RPG, do you see that GT5 still needs an insane attach rate to garner sales of what's being suggested by some?
Halo had insane attach ratios on the Xbox. So it was no wonder that Halo 3 would totally blow away previous iteration sales, since the 360 has sold a bit better than the Xbox.
On the other end, the PS3 is not the PS2 or PS1 by any means. Turismo fans (of the sales, at least) argue that GT3 managed incredible sales on a very small userbase. But they forget one very important fact: The Playstation 2 sold a lot (and I mean a lot) faster than the PS3 is in the same timeframe.
Reasoning:
Gran Turismo 3 A-Spec (fantastic game BTW. It's what got me into sim racing) launched in July 2001. Within the next year of sales for the PS2, the system sold 18 million units. That's as much as the PS3 sold in it's first 2 years of being on the market.
Because of this, it's going to be hard to see Gran Turismo 5 be fueled by consistent sales that GTIII saw. If there are far fewer adopters of the system, then your not going to see sales as strong as you'd imagine.
We're probably going to see an MGS4-type scenario play out: Incredible sales on the first week. Maybe even 2.5 million units. But it's legs will drop quickly, and wind up doing short of GT4 by decent numbers. I think the most detrimental thing to GT5 right now is poor JP and NA sales of the PS3. PAL numbers could get close to what GT4 did, but JP and NA sales (especially NA) are just out of reach.
Back from the dead, I'm afraid.
