Sometimes price just comes last and quality first, people want the bigger franchise and are willing to pay the extra money for it. I don't know about where you live mrstickball but it always come down to money with your comments, not everyone is poverty stricken and have to go for the cheaper option.

MS can do Halo-esque marketing for Forza 3 but a simple advert for GT5 saying "only for PS3" will move more systems then Forza could ever dream of. Also this is THE crown jewl for the Sony first party, by the time the game releases (christmas at best) at least here in the EU a price drop will accompany the game as well as advertising. So much can be done with the game such as a price drop to accompany the game, bundles or both!

Sony can even have their retarded monkeys ala the marketing department make the GT5 commercials and even they cannot fuck it up. Popularity wise Forza has not and I would think will not ever reach GT heights. GT5 is one of the games where people would be silly to say it would not do at least a million first week, same cannot be said for Forza.

It's like saying Killzone 2 would have outsold Halo 3 with huge advertising, was never going to happen.

@ RPG

actually I think mrstickball is much more on the money on this one. Granted at the end of the day GT5 WILL outsell Forza 3 but from the tidbits we've gotten it looks like F3 is REALLY stepping up its game. The fact is if MS can manage to get it out the door quicker than GT5 and market the hell out of it F3 will certainly steal some of GT5's system selling power. Now will it completley negate it? No of course not but it will definately make an impact.

Once again notice I said in terms of sales and popularity, not quality. Killzone 2 MP was awesome and I was a Halo 3 whore for about 6 months but still Halo would tear apart Killzone 2 in sales and popularity.

Forza 3 can be amazing but fact of the matter is that GT5 is also going to be great, online and for the first time realistic damage = progression. Me and my friends are also car fanatics and the reason we got a PS3 was due to knowing GT5 would release but many are still waiting for the game to release. They are casual gamers at best and have no desire to play Forza simply because GT5 is coming and prologue is keeping them happy.

Forza series is AAA quality but it is still nothing compared to GT in terms of popularity, the first GT game did 10x what the first Forza did but the second GT did only 2x what Forza 2 did so who knows, things might be changing.

@ RPG

I know and I understand that in the end GT5 is ALWAYS going to be more popular all I'm saying is that if the game is AAA quality and MS bundles / promotes it very well it will impact GT5's selling power and thats just a fact. Like I said it will of course not negate its sales completley and IMO GT5 will move more consoles than Forza 3 but if executed correctly F3 can help take away SOME sales from GT5.

Indeed Forza 3 can take away SOME sales for GT5 but I cannot see the number being one which would worry Sony at all. Gran Turismo will also be bundled like an absolute bitch from the start when it releases here in the EU so from the start it will sell systems as well as to the current userbase.

Also the game at best looks to be coming Christmas 09 which is still a long time away so on top of bundles and adverts we could very well see a price drop by then. First flagship GT game for the PS3, MS can do all they want but I cannot help change by thought that GT5 would tear Forza 3 a new asshole.

Also the title, when did the game become a PAL system seller? GT is a PAL system seller, Forza sells in bundles.

The only thing I will say is Sony have lost alot of peoples faith for gamers. 6 years ago going around town all you saw was PS2 this or PS2 that. Now barely I hardly see the Playstation logo anymore around town. I do think Forza 3 will be outsold by GT5, but I really think it will be far closer than some people think it will be. I think the point Stickball is making is M$ are looking to hamper Sony's sales. And without a doubt through marketing push I believe they could turn GT5 against Sony and steal 1 million gamers to M$ cause.

It has to look awesome, and be advertised the way Halo 3, Gears 2 was. Basically every channel  non stop.

Well Selnor you are going to be shocked when GT5 wipes the floor with Forza 3 while 90% of other peope will not since that is what happens when Forza competed with GT in terms of sales.

People here saying MS will want to release Forza 3 when GT5 releases to steal sales, that would actually be MS relling Turn 10 to commit suicide rather then a smart move. GT is right up there in terms of franchise popularity, a huge marketing push for Forza 3 will not change that.

Also I do have to LOL at many here, people assuming GT5 will not get advertised, the crappy LBP type advertising can occur but as soon as that GT logo shows up at the end of the advert with "Only on PS3" Forza 3 is done.

