Indeed quality wise GT has gone down the shitters, GT4 only got a 89 even though reviewers ripped it a new one due to having no damage while Forza 2 got a whole extra %. :O

Prologue was great for doing what it is suppose to do, give a taste of what the main game will be like but for the past few months PD no longer update the game. Only reason I can think of is Sony telling Yamauchi to stop fucking around and make the full game.

I think that it's important to look at other top PS franchises, and how they've fared on the PS3 before arguing if GT5 can outsell GT4.

A few examples that we currently have:

1. Metal Gear Solid Series:

I. 5.59m
II. 5.58m
III. 4.02m
IV. 3.87m

2. Ratchet & Clank Series:

I. 2.93m
II. 2.42m
III. 2.17m
IV. 1.59m

3. Virtua Fighter Series:

I. 1.07m (Saturn)
II. 1.93m (Saturn)
III. 0.39m (Dreamcast)
IV. 1.71m (PS2)
V. 0.51m

Given the trends, I don't see GT5 getting to GT4 numbers.

Forza 3 will sell probably 2 million copies lifetime sales. Grand Turismo 5 will probably sell 15 million lifetime.

Snake, so you think that GT5 will have the highest attach ratio of any non-Nintendo game in history?

MGS4 is close to 3 while being from a niche genre and smaller install base. GT5 will have no problem reaching GT4 numbers especially since it is the first flagship game this generation as well as many new enhancements. Online being added to a GT game = ding ding ding ding epic legs!

It will be the best selling game on the PS3 of that there is no doubt. Halo has never been bigger than GT but this generation the sales for the game have been great, I cannot see GT5 selling less then that one.

stickball, do you see the PS3 install base never increasing from what it is now to need an insane attach rate?

Gt5. 9 million

Forza 3. 5 million

 MGS says "Hi".

RPG, do you see that GT5 still needs an insane attach rate to garner sales of what's being suggested by some?

Halo had insane attach ratios on the Xbox. So it was no wonder that Halo 3 would totally blow away previous iteration sales, since the 360 has sold a bit better than the Xbox.

On the other end, the PS3 is not the PS2 or PS1 by any means. Turismo fans (of the sales, at least) argue that GT3 managed incredible sales on a very small userbase. But they forget one very important fact: The Playstation 2 sold a lot (and I mean a lot) faster than the PS3 is in the same timeframe.

Reasoning:

Gran Turismo 3 A-Spec (fantastic game BTW. It's what got me into sim racing) launched in July 2001. Within the next year of sales for the PS2, the system sold 18 million units. That's as much as the PS3 sold in it's first 2 years of being on the market.

Because of this, it's going to be hard to see Gran Turismo 5 be fueled by consistent sales that GTIII saw. If there are far fewer adopters of the system, then your not going to see sales as strong as you'd imagine.

We're probably going to see an MGS4-type scenario play out: Incredible sales on the first week. Maybe even 2.5 million units. But it's legs will drop quickly, and wind up doing short of GT4 by decent numbers. I think the most detrimental thing to GT5 right now is poor JP and NA sales of the PS3. PAL numbers could get close to what GT4 did, but JP and NA sales (especially NA) are just out of reach.

I have no idea for Forza 3, but for GT5, I'd say that people look a little "bored" of the franchise, so I'll say "only" 7 millions. I know it's pretty low, but GT5P has stolen sales and the userbase will be lower so ...

Stickball you make great posts many time but then add a comment which is beyong stupid. You just compared MGS4 saes to GT5, do you see what you did wrong already? MGS and GT are not from the same freanchise and more importantly GT games are known for having incredible legs. Really though comparing GT5 to MGS4..........just damn.

Also SOME people have made absolutely retarded estimations but many have not, 10 million for the first flagship game on a userbase of whatever it will be in a year = huge sales.

@tremble there will be gamers to replace the people who find GT boring now but that goes for every game, 7 million seems very low to me.