MontanaHatchet said:
It's funny that you all attempt to poke holes in a 3 line argument and provide arguments that are hilariously easy to find flaws in. The PS3 is selling well because of the recent launch of hit games, and there's no denying that. But what will happen soon afterwards? Hardware sales will dip. Soon the PS3 will be below the Wii, and things will return to normal, even with some of its biggest games having just come out. Very little will have changed except that the PS3 sold a tad more and had a hit game.
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Becuase I did poke holes though it. Predictions are easy to break becuase they are just ideas of what will happen. Analaysis is the explination to help back a predition. To step back and make sure we are all on the same page, I am responding to the "bad analaysis" part. (truthfully, it may be wrong of me to do this, but I am bad about jumping in an argueing a side).
Your problem is you are seeing yourself in a better light. Let's look at this recent post. You mentioned the PS3 example. This is wrong namely as all it does is try to discredit one of my points. This doesn't mean I am wrong, but the example is. This attems to attack a wall will a spear. Your arguments is still swiss cheese. I could name other examples though gaming history where a software generated new interest in software. Pokemon, for insterest, generated new excitment in the Gameboy. For the OT, I could mention that the Wii is more likely to have a new spark software as Nintendo is trying things that have not been done in gaming and their goal is to increaste interest in Japan. They have already made new interest with games like Nintendogs and Wii Fit and they have in the past with Pokemon and Mario, so it would be likely that Nintendo could generate it again by either trying new ideas or reinventing their core franchises (they are attempting to do this with Mario and Zelda as they stated in E308).
Now, to step back, let's look at another post.
I don't underestimate them, I understand them just fine. But you seem to forget that Monster Hunter isn't the only reason the PSP performs so well in Japan. It's Monster Hunter, Crisis Core, the various Gundam games, and a variety of colors and models. Monster Hunter is definitely the biggest series for the PSP in Japan and it does a lot to drive hardware sales, but we still have no idea how successful it will be on the Wii. Brain Age 2 on the DS sold over 5 million in Japan, while Big Brain Academy on the Wii only sold 400k. There are a bunch of other examples that prove that success on one platform doesn't necessarily equal success on another. Dragon Quest is a big series, and I expect it to move a lot of hardware. Still, a gap of nearly 4 million (and growing every week) won't just go away because of 2 games. The PSP, even after the launch of MH2G and the PSP-3000 and a bunch of new colors has only moved an additional 3.1 million units over the course of a whole year. Not only that, but the PSP won't be standing still. The Wii will have to not only sell more every week, but have an advantage in numbers that will eventually close the gap between the two consoles.
Now this is analaysis. I won't delve into whether it's good or not (although it looks fine to me) but this is what you should be doing. To step back, what I was trying to give some reason for bad analaysis. My reason was that there is too little to back it up. One should be warry of making claims without evidence. I guess what the one member was trying to say was that for one who focuses on analaysis, he/she should not pass predictions off as such.
Sorry if I am being rude though.
