If that's the case, then he doesn't actually mean that this is the last console generation. But what he's saying is that this is the last change we're going to see in standardized hardware for a long time - and he's wrong. The industry cannot be allowed to stagnate, not now of all times.

He does say this is the last console generation. Now, unless you want to say that he's suggesting that the Wii isn't new hardware either...?

Wii is just two GCs duct-taped together remember?  It's no more powerful than the Xbox and so, no, many do no consider it 'next gen'.  

If a Xbox 720 and PS4 remain the same technically but with new interface devices and new online/software solutions (and Nintendo goes to Wii HD) then that won't be viewed so much as a new generation as it is a revamping of current generation.   Like DS - DS Lite - DSi. 

From a development stand point it's the same gen, however from a consumer perspective it may be 'next gen' just like the Wii is.

This could be last gen for 'HC' consoles. I doubt that MS & Sony will publish consoles with cutting edge technology anymore. Neither they should sell their consoles for loss. Hopefully they have learned that or they will fall. Even if they publish only a little more powerful consoles in next gen, it will raise development cost of games. One way to make development cost less would be using PC hardware. Well, that would bring some other problems too, but anyway they just can't continue like this.

Remember the thread we had about console generations as defined in wikipedia chronologically vs console generations as in technical advancement? I think that double-entendre is biting back.

What I think the guy is saying is that it is not commercially viable for the foreseeable future to think of complete platform overhauls, because with those come increased development costs for toolchains, retraining etc.
What we might see is updating of generally stable platforms. Think of a PS4 that has the new cell with more SPEs and a better GPU and more memory and a bigger HD and a faster BluRay drive... but it is still backward compatible with PS3 and uses the updated versions of the same devkits. Same for the x720 or whatever its name: its new devkit would use dx10 and dx11.
Then if you want you can sell gyroscopic or IR-based wiimote-like thingies, boards, VR goggles or whatver, but again the core of the platform isn't overhauled every 5 or 6 years.

A "softer" evolution like in PCs, at the end of a day, where nobody talks about generations.
And basically what Nintendo did in the GC>Wii transition, though I have been whipped before for advancing this idea :)

How is Pachter the delusional one here when someone actually says (Quote):

"in 2012 the PS3 will be the leading platform for software sales and that both Microsoft and Nintendo will be forced to launch new platforms"

I think more consoles will release from Sony, Nintendo and Microsoft however the jump in specs will not be say the jump from PS2 to PS3. For Sony PS4 would be simply the PS3 specs but on steroids so that way they get a very powerful system which would not cost $600. Nintendo will go HD but stick to the motion controls and lastly Microsoft will make the biggest jump in tech.

All IMO of course, yes I actually have to say "IMO" as some think Santa has a gun to my head making me write this trash. :/

My thoughts are that patcher should not be payed for doing what he does. He is never right. Ever. Half the users on this very board could do a better job predicting the future of gaming, and I think that's going low. He simply isn't a man that anyone should listen to, he has proved that time and time again.

I'd love to be well payed to come up with clueless guesses that turns out wrong 90% of the time. What a nice job.

I wish i will be as wise and handsome as Pachter when i grow big.
Michael, you're my hero.

Frankly, Pachter wasn't the only one with stupidities, as Benga pointed out.

Anyway, nice to see Pachter make the same notion about unbearable costs that Nintendo did a decade ago. Better late than ever.
The only reason why Pachter is noticing the thing, is that the HD devs are losing so much money, that is partially because of Wii sucking up the sales.

Another problem with Pachters prediction is, that the industry needs a product cycle of standardised hardware. If we look at hardware and software sales, hardware sales peak first and after that, software sales peak too, which cause a decline in the industry.

Also, new stuff is invented all the time, that would make a good use in videogames that offer new experience, that is what the generational change is about.
Of course, the industry can get disrupted, but the disruptor is not going to be PC-like product cycle.

Although i find it quite unlikely, i wouldn't bet against it in the current climate.

I do think we'll see incremental upgrades, blurring the lines between "real" hardware updates. Just like the DS / DSi - in many ways the DSi is a completely new handheld - but no one is treating it as such. Sales figures counting towards the DS... ;)