I don't know about that. I'm thinking it has a shot at the million mark. Plus, there's still plenty of stuff we don't know about the game yet.

Really, it could go either way I suppose. There's a lot of factors that we just can't predict with much accuracy at this point.

there's no way it'll reach a million. the audience it's targeting is very, very limited. it's a niche game.

if you're targeting a niche, how do you expect to be a million seller? and this niche that heavy rain is trying to get is nowhere near a million strong.

It is absolutely a niche game, but one with a cult following and high expectations behind it.

It could really end up either way, and I believe the critical reception it receives will be a deciding factor in whether it does or not.

that cult following, even if 100% of them buy the game, does not count anywhere near a million.

even if every internet fanboy of heavy rain and every member of the niche community buys it, there's no way it'll reach a million.

that's just the nature of niche games. the audience is very small. even if it gets a 95+ on metacritic, it's still not going to attract that many people.

games like ico are fabulous, but they failed to sell all that well despite great reviews simply because of their niche genre target.

anyway i'm just saying these things because people might get deluded into thinking "it's a great game, therefore it'll sell great!" and "it's going to save sony!"

i just don't want to see these silly statements.

So you think that if you're not a hardcore adventure/mystery game buff, you won't buy it?

I'm thinking this title has a good shot at bringing in a respectable amount of people who are not familiar with this genre. I mean, just looking at the pictures and watching the footage of the game is fairly breathtaking. This game oozes 'next gen', if I can even get away with saying that this far into it. :)

A lot of this comes down to marketing. Now, i agree with your post to a degree. It's not mainstream. If any niche title has a chance of attracting mainstream gamers; this is certainly it.

great graphics =/= great sales. we all know that by now.

I totally agree with you here. Definitely not a system seller, nor will it save Sony. I think it has a shot, however slight, at hitting a million.

Not ruling that out this early.

it's like valkyria chronicles mate.

we all LOVE it (i love it above all games out there).

but that love isn't going to translate to great sales because WE are a niche.

no matter how CGI-quality hypes heavy rain, he's limited to the borders of the niche too.

As far as we know, Shadow of the Colossus was far past a million and ICO was close.

I'm not claiming that Heavy Rain will undoubtedly reach a million lifetime, it'll be close either way.
But at the same time, I wouldn't rule out the possibility, especially considering how little we know about the game.

shadow of the colossus is an action/adventure game. it's not a niche.

ico, however, is a real niche, and it took a long ass time before it got where it is now.

heavy rain is just like ico. sure, it might reach like 800k or something. but it'll take a long, long time. don't forget, the ps3's userbase is also very small at the moment.