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Forums - Gaming - Gaming BUSINESS MODEL is changing, no more X360 sucessor

Onyxmeth on 17 March 2009
shio said:

That's an awkward thinking. Europe had the choice of choosing between PC and Consoles, and today PC is completely dominating Europe with the exception of 4/5 countries. Even have a look at Japan - it once was the mecha for consoles, but now the Japanese console industry is declining while PC's online gaming in Japan is actually increasing fairly it seems.

 

Huh? So PC is dominating in 1/5 countries then? How is that domination? Sounds like 20% to me.

Also the console decline probably has a lot more to do with the rise of handheld gaming in Japan than the rise of PC gaming. What exactly is being developed with Japanese audiences in mind on PC? Almost everything seems to be American or European influenced in nature.

 



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shio on 17 March 2009
Onyxmeth said:
shio said:

That's an awkward thinking. Europe had the choice of choosing between PC and Consoles, and today PC is completely dominating Europe with the exception of 4/5 countries. Even have a look at Japan - it once was the mecha for consoles, but now the Japanese console industry is declining while PC's online gaming in Japan is actually increasing fairly it seems.

 

Huh? So PC is dominating in 1/5 countries then? How is that domination? Sounds like 20% to me.

Also the console decline probably has a lot more to do with the rise of handheld gaming in Japan than the rise of PC gaming. What exactly is being developed with Japanese audiences in mind on PC? Almost everything seems to be American or European influenced in nature.

 

I mean only 4 or 5 european countries are console-centric. It's hard to tell sometimes if some1 is being sarcastic or just a complete bore.

The japanese developers are making their own PC games. So we start seeing more and more MMORPGs like that Persona MMO and Monster Hunter Online. Imo, MMORPGs are the perfect fit for japanse gamers since they can create their own lolicons and keep "grinding" monsters like they already did on JRPGs.

 



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Gh0st4lifE on 17 March 2009
shio said:
Gh0st4lifE said:
shio said:
Gh0st4lifE said:
shio said:

Retail is a very small part of PC gaming - It was only 30% of PC gaming revenue in 2007, and it should be much smaller today. This is due to the shifting of revenue to digital.

Digital and Online Revenue is increasing much, much faster than the console industry. PC's Digital Distribution Services such as Steam and Gamersgate increase over 100% yearly, and China's Online Gaming Revenue was up over 75% in 2008.

Hell, even EA's CEO came out and said PC Gaming was growing faster than teh Console Industry,

 

That's quite a claim you've got there... Let's see if you can get a source for it.

I agree with you on PC having online distribution ahead of consoles, and on the efficiency of such distribution. Retail accounts for 1/3 of a games' price. Consoles will go there too.

About Chinese PC gaming increasing 75% yoy you'd better add that China has a very specific market made of their own games and with a very specific revenue model (free or low-cost entry price, and then numerous pay-for-download contents). It is not really as if Chinese gaming was an extension of the WW market, rather a parallel universe for the moment being.

If we get back to the point, it's not PC vs Consoles, but the future of consoles.

http://www.reuters.com/article/pressRelease/idUS131586+19-Aug-2008+BW20080819

Exclusive PCGA Study Shows PC Gaming a $10.7B Industry, Reveals
Explosive Online Growth

LEIPZIG, Germany--(Business Wire)--
The PC Gaming Alliance (PCGA) today unveiled the key findings from
its first "Horizons" Report, an exclusive research study of the PC
gaming industry worldwide. Speaking at the Games Convention
Developer's Conference in Leipzig, PCGA president Randy Stude
announced that PC gaming was a $10.7 billion industry during the year
of 2007, with retail sales accounting for just 30 percent of total
revenues. According to the report, growth was largely driven by online
revenues from Asia, the world's largest market, which is approaching
half of total worldwide sales.

Online PC gaming revenue led the way in 2007 with $4.8 billion,
nearly double the worldwide retail sales numbers for PC games. Digital
distribution sales approached $2 billion, while advertising revenues
from websites, portals, and in-game ads accounted for $800 million.
Both are expected to grow substantially as major developers and
publishers begin to adopt formal strategies to take advantage of new
online opportunities.

"Our analysis clearly shows incredible growth in online PC gaming,
proof that this industry is far stronger than anyone has reported,"
said Stude. "Today's consumers shop where they live - online."

I'll show you one better, this is from DFC:

"DFC estimates there are over 260 million PC gamers worldwide, and that should grow to close to 350 million by 2012."

And what's wrong with China?! Are you REALLY excluding China from the revenue because they don't pay for the same type of games?! LOL. Hey, let's exclude Japan too, and how about UK (they buy too much Wii Fit), or better yet, let's exclude North-America because they're the only ones that buy Xbox 360 that much.
If you were paying attention, you'd see that there are many "Chinese" games being developed in the Western world, like Star Wars: The Old republic, Battlefield Heroes, Quake Live, Battleforge and Need for Speed World Online.

