Becuase that is not real analysis; it's a prediction. You only looked at the problem halfway. The Wii and PSP are very close in terms of sales. Additionally, you discredit any other idea by saying "Japan is handheld oriented." The whole appears when we look at Japan's hardware sales from the last two weeks and see, why look, the PS3 is doing the best in Japan thanks to software. If you were good at this, you'd realize that we are in a software business. Since games are about content, people buy the software. The hardware is only a means to play the software.

It's not that your idea is wrong. But it was so empty that I could poke holes right though it. I could go on, but Family Guy is on :P.

I don't underestimate them, I understand them just fine. But you seem to forget that Monster Hunter isn't the only reason the PSP performs so well in Japan. It's Monster Hunter, Crisis Core, the various Gundam games, and a variety of colors and models. Monster Hunter is definitely the biggest series for the PSP in Japan and it does a lot to drive hardware sales, but we still have no idea how successful it will be on the Wii. Brain Age 2 on the DS sold over 5 million in Japan, while Big Brain Academy on the Wii only sold 400k. There are a bunch of other examples that prove that success on one platform doesn't necessarily equal success on another. Dragon Quest is a big series, and I expect it to move a lot of hardware. Still, a gap of nearly 4 million (and growing every week) won't just go away because of 2 games. The PSP, even after the launch of MH2G and the PSP-3000 and a bunch of new colors has only moved an additional 3.1 million units over the course of a whole year. Not only that, but the PSP won't be standing still. The Wii will have to not only sell more every week, but have an advantage in numbers that will eventually close the gap between the two consoles.

It's funny that you all attempt to poke holes in a 3 line argument and provide arguments that are hilariously easy to find flaws in. The PS3 is selling well because of the recent launch of hit games, and there's no denying that. But what will happen soon afterwards? Hardware sales will dip. Soon the PS3 will be below the Wii, and things will return to normal, even with some of its biggest games having just come out. Very little will have changed except that the PS3 sold a tad more and had a hit game.

I think the psp has yet to reach its full potential in japan.The support is gathering from japanese game developers is really big.Furthermore there is a big list of exclusives that are set to launch in 2009.Also there is a brand new model on the works and maybe a price cut(?)...Of course psp has been in japanese market for 4 years now so that means that a successor is in the works.Even if a successor does launch in 2010 i think that the psp will continue to sell just like psone and ps2.I think that the peak of the psp will be around 17-19mln lifetime sales which is an amazing feat.

As for the wii it is the leader in the console race.So far the leading console ends up with sales of more than 17mln++.The wii has also yet to see a price cut/ colours(though i think that different colors affect handheld systems more),and also has yet to see a big franchise release(monster hunter/dragon quest etc).

HOWEVER,the psp is facing a system(ds) that has started hiting a saturation point(25mln+),so i think that people that in 2006/7 bought ds lite will start moving to psp,so as to a get a different experience(graphics,controls,games).NOW for the wii i think that is alarming that a system that costs as much as 15.000 yen more(almost the price of a ds lite) is outselling it with just a game release.The price gap is huge so as ps3 will becoming cheaper the competition will grow.I am not saying that the ps3 will outsell in total the wii, i am saying that it will hold it off from reaching its peak potencial.

Given the fact that japan market is shrinking this year,especially in the home console market i think that the 4mln differnce is a really big gap,that it will be hard covering,as the wii will have to sell as much as the psp in a weekly base and much more so as to close the gap.

"wait until... MH3, DQ10" - *yawn* I thought only "PS3 fanboys" would use the "wait until" or did I misunderstand sth. ?

No, the gap is just widening right now. And Wii does not cost $400 or the like so one could expect a pricecut to do wonders.

 PSP was released in late 2004 while the Wii was released in late 2006. When PSP will stop selling, Wii will sell millions. You have to take that in account first  before claiming a gap of 4 millions. And no, Crisis Core or Gundam games are not the reason why PSP is selling right now (take a look at the legs of those games...). You comparison of Brain Age 2 vs. Big Brain Academy with MH and DQ was ridiculous. RPG is the best selling genre in Japan (console or handheld) so I don't think it will not sell as much on console than it should on a handheld (in proportion).  

