You mean Final Fantasy 7 64?

One other thing that hasn't been mentioned is the fact that Nintendo really is 'ruining' it to some extent for the other consoles. Had Nintendo released an HD compatible console with somewhat comparable specs with Xbox 360/PS3. Then all sales on this generation would have went towards HD games.

Games like GTA IV, CoD 4, RE5, could have all been ported over to the Wii or ported to the 360/PS3 with ease. Which allows developers to recoup their money on the whole user base.

The way things are now, HD owners / Wii owners are divided almost 50/50. Once Nintendo moves into Wii HD, you will see the whole industry drop in cost because that user base just expanded by about 50 million + people.

Rpruett said: One other thing that hasn't been mentioned is the fact that Nintendo really is 'ruining' it to some extent for the other consoles. Had Nintendo released an HD compatible console with somewhat comparable specs with Xbox 360/PS3. Then all sales on this generation would have went towards HD games. Games like GTA IV, CoD 4, RE5, could have all been ported over to the Wii or ported to the 360/PS3 with ease. Which allows developers to recoup their money on the whole user base. The way things are now, HD owners / Wii owners are divided almost 50/50. Once Nintendo moves into Wii HD, you will see the whole industry drop in cost because that user base just expanded by about 50 million + people.

All that would to would be at best to postpone the crash we're now seeing. When expenses increase faster than revenue the bubble must pop at some point.

You're also forgetting that a HD Wii would be quite expensive and probably sell much less, since Nintendo doesn't like to sell hardware at a loss. Not to mention that Nintendo themselves could go under in such a scenario which would make the industry crash even worse.

 

NJ5 said: Rpruett said: One other thing that hasn't been mentioned is the fact that Nintendo really is 'ruining' it to some extent for the other consoles. Had Nintendo released an HD compatible console with somewhat comparable specs with Xbox 360/PS3. Then all sales on this generation would have went towards HD games. Games like GTA IV, CoD 4, RE5, could have all been ported over to the Wii or ported to the 360/PS3 with ease. Which allows developers to recoup their money on the whole user base. The way things are now, HD owners / Wii owners are divided almost 50/50. Once Nintendo moves into Wii HD, you will see the whole industry drop in cost because that user base just expanded by about 50 million + people. All that would to would be at best to postpone the crash we're now seeing. When expenses increase faster than revenue the bubble must pop at some point. You're also forgetting that a HD Wii would be quite expensive and probably sell much less, since Nintendo doesn't like to sell hardware at a loss. Not to mention that Nintendo themselves could go under in such a scenario which would make the industry crash even worse.

Why would it be postponing any crash?  With 50 million (Hell even suggesting the Wii sells significantly less,  30 million).  You still have a lot more options as it comes to games and development of one game is fairly universal.    Right now you have to budget for your HD games AND Wii games.   To justify HD games,  you need more revenue. 

Obviously, other cost cutting mechanisms need to be put in place (And I'm sure they will) but when all consoles move into the HD generation, the developers will have a lot more to work with in terms of sales as their games will reach an even broader market (ESPECIALLY) the good games.

Sometimes with these games, it's a case of selling about 400,000- 500,000 more copies to make profit.  (Which adding the 50,000,000 Wii users into the equation) you very easily could grab that.

 

Rpruett said: NJ5 said: Rpruett said: One other thing that hasn't been mentioned is the fact that Nintendo really is 'ruining' it to some extent for the other consoles. Had Nintendo released an HD compatible console with somewhat comparable specs with Xbox 360/PS3. Then all sales on this generation would have went towards HD games. Games like GTA IV, CoD 4, RE5, could have all been ported over to the Wii or ported to the 360/PS3 with ease. Which allows developers to recoup their money on the whole user base. The way things are now, HD owners / Wii owners are divided almost 50/50. Once Nintendo moves into Wii HD, you will see the whole industry drop in cost because that user base just expanded by about 50 million + people. All that would to would be at best to postpone the crash we're now seeing. When expenses increase faster than revenue the bubble must pop at some point. You're also forgetting that a HD Wii would be quite expensive and probably sell much less, since Nintendo doesn't like to sell hardware at a loss. Not to mention that Nintendo themselves could go under in such a scenario which would make the industry crash even worse.   Why would it be postponing any crash? With 50 million (Hell even suggesting the Wii sells significantly less, 30 million). You still have a lot more options as it comes to games and development of one game is fairly universal. Right now you have to budget for your HD games AND Wii games. To justify HD games, you need more revenue. Obviously, other cost cutting mechanisms need to be put in place (And I'm sure they will) but when all consoles move into the HD generationm, the developers will have a lot more to work with in terms of sales as their games will reach an even broader market (ESPECIALLY) the good games. Sometimes with these games, it's a case of selling about 400,000 more copies. (Which adding the 50,000,000 Wii users into the equation) you very easily could grab that.