 

Of 2007's 10.7 billion Total WW PC revenue

-------------------------------------------------------

Retail revenue : 30 %

Online PC gaming revenue  : 46 %

Digital distribution : 18 %

Advertising : 6 %

------------------------------------------------------

Wow, interesting.

 

About DFC's numbers. Such numbers have already been published in previous studies:

http://www.edge-online.com/news/study-claims-pc-market-largest

but a PC gamer varies from a secretary playing Zuma 15 minutes per week to a no-life spending his whole income in virtual gnomes. That's not even a segment to start with.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

As for the chinese market i wouldn't take it into account yet. It's my personal opinion that they will in the end play on consoles instead of PCs. They never had the choice between PCs and consoles anyway.

Plus, they have a very peculiar relation with gaming. During the cultural revolution games were considered too individualistic and heuristic, immoral, incompatible with the communism. It's somehow tabou to play on a console, a system dedicated exclusively or almost to games.

They also produce their own games and might keep it that way the way japanese do. But unlike japanese theirs aren't exported, not yet anyway. So they don't influence the industry that much. Even their business model is unfit for the world. They are willing to pay huge amounts for online additional content and very little for the game itself.

That's an awkward thinking. Europe had the choice of choosing between PC and Consoles, and today PC is completely dominating Europe with the exception of 4/5 countries. Even have a look at Japan - it once was the mecha for consoles, but now the Japanese console industry is declining while PC's online gaming in Japan is actually increasing fairly it seems.

 

 

How would PC dominate consoles in Europe when Asia accounts for half of PCs' revenue ?

That leaves 5 billions for the rest of the world and Europe 3 ; how is the european console market going to be less than three billion $ ?

And about my supposed awkward thinking. Would you take the chinese growing car industry (a market previously exempted of cars) as an example of the worldwide situation (a market saturated with cars) ?



God i hate fanboys, almost as much as they hate facts

 

“If you want to build a ship, don't drum up people together to collect wood and don't assign them tasks and work, but rather teach them to long for the endless immensity of the sea” Antoine de St-Exupery

  +2Q  /  -2N  (to be read in french)

arsenicazure on 17 March 2009

The only problem with PC gaming.. apart from a keyboard n mouse(yes it helps in RTS and FPS games thats about it), is that most PC's comes with Intel Graphics Accelerators.. thats like putting a ps2 graphics chipset in an xbox 360, and thats prolly why PC gaming may grow fast.. but it wont overtake consoles/handhelds.. not unless the PC morphs into a powerful tablet itself.And not unless Nvidia/ATI discrete chips get used in all PC's.



Doubt is not a pleasant condition, but certainty is absurd.

owner of : atari 2600, commodore 64, NES,gameboy,atari lynx, genesis, saturn,neogeo,DC,PS2,GC,X360, Wii

5 THINGS I'd like to see before i knock out:

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c. redesgined PS controller

d. SEGA back in the console business

e. M$ out of the OS business

Onyxmeth on 17 March 2009
shio said:
Onyxmeth said:
shio said:

That's an awkward thinking. Europe had the choice of choosing between PC and Consoles, and today PC is completely dominating Europe with the exception of 4/5 countries. Even have a look at Japan - it once was the mecha for consoles, but now the Japanese console industry is declining while PC's online gaming in Japan is actually increasing fairly it seems.

 

Huh? So PC is dominating in 1/5 countries then? How is that domination? Sounds like 20% to me.

Also the console decline probably has a lot more to do with the rise of handheld gaming in Japan than the rise of PC gaming. What exactly is being developed with Japanese audiences in mind on PC? Almost everything seems to be American or European influenced in nature.

 

I mean only 4 or 5 european countries are console-centric. It's hard to tell sometimes if some1 is being sarcastic or just a complete bore.

The japanese developers are making their own PC games. So we start seeing more and more MMORPGs like that Persona MMO and Monster Hunter Online. Imo, MMORPGs are the perfect fit for japanse gamers since they can create their own lolicons and keep "grinding" monsters like they already did on JRPGs.

 

So youre basing your entire theory of PCs increasing over consoles in Japan on two unproven MMOs?

 



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slowmo on 17 March 2009

I've read everything you've posted Shio and my belief is PC gaming is still not expanding quicker than consoles in the main markets. China shouldn't be included anyway given the very closed nature of the country.

