Ill be happy with 200 - 250k first week , if the game is good. I hope it can sell at least 2 mln lifetime. People will make threads without a doubt even if its sells good its just the way it works. I think lifetime if its below 1.25 mln you can say the game underperformed (if the game delivers).

Why is anyone thinking that 1m is realistic? The Conduit may be hyped online, but not a single offline gamer I've talked to has heard of it. And these are the people that buy an FPS every week. The Wii base won't have heard of it either.

Commercial success: Probably 500k @ $5 per copy to the dev? That would be $2.5 million revenue and would pay each of their ~130 staff full-time + costs for two years, which is probably how long it took to make seeing as they were releasing other profitable games in parallel.

lol, it won't do 200k lifetime. First week sales of 75k would be on track for that. Won't stop me buying it though.

I could do the same in the opposite direction.  Ready?

"Doesn't matter.  No matter how much it sells, even if it's 5k in its first week, all of the Wii fans will say it'll pick up with legs, the game only cost 3 dollars and a pocket full of dreams to make, and if it had been on an HD console then HVS would've gone bankrupt."

i would like 300k and 1.3 m lifetime