After digging through the financial reports of the big three to establish lifetime to date hardware shipments for Wii, PS3, and 360 every 3 months since Dec 06', I began to formulate my prediction.  Here we see the lifetime shipments of the big three from from the time all three consoles were available to June 30 (which is the most recent shipment data).

Through June 2007, Vgchartz has Wii at ~95% sell through of shipments (that is accurate historically when comparing the top selling console of the generation - in NPD/MC/Chart Track vs. manufacturer shipments), while PS3 and Xbox 360 are at 85-86% sell through.  Note that Microsoft was at 75% sell through in Dec, but by shipping only 1.2 million units in 2007 (through June) much of the excess has beeen cleared from the retail channel.

To estimate shipments for September 2007, I looked at significant releases (DQ:S, Halo 3, Metroid Prime 3, Madden, Lair, etc.) and Vgchartz sell through.

The data for the September quarter will include 13 weeks of Vgchartz data.  8 weeks of data is currently in (for now, I'm using the 46k (Wii), 16k (PS3), 2k (360) MC numbers since VGC numbers for Japan aren't in).  So here is the math w/Japan:

Wii - 10.96 (current total) - 8.83 million (July 1 total) = 2.13 million

2.13 million/8 weeks ~ 266,250/week

266,250 x 13 weeks = 3,461,250 units sold from July 2-Sept 30 (the 13 week period).

8.83 + 3.46 million = 12.29 million (Sept 30 sell through)

Wii sellthrough = (shipments)(.95)

Let Shipments = X

12.29 = (x)(.95)

X = 12.93 million

Rounding up to appease shareholders...13.0 million shipped

Now Vgchartz may also be adjusted in the coming month as we get new data, so I put the range at 12.6 million to 13.4 million shipped.

This is the methodology I used for all three consoles.  The scenarios in the table assume Vgchartz is slightly undertracking all three consoles (i.e. I have listed the best-case but realistic shipping scenarios - at least as I see them). 

With all of that in mind, here is my estimated shipment totals (in millions) for Wii, PS3, and 360 through 2008.  Remember, these are shipment totals - sell through will not be this high - and numbers from Sept on are estimated, and best case scenarios.

Interesting. You see Wii going on an average of 4-5 million per normal quarter and then an 8-9 million in the holiday quarter.

41 million shipped for Wii as of the end of Dec 2008 isn't impossible. I'd say that's actually one of the more reasonable numbers.

I think this makes perfect sense. Um although it is based on constant averages I think it does make room for tolerances anyways so we'll see how this turns out.

Ummm, the Ps3 is Very under-estimated

Same with he xbox 360

WII is VERY over-estimated

@Game_Boy

Uh, please, formula's will not apply here, this gen has been so unexpected so far anything can change

@Soriku

so your saying Ps3 will SELL under 10 million until the end of 08 WITH titles like Killzone 2, MGs4, FF13, GTA IV, GT 5

the bias is obvious

& xbox 360 is low,

WII I will expect at 40 million so I agree with you there

Way under tracking the PS3 by the end of next year i would expect atleast 25mil, and over for the sales of the wii for this year. But great data as always, its a great read.

Great analysis (correct spelling?) The Source. By the way, the Wii getting to Gamecube lifetime numbers by March... amazing.

It seems like all consoles are overestimated.

25mil sold to people, GTA4, Killzone2, GT5, FF13, MGS4, plus many other games that will sell 500k-1mil. The PS3 will explode near the end of 08.