By the time this console generation ends there will have been more consoles sold in total than ever before in my opinion. Also PC gaming goes in cycles, the mini slump its suffered will vanish in the next year or two.



shio on 17 March 2009
Gh0st4lifE said:
shio said:

That's an awkward thinking. Europe had the choice of choosing between PC and Consoles, and today PC is completely dominating Europe with the exception of 4/5 countries. Even have a look at Japan - it once was the mecha for consoles, but now the Japanese console industry is declining while PC's online gaming in Japan is actually increasing fairly it seems.

 

How would PC dominate consoles in Europe when Asia accounts for half of PCs' revenue ?

That leaves 5 billions for the rest of the world and Europe 3 ; how is the european console market going to be less than three billion $ ?

And about my supposed awkward thinking. Would you take the chinese growing car industry (a market previously exempted of cars) as an example of the worldwide situation (a market saturated with cars) ?

Asia was approaching half of PC's revenue in 2007, didn't reach it back then. It should be maybe be $4.3 billions. Either way, most of the rest of the revenue ($6.2 billions) should be made in Europe, which is alot considering Europe is not as big a market as North-America.

In 2007, US:

Retail Console games: $6.6 billions.

Retail PC games: $900 millions.
Online Subscriptions: $1 billion (nearly all of it from PC obviously)
Digital Distribution = Retail x 2/3 = $600 millions (took the 2-to-3 of DD compared to Retail in the Horizon Report)
= $2.5 billions + little stuff like ad revenue = $2.8 billions + 10% (Canada) = $3 billions.

That gives a 2.2-to-1 proportion, which is pretty awesome for PC in NA (31% marketshare for PC, 69% for the 4 consoles).

Europe:
10.7 - 4.2 - 3= $3.5 billions

Knowing that European console market is smaller than NA's, it prolly was something like $5.3bn. 40% PC, 60% Consoles.

Thing is, unlike the car industry, PC gaming is increasing well in the western world, so that analogy doesn't work.

Onyxmeth said:
shio said:
Onyxmeth said:

Huh? So PC is dominating in 1/5 countries then? How is that domination? Sounds like 20% to me.

Also the console decline probably has a lot more to do with the rise of handheld gaming in Japan than the rise of PC gaming. What exactly is being developed with Japanese audiences in mind on PC? Almost everything seems to be American or European influenced in nature.

 

I mean only 4 or 5 european countries are console-centric. It's hard to tell sometimes if some1 is being sarcastic or just a complete bore.

The japanese developers are making their own PC games. So we start seeing more and more MMORPGs like that Persona MMO and Monster Hunter Online. Imo, MMORPGs are the perfect fit for japanse gamers since they can create their own lolicons and keep "grinding" monsters like they already did on JRPGs.

 

So youre basing your entire theory of PCs increasing over consoles in Japan on two unproven MMOs?

 

Capcom claimed Monster Hunter Online was the most successful MMO in Japan or something. But my point is that there's more and more japanese MMOs coming that proves PC Online Revenue in Japan is healthier than ever.

slowmo said:
I've read everything you've posted Shio and my belief is PC gaming is still not expanding quicker than consoles in the main markets. China shouldn't be included anyway given the very closed nature of the country.

By the time this console generation ends there will have been more consoles sold in total than ever before in my opinion. Also PC gaming goes in cycles, the mini slump its suffered will vanish in the next year or two.

China is opening up for PC gaming. The great Relic entertainment is launching/has launched Company of Heroes Online and EA is releasing Need for Speed World Online in Asia first. And let's not even talk about Blizzard. No doubt much more games will be released to catter all regions. There's also many good asian PC games coming to the western world, such as Aion and Otherland.

Actually, PC's Digital Distribution is growing faster than China's Online. DD Services like Steam and Gamersgate are increasing over 100% every year. Stardock's Impulse is nearing 1 million users and it hasn't even reached it's first birthday. Amazon just released their own service a few weeks ago.



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sponnyroad on 17 March 2009

PC's were never designed to play video games. Consoles were.

 

Also, asia has a large PC gaming market because of MMO's. Asians like RPG's. While the Western World like to shoot and kill.



kibebr on 18 March 2009

I agree with sponnyroad, console is a solution box, PC is a FIX box, it´s eazier to populate thru consoles enbedded to other equip´s like refrigerators and ht modules than just adapt a PC... even if PC market is REALLY HUGE



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NJ5 on 18 March 2009
Jaaau! said:

The PC will disappear, and eventually, hardware as in PS3, 360 or Wii, too . In the same way software is shifting from physical media to DL, hardware processing will be streamed just like video on demand. For everyone to own a processing unit at home, it's just not efficient if you think about it.

You mean playing games on a remote server which streams the game's video back to you? That's crazy, the lag would be unbearable.

Streaming is fine for TV and video-on-demand or even office applications, but not for games. I could see storage being centralized (i.e. the game streams content from a server, with little local storage), but that's it.

 



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