I assume you mean that it isn't - and it is. It's just that Nintendo is behind most of the games that shatter records.

I hope the game does as well as Nintendo has the potential to make it do. They're a very different company than they were twenty years ago, with a much better understanding of the market.

Do not forget - people called Brain Training "unmarketable" to the West.

Well, the series is kind of in a decline if you compare DQ7 -> DQ8. But that's a long time ago.

But it's also been a while since another non Pokemon RPG has sold well in Japan. The only two that broke a million were DQ 5 and 6. (as far games released in 2008)

And the DS isn't much of a better seller than the PS2. I do not think breaking 5 million will be easy by any means.

I think you mean Dragon Quest IV and V.

But also, the DS is quite a different story than the PS2.  This is a totally different generation than the last, despite what the people who fight over the consoles would like you to believe.  And the DS is breaking sales records for hardware, surpassing the sales rates of even the GB line and yes, the PS2.  DS has already surpassed the total sales of Japanese PS2s.  So comparing the projected sales for DQVIII and IX is going to have to change now because of that.  But beyond that, the Japanese market is just DS crazy.  It comes with the handheld affinity their market has always had plus the larger amount of 'Japanese specific' software focusing on the DS.  And its not just Nintendo cleaning up from this craze.  The three best selling third party titles in Japan actually comes from Square Enix.  Each being the DS Dragon Quest titles.

Add to this the fact that nearly every poll in every magazine has placed DQIX as the most anticipated game since its announcement (well over 3 years ago).....you can start to see why this is going to more than likely break records.

Maybe it won't hit 5 million.  Maybe the series has a cap in its fanbase.  But the DS + more hardware + Dragon Quest sure sounds like record sales to me.

Yes the DS is selling more hardware than the PS2 (as the tradition has been), but home consoles always sell more software. 

And DQ9 has been a fight with Final Fantasy 13 for the top spot in their 'Most Wanted List' for months now. DQ 9 has been 1 and 2 in that list.

And I'm saying it won't hit 5 million, but it just won't be as easy as you think. You have to factor in the terrible condition of the Japanese gaming market that the PS2 didn't have to go through during its prime.

Yeah, there's the state of the economy to think about.  However, as it has been stated before, the three things that seem to strive in this faltering economy is food, toilet paper and video games.