Hi shams, you post has some major logical flaws, so lets begin.
shams said: The games industry is at a crossroads, and Nintendo are at the centre of the change in direction. The old focus of games for the "hardcore/old-school" gamer is being overrun by economics - simpler, cheaper games for the casual/non-gamer are making more money, and having less risk. It also opens the industry up to "simpler" development companies - less focus on art, technology, polish - and more on brand names, marketing (etc...). |
Here is the first thing i disagree and the first thing i say is "Boogie", I really don't think EA does make money with it. I also think that casual games need a good artwork, brand name means a lot, but is not everything. Look at the movie industry. Successful films have brand names, but there are not a lot of those who have done more than a trilogy.
shams said:
I argue this: It should be in the interest of all "old-school" gamers (and related parties, such as review sites) to show Nintendo that not only can "hardcore" titles sell well (and make money) - they can sell better than non-gamer titles (and return a greater profit - after development). I doubt there is a single person here that sincerely wants Nintendo to move completely away from the creation of titles such as Zelda, Galaxy, Brawl & Zelda (and closer to titles such as 'Face Training' & WiiFit). There needs to be a balance - and no doubt Nintendo will continue to support hardcore gamers in some form/ratio. But there is a real chance that the sales of these titles now may determine this development balance in the future. No doubt Ninty will be watching this carefully, and formulating their future plans. Why would Ninty care about Metroid Prime 4 - if Metroid Prime 3 cost 4x to develop what Mario Party 8 did - yet Mario Party 8 sold 4x as many units??? |
So why should a current greater profit on casual titles lead to less hardcore titles? This argument has a flaw, it basically assumes that development power is static, but as the market growth so can development power. Why not make casual and hardcore title and make more profit than you would do, if you concentrate on one of those? Yes you need more man power, but that shouldn't be that big of a problem, should it? It also lower the risks total, because if one of the two market has a crisis you may have the second to relay on.
There is also a second thing you do not consider. Nintendo took a risk expanding to the casual market (with DS, Wii etc.) and if you take a risk and the thing is successful it gives you good profit, in the beginnings. But where is good profit, there will be others that want a piece of the pie, and also targeting the market. Then the profit/invest ration declines, because there are more players on the same market. This will also happen to the casual market. So high profit now does not mean high profit in the future.
shams said:
I personally think this is also very relevant to non-Ninty fans as well. If Ninty drop hardcore game development - almost completely - and end up ruling this generation - what do you think the impact would be on Sony & Microsoft (and other developers)? Regardless of what the people in charge at the moment might want/think - there would be strong pressure from shareholders (who simply want to maximise their profit) - for these companies to follow similar strategies. |
If that would happen, some third Party developer would make one hard core game, and would make a really big profit, because the market still exist and his game would be the only one satisfying it. The game would sell big big big time. The only reason why the profit on the hardcore market is not as high as in the casual market is because the casual market is still new with not so many company targeting it, while the hardcore market has a healthy business competition. The hardcore market doesn't die just because there is a casual market.
shams said:
But I just want to get some of you actually thinking about this seriously. The industry is undergoing the most significant change ever - and 'trivial things' like review scores for a game like MP3 - may end up affecting sales, which may affect a companies future direction... and subsequently the direction of the entire industry. |
True, it might hurt sales, but basically reviews only matter in the beginning and to new IP's. If you have an established fan base that buy that game in the beginning and the game is good, mouth to mouth has more impact on sales than reviews.
shams said:
I can only imagine the reaction of the big-wigs at Ninty if MP3 got straight tens (or close to) & sold 10m units. God forbid, they might have to divert some of their casual dev resources back towards the hardcore gamer. And wouldn't that just be terrible... [sarcasm off] |
Or getting more devs and do both?
Really, I never got the "Nintendo/Wii is killing gaming/hardcore market" grab. It does not make sense. As long as you can make money with doing a good FPS/RPG/Plattformer or whatever there is somebody who will do so!
On the other hand, look at Microsoft. I bet my ass of they would have made money on the 360 already if they hadn't designed the RROD in the hardware. The cost for the RROD are real high. You can assume about $200 for every repair. And that is conservative. Just do your calculation what it cost Microsoft already, thats a huge amount of money. The 1 Billion write off was just for the future cost of the third year of warranty. I don't wanna know how much money MS will make with Halo 3 alone. This should show you, there is still a market and it would be stupid not to satisfy it, as long as you can make money on it.