 Where did you see a ''wait until"" ?

Becuase I did poke holes though it. Predictions are easy to break becuase they are just ideas of what will happen. Analaysis is the explination to help back a predition. To step back and make sure we are all on the same page, I am responding to the "bad analaysis" part. (truthfully, it may be wrong of me to do this, but I am bad about jumping in an argueing a side).

Your problem is you are seeing yourself in a better light. Let's look at this recent post. You mentioned the PS3 example. This is wrong namely as all it does is try to discredit one of my points. This doesn't mean I am wrong, but the example is. This attems to attack a wall will a spear. Your arguments is still swiss cheese. I could name other examples though gaming history where a software generated new interest in software. Pokemon, for insterest, generated new excitment in the Gameboy. For the OT, I could mention that the Wii is more likely to have a new spark software as Nintendo is trying things that have not been done in gaming and their goal is to increaste interest in Japan. They have already made new interest with games like Nintendogs and Wii Fit and they have in the past with Pokemon and Mario, so it would be likely that Nintendo could generate it again by either trying new ideas or reinventing their core franchises (they are attempting to do this with Mario and Zelda as they stated in E308).

Now, to step back, let's look at another post.

I don't underestimate them, I understand them just fine. But you seem to forget that Monster Hunter isn't the only reason the PSP performs so well in Japan. It's Monster Hunter, Crisis Core, the various Gundam games, and a variety of colors and models. Monster Hunter is definitely the biggest series for the PSP in Japan and it does a lot to drive hardware sales, but we still have no idea how successful it will be on the Wii. Brain Age 2 on the DS sold over 5 million in Japan, while Big Brain Academy on the Wii only sold 400k. There are a bunch of other examples that prove that success on one platform doesn't necessarily equal success on another. Dragon Quest is a big series, and I expect it to move a lot of hardware. Still, a gap of nearly 4 million (and growing every week) won't just go away because of 2 games. The PSP, even after the launch of MH2G and the PSP-3000 and a bunch of new colors has only moved an additional 3.1 million units over the course of a whole year. Not only that, but the PSP won't be standing still. The Wii will have to not only sell more every week, but have an advantage in numbers that will eventually close the gap between the two consoles.

Now this is analaysis. I won't delve into whether it's good or not (although it looks fine to me) but this is what you should be doing. To step back, what I was trying to give some reason for bad analaysis. My reason was that there is too little to back it up. One should be warry of making claims without evidence. I guess what the one member was trying to say was that for one who focuses on analaysis, he/she should not pass predictions off as such.

Sorry if I am being rude though.

Smashchu2: Thank you for having a respectful argument. If I seemed rude either, I'm sorry. Unfortunately your friend here doesn't share the same idea.

Atma: So if the PSP has been out longer, why is it still selling so much more? You could argue that the Wii will still be selling after the PSP is nearly dead, but that wouldn't matter much. The gap will get bigger and bigger before that, and by that time, the Wii's sales will likely be too low to close the gap. As for Crisis Core and Gundam, they're only small parts of the why the PSP's hardware is selling so well. Heck, the PSP just got a big boost in Japan. Was it from new colors, or the game that you so love to claim is responsible for EVERYTHING? My comparison was not ridiculous. The same thing could be said with Pokemon, Animal Crossing, and hell, another RPG, FINAL FANTASY. The best selling Final Fantasy game on a handheld is Final Fantasy III, which sold 2.27 million on the DS. Compare that to 9.72 million for Final Fantasy 7 and you start to wonder. And while you say that RPGs are the best selling games for both consoles and handhelds, that doesn't seem to be true for the Wii. Its best selling RPG in Japan is Super Paper Mario at about 580k (if you even call that game an RPG, what a disappointment).