I expect the gap will increase over this year to about 10 million by then end of Septemeber which is roughly the time I expect Sony to issue a $100 price drop for the system. With a significantly more competative price combined with huge exclusive releases such as God of War III in America, Gran Turismo 5 in Europe, and Final Fantasy XIII in Japan, I expect Sony to have the best Christmas season it has ever had.

However, how Microsoft would respond to Sony's pricecut is extremely important. From my perspective, there's only three realistic options in front of them.
1. Do nothing and hold off for another $100 price drop in 2010.
2. Reduce the price of the Pro model to $200 and phase out the Arcade model.
3. Issue a $50 price drop for every model.
However, no matter which choice Microsoft chooses to go, it doesn't change the fact that to the consumer, Sony's likely $100 price drop will provide a bigger impact.

Depending on how Microsoft responds to Sony's price cut, I could see the gap between the two consoles dropping from anywhere between 4 and 8 million.

Price cut is not coming. You guys really need to let this go. And even if it did, Microsoft would counter with their own. Microsoft will have the price advantage all the way through his gen.

Lineup won't help but to prevent PS3 users to switch to 360.

Only a SEVERE price cut will allow the PS3 to overcome the (quite good) success of the 360.

PS3 keeps its Blu-Ray advantage here and it would be a damn good deal to have a bundle for 300 €..

Without a price cut we're looking at a > 10 million gap by the end of the year. Also in my opinion there comes a time when a price cut won't matter anymore since the vast majority of casuals will have chosen their system and most likely won't buy a second one.

Anyone with eyes can see that a price cut is coming, it's just a question of when. Logically, the best opportunity for Sony to get the most marketshare increase from their cut is right before or during the holiday rush. All major price cuts always come between September and November.

Also, if Sony were to bite the bullet and issue a $100 cut, then I can guarantee you that Microsoft wouldn't do the same. The reason for which is simple, Microsoft would actually like to make money this generation. No matter how many improvements and cost reductions are made to a system, there will always be a point where the system simply can't be reduced any cheaper. That point can be considered the base manufacturing cost. If Microsoft were to reduce the price of the Arcade model by $100 this year, they'd likely be breaking into that cost, which would mean that they'd be selling the system at a permenant loss from now until they decide to take it off the market. Microsoft isn't stupid. They aren't going to set themselves up for losses this entire generation just to stick it to Sony in Q4.

Nobody with half a brain thinks that the PS3 will ever be cheaper than the 360, but in all likelyhood, the 360's biggest price advantages are occurring. Should the PS3 drop it's price by $100 later this year, the 360 will likely never be $200 cheaper than it again. Furthermore, 360 has already broken into the mass-market priced at $200. PS3 still has years of price drops ahead before it even starts selling to its full potential.

I used to have just a 360.  Now it gathers dust, mostly, since I get to play online for free with my PS3.  Pretty wierd huh?  I must be in the minority, since the 360 has a lot more room to grow than the PS3 does... for some reason I can't think of right now.  Soon, the 360 will take over even the Wii market -- where else can it go, when domination is the destination?

Viva la 360!

I don't think so, aiming at the Wii market is the wet dream of MS executives .

I'm pretty sure this has been done at least 1nce already, but I admire your effort with this so I will go ahead and participate.

Unlike my previous predictions I think the by the end of the year the 360 will have a larger lead, given how the first 5 weeks or so have been. I don't think it will be much of a difference prolly between 8.7 and 9.1 million.

To give an exact I'll say 8.81 mill.

the gap will increase for sure since right now every week 360 outsells ps3 by 50-80k so even if ps3 gets pricecut and all those rumoured games it won't matter much especially when x-mas will come cause 360 will sell much better than ps3 thanks to lower price.

in my opinion, there's a different impact when PS3 gets a price cut compare to the 360 getting another price cut

so I don't believe that the 360's next price cut will fully counter the PS3's

PS3 price cut > 360 price cut IMO, IF the price cut of the PS3 is AT LEAST reasonable