RPG, again, when you consider the economic aspect of GT5, and the plausible blow Microsoft can deal to Sony, it could be big. I'm not saying it will, but I think that, given system costs, MS could deal a major blow to Sony and the behemoth that is GT5, in terms of swooning users to their console:
Lets go forward in time, to Q4, 2009, when both games could launch. We know for certain that GT5's biggest market will be PAL territories, and will (most likely) launch there first. The projected date would be very late 2009, probably December.
The big question (and detriment) to the PS3 is what the cost will be in PAL when it launches. It could be lower than it is now, but given Sony's desire to achieve some profits, we should reasonably think they aren't going to go bankrupt by dropping the price 100EUR for GT. It'd be great if they did, but I think the scenario is unlikely, given Sony's financial woes.
On the other end of the spectrum, the X360 is leading in Europe (over Sony) and Microsoft has been nothing less than vicious in it's attempt to beat Sony there, and they've done it pretty well since September.
So the X360 has a built-in advantage over Sony: Price. And a doozy at that. Europe, of all 3 markets, have reacted most favorably to Microsoft's price slashing, so if Sony does not cut the price before GT5 comes out, that's a huge win for MS.
Furthermore, Microsoft has an ace in it's hole: The Slim 540 revision, which IS slated for this year. Acording to TSMC, the revision is to take place this May, and we should see Slim consoles rolling out of the factories in August. This may place such a revision on the market in October. Such a revision could see even further price reductions. At a minimum, it makes the 360 more visually attractive, along with a larger media campaign. Sony, as far as I know, does not have a revision slated for this year.
Given all the scenarios, I think this is the optimal path for Microsoft, and the more likely one to be taken:
Forza 3 launches in late October, early November as the premier PAL game. It also launches alongside Slim Forza bundles that give the X360 a new lease on life.
Sony reacts by a very tepid price cut and GT5 bundling, which should seem obvious.
Now, the big question is if racing buffs are going to spend $200 extra on a game that may not be better than FM3, as the Forza series may not have the popularity, but certainly can hold it's own as a comparable sim racer.
I think a great example of possible attrition, given right market conditions, is the comparison of the PES and FIFA series. The PES series has long been the premier series of football enthusiasts in PAL markets: It's done spectacularly for years now. Fifa has always had fledgling sales. 08's version had 4.62 million sales in PAL markets - Good, but not great, given that PES 08 sold about 800,000 more copies before you throw in PSP sales, which were solid.
But in 09, FIFA was argued to be the better game, and saw 4.58m (to date) vs. 3.56m for PES 09.
What I'm getting at is that, given the right conditions - a comparable game on a cheaper system, fans will go for the better deal. In the FIFA-PES analogy, the 360 version of FIFA had the biggest increases of any platform, or Fifa/PES title. So fans are willing to adopt to a non-traditional system (such as a 360, which isn't the go-to soccer system) if the game is good, and the price is right.
With racers, I feel that conditions are definately less than optimal for Sony due to pricing and release date, and Forza may be able to pull a FIFA, and steal thunder from the bigger series if Microsoft is willing to do what's needed to pull it off.
But again, that does NOT mean I think that FM3 will outsell GT5 in Europe. GT is big, but I think it's going to do it's best business due to the current install base.
Both games are going to be system sellers, GT5 and FM3. However, if one system has a major price and library advantage, then I think that it can keep forward momentum, and get the bigger share of sales. And that system, I believe, will be the 360.
Back from the dead, I'm afraid.