As I said, the timing of the crash is just a function of how fast expenses increase relative to revenue. If all the platforms were HD, development costs would be high across the board, with no system to use as a cash cow.

The trend of expenses increasing faster than revenue has been a constant throughout the last decade (or longer), with publishers making increasingly higher-risk productions. Haven't you noticed that publishers have been going bankrupt and consolidating for quite a while? The problem is that now even the biggest and more consolidated players are having big losses (like EA).

No matter how well a potential Wii HD would have sold, the industry would still be trending toward a crash rather than away from it.

Regarding the potential sales of a Wii HD, I'm not talking "30 million" significantly less. I'm talking of the possibility of a complete flop. The Wii has now set a name for itself and it doesn't need price cuts to sell fantastically, but that doesn't mean it would have been such a success if it cost $500-$600 instead. It's much harder to capture the mass market with that price tag, especially when the PS3 had better brand name due to the PS2.

What you're doing is assuming a different scenario with the same (or similar) Wii install base, which IMO would not have happened.

 

"When expenses increase faster than revenue the bubble must pop at some point"
Expenses went up all of a sudden when moving to HD and very big projects, you can now expect them to slowly decrease as the development of tools and reusable middleware software starts to pay off. On the other side, revenue will slowly grow as the install base increases. In this light, I can't see how that ratio can't but get better over time from now on.

"Not to mention that Nintendo themselves could go under in such a scenario which would make the industry crash even worse"
How would Nintendo going under touch the other two consoles? They don't share multiplatform development. Shovelware producers would move to the 360/PS3 platform, just as last gen they worked on the PS2, though the increased entrance point cost would cut some of them. Big deal.
Third-party, middle-sized projects like Sega's would have some troubles with increased costs, but if other developers can do it, why shouldn't they? Do anybody really think that MadWorld would have ended with less profit if it also came out on PS3 and 360? I'm pretty sure its stylized art wouldnt have costed significantly more in HD, and the demographic would have been more favourable.
Projects like da Blob would probably live on as XBL/PSN games, exactly like Braid did, and still turn some profit.

WereKitten said: "When expenses increase faster than revenue the bubble must pop at some point" Expenses went up all of a sudden when moving to HD and very big projects, you can now expect them to slowly decrease as the development of tools and reusable middleware software starts to pay off. On the other side, revenue will slowly grow as the install base increases. In this light, I can't see how that ratio can't but get better over time from now on. "Not to mention that Nintendo themselves could go under in such a scenario which would make the industry crash even worse" How would Nintendo going under touch the other two consoles? They don't share multiplatform development. Shovelware producers would move to the 360/PS3 platform, just as last gen they worked on the PS2, though the increased entrance point cost would cut some of them. Big deal. Third-party, middle-sized projects like Sega's would have some troubles with increased costs, but if other developers can do it, why shouldn't they? Do anybody really think that MadWorld would have ended with less profit if it also came out on PS3 and 360? I'm pretty sure its stylized art wouldnt have costed significantly more in HD, and the demographic would have been more favourable. Projects like da Blob would probably live on as XNL/PSN games, exactly like Braid did.

Regarding your first point, I think it's widely accepted that development costs have been rising very fast for more than a decade. It's not a problem exclusive to this generation, it just so happens that the costs finally became unbearable during this gen.

As for the second point, think about what would happen if there was only PS3 and 360. No cheaper Wii development to make easier cash on small projects. No expanded userbase captured by the Wii to prop up publishers who are taking advantage of that demographic. I think you're vastly underestimating the consequences of a potential Wii/Wii HD flop.

 