RPG, again, when you consider the economic aspect of GT5, and the plausible blow Microsoft can deal to Sony, it could be big. I'm not saying it will, but I think that, given system costs, MS could deal a major blow to Sony and the behemoth that is GT5, in terms of swooning users to their console:

Lets go forward in time, to Q4, 2009, when both games could launch. We know for certain that GT5's biggest market will be PAL territories, and will (most likely) launch there first. The projected date would be very late 2009, probably December.

The big question (and detriment) to the PS3 is what the cost will be in PAL when it launches. It could be lower than it is now, but given Sony's desire to achieve some profits, we should reasonably think they aren't going to go bankrupt by dropping the price 100EUR for GT. It'd be great if they did, but I think the scenario is unlikely, given Sony's financial woes.

On the other end of the spectrum, the X360 is leading in Europe (over Sony) and Microsoft has been nothing less than vicious in it's attempt to beat Sony there, and they've done it pretty well since September.

So the X360 has a built-in advantage over Sony: Price. And a doozy at that. Europe, of all 3 markets, have reacted most favorably to Microsoft's price slashing, so if Sony does not cut the price before GT5 comes out, that's a huge win for MS.

Furthermore, Microsoft has an ace in it's hole: The Slim 540 revision, which IS slated for this year. Acording to TSMC, the revision is to take place this May, and we should see Slim consoles rolling out of the factories in August. This may place such a revision on the market in October. Such a revision could see even further price reductions. At a minimum, it makes the 360 more visually attractive, along with a larger media campaign. Sony, as far as I know, does not have a revision slated for this year.

Given all the scenarios, I think this is the optimal path for Microsoft, and the more likely one to be taken:

Forza 3 launches in late October, early November as the premier PAL game. It also launches alongside Slim Forza bundles that give the X360 a new lease on life.

Sony reacts by a very tepid price cut and GT5 bundling, which should seem obvious.

Now, the big question is if racing buffs are going to spend $200 extra on a game that may not be better than FM3, as the Forza series may not have the popularity, but certainly can hold it's own as a comparable sim racer.

I think a great example of possible attrition, given right market conditions, is the comparison of the PES and FIFA series. The PES series has long been the premier series of football enthusiasts in PAL markets: It's done spectacularly for years now. Fifa has always had fledgling sales. 08's version had 4.62 million sales in PAL markets - Good, but not great, given that PES 08 sold about 800,000 more copies before you throw in PSP sales, which were solid.

But in 09, FIFA was argued to be the better game, and saw 4.58m (to date) vs. 3.56m for PES 09.

What I'm getting at is that, given the right conditions - a comparable game on a cheaper system, fans will go for the better deal. In the FIFA-PES analogy, the 360 version of FIFA had the biggest increases of any platform, or Fifa/PES title. So fans are willing to adopt to a non-traditional system (such as a 360, which isn't the go-to soccer system) if the game is good, and the price is right.

With racers, I feel that conditions are definately less than optimal for Sony due to pricing and release date, and Forza may be able to pull a FIFA, and steal thunder from the bigger series if Microsoft is willing to do what's needed to pull it off.

But again, that does NOT mean I think that FM3 will outsell GT5 in Europe. GT is big, but I think it's going to do it's best business due to the current install base.

Both games are going to be system sellers, GT5 and FM3. However, if one system has a major price and library advantage, then I think that it can keep forward momentum, and get the bigger share of sales. And that system, I believe, will be the 360.

Of course there is a chance of Forza 3 outselling GT5 but I really doubt Forza 3 can impact GT5 sales by a huge deal if it released with a slimline console, more price drops or whatever.

FIFA did very well last year compared to this year and this year Fifa had several 3 minute adverts on Sky Sports, released earlier and was the better game. FIFA was not doing badly at all previously against the declining quality of PES but forza has not even come close to a single GT game.

Also you are making some serious assumptions, one big one being that after 2 years Sony will not drop the price of the console and secondly the slimline 360 will drop the price by an amount which will seem significant.

There was a bundle for LBP and one for Killzone 2 coming, one for GT5 will also come so Sony will find ways to make sure GT does very well but this is just one of those games which will make people purchase a PS3. Go have a look at the numbers buddy, the franchise is pretty darn strong. ;)

Stickball, what is all this sure talk about a slim 360? That is great news.