How have the big 3 faired so far this year?  Let's take a look.

The two sales periods are:
Jan 5th, 2008 - Feb 02, 2008
Jan 03, 2009 - Jan 31, 2009

X360:
2008 - 722,165
2009 - 1,211,003

Difference: +488,838 (+67%)

PS3:
2008 - 1,069,182
2009 - 903,485

Difference: -165,697 (-15%)

Wii:
2008 - 1,531,197
2009 - 2,331,929

Difference: +800,732 (+52%)

Things couldn't be better for Nintendo and Microsoft.  All 5 weeks of this period showed an average weekly gain of 97k for MS and 160k for Nintendo.  Sony seems to be moving in the wrong direction with a weekly drop of just 33k but it's not a huge reduction either and can be turned around with just a few weeks of good sales later this month.

Once price cut kicks in, things will change for sony. Glad to see xbox kicking ass in its 4th year of existance... Wii is selling well and it may finally have some decent "core" games which is great for gamers...and not so much for soccer moms looking for the next My Petz Horsie game.

Win all around.

I fail to see where is the PS3 win.

It's in that price cut. Y'know... the one Sony can't afford to make in the forseeable future.

What is good for the PS3 is that it's still tracking ahead of the 360 in aligned launches. But what's bad is that it doesn't sell quite as much software as the green machine.

Actually it fell behind the Xbox 360 last holiday season compared to the one before if you want to be pedantic about aligning launches.

I have a theory that this year really is the Xbox 360s 'true' third year if you base it on when the generation really started. Last time it started when the PS2 launched and this time IMO it started once all three were out of the gate, especially for the HD consoles due to obscene development costs. As both the Xbox 360 and PS3 are linked, the former won't really decline unless total demand for the latter drops as well seeing as they are so closely linked.

I wouldn't be surprised if the ps3 and 360 peak at the same time.

This will be 360's Peak Year. 1.2m in one of the slowest months.

expect 14m+ for 360 this year. next year will be fairly flat 10 - 12m

then decrease fairly rapidly

2009 - 14m

2010 - 11m

2011 - 8m

2012 - 6m

2013 Onwards - 12m+

Total - 78m +

Thats fairly optimistic especially saying it will sell around 4m a year after next gen starts for 3 years.

80m Would be max. 60m absolute Min should get 70m

thats almost 3X first Xbox.

Not a fair comparison for Xbox 360 because last year, it was mostly in shortage for the first two months. So the increase isn't a lot more.

What the hell?

That's not fairly optimistic that's hugely so.

I am expecting more in line with:

2009 - 12.5m
2010 - 9m
2011 - 6m
2012 - 2m
2013 onwards - 1m

The X360 will not exceed 60 million.

That's kind of crazy... only 12.5 millino this year?  It'll easily do 14 if not more though I pegged it at 13.5 in my prediction I've a feeling that it's going to beat last years numbers by a decent margin and Sony's fincial troubles will help it out even more.  It's likely that 2010 will see another price drop if not the introduction of solid state hdd and a new sku that is smaller with the cpu and gpu on the same chip.  The price will likely hit 180 if not 160 and then in '11 it'll probalby go down to 120(for the Arcade model of course).  This will keep demand from dropping off like you show it.