NJ5 said: Rpruett said: NJ5 said: Rpruett said: One other thing that hasn't been mentioned is the fact that Nintendo really is 'ruining' it to some extent for the other consoles. Had Nintendo released an HD compatible console with somewhat comparable specs with Xbox 360/PS3. Then all sales on this generation would have went towards HD games. Games like GTA IV, CoD 4, RE5, could have all been ported over to the Wii or ported to the 360/PS3 with ease. Which allows developers to recoup their money on the whole user base. The way things are now, HD owners / Wii owners are divided almost 50/50. Once Nintendo moves into Wii HD, you will see the whole industry drop in cost because that user base just expanded by about 50 million + people. All that would to would be at best to postpone the crash we're now seeing. When expenses increase faster than revenue the bubble must pop at some point. You're also forgetting that a HD Wii would be quite expensive and probably sell much less, since Nintendo doesn't like to sell hardware at a loss. Not to mention that Nintendo themselves could go under in such a scenario which would make the industry crash even worse.   Why would it be postponing any crash? With 50 million (Hell even suggesting the Wii sells significantly less, 30 million). You still have a lot more options as it comes to games and development of one game is fairly universal. Right now you have to budget for your HD games AND Wii games. To justify HD games, you need more revenue. Obviously, other cost cutting mechanisms need to be put in place (And I'm sure they will) but when all consoles move into the HD generationm, the developers will have a lot more to work with in terms of sales as their games will reach an even broader market (ESPECIALLY) the good games. Sometimes with these games, it's a case of selling about 400,000 more copies. (Which adding the 50,000,000 Wii users into the equation) you very easily could grab that.   As I said, the timing of the crash is just a function of how fast expenses increase relative to revenue. If all the platforms were HD, development costs would be high across the board, with no system to use as a cash cow. Development costs would be high across the board (Like they already are) and revenue would greatly increase (Far more than it currently is).  There would be ZERO devotion to specific Wii divisions or Wii games.  It would be driven by ONE game that all three platforms could enjoy.   The trend of expenses increasing faster than revenue has been a constant throughout the last decade (or longer), with publishers making increasingly higher-risk productions. Haven't you noticed that publishers have been going bankrupt and consolidating for quite a while? Well, it's hardly a symptom of the HD generation then.  This is an expenditure problem for the developers.    No matter how well a potential Wii HD would have sold, the industry would still be trending toward a crash rather than away from it. Follow me here,   Right now,  Developers have to devote time, money and staff to specifically making Wii versions of games and while those games might be profitable because they are just cheaper to make in general therefore they need far less sales to forge a profit.     HD Development has tons of revenue but also has tons of cost.  The simple answer is increase your revenue while reducing cost.  How would HD development increase overall revenue and reduce cost in order to form profit?    Simple,  get their HD games into as many peoples hands as possible giving them far greater revenue which flips the scales back into profitability for them.    Regarding the potential sales of a Wii HD, I'm not talking "30 million" significantly less. I'm talking of the possibility of a complete flop. The Wii has now set a name for itself and it doesn't need price cuts to sell fantastically, but that doesn't mean it would have been such a success if it cost $500-$600 instead. It's much harder to capture the mass market, especially when the PS3 had better brand name due to the PS2. 400 Dollars would have been all the Wii needed to do initially. People are still buying the Wii with the threat of Nintendo INCREASING the price.  If Nintendo had HD graphics PLUS their motion controls?  People would have gobbled it up.    What you're doing is assuming a different scenario with the same (or similar) Wii install base, which IMO would not have happened. The Wii has sold well, regardless of price.  You know that.  It still outsells the 200 dollar Xbox 360.  Why?   People love the Wii and are hooked on the Wii.  Being close in price of the 360 would have resulted in a similar result that we see right now. Especially when you are forgetting the benefits of having HD graphics (A lot more quality software favoring Nintendo).

 

 

My point (which I have stated in different ways throughout the thread) is that expenses have been increasing faster than revenue for a long time, and that certainly would still happen even with a Wii HD. I'm not saying revenue wouldn't increase, I'm saying it wouldn't increase enough to stop the crash from eventually happening. Did you see the graph from Factor 5 depicting the increase in development cost?



It's a problem which has been going on for a while and got even worse according this gen. I don't care much to discuss the semantics of whether it's a HD problem or not. The point is that the problem is more pronounced on the HD platforms than on the Wii.



It could make profitability better, but the problems I pointed out would still be happening (slower or not).



Would the mass market have gobbled it up? Would the so called core gamers have gone for Nintendo even with third parties favoring the PS3 and 360 right from the start, assuming equally-priced consoles? It's uncertain at best.



See above.

 

NJ5 said: Regarding your first point, I think it's widely accepted that development costs have been rising very fast for more than a decade. It's not a problem exclusive to this generation, it just so happens that the costs finally became unbearable during this gen. As for the second point, think about what would happen if there was only PS3 and 360. No cheaper Wii development to make easier cash on small projects. No expanded userbase captured by the Wii to prop up publishers who are taking advantage of that demographic. I think you're vastly underestimating the consequences of a potential Wii/Wii HD flop.

The costs went up because the project size and complexity went up. They had to add more man-hours for artists to draw HD textures, motion capture, more modellers etc. But the project size is not ever-increasing with time.

Take Uncharted 2 vs Uncharted. Do you think the second is going to cost much more than the first? They will have to code less in the engine and tools department. They will have a comparable quantity of assets, and some reciclying will take place. Overall they will most probably have a better profit from the second.

As for the second, not all publishers today are relying on Wii side projects to finance their HD ones. And as I said yet, smaller projects can live as XBL/PSN games and turn good profits if they are good. If they are bad... well, are we really crying for the shovelware now?