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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - How long Until the Wii reach 50% Market share?

TruckOSaurus on 04 February 2009

You clearly haven't done your research! The Wii will never cross 50%, it's all explained here : http://vgchartz.com/forum/post.php?id=1749304



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JHawkNH on 09 February 2009

Data for 1/23/09

After this thread I though a few facts and data sets were needed.

http://vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=59344

So here goes...  (I will update this each week just like the WiiFit Outsells thread)

Raw Data:

  Total Sales
Item Current 1 Week ago 4 Week ago 12 week ago
Wii 45,563,277 45,108,513 43,746,407 35,171,327
360 27,925,686 27,731,652 26,934,473 22,287,639
PS3 19,897,112 19,758,099 19,146,074 16,464,369

  Per Week Avg
Item 1 Week Avg 4 Week Avg 12 Week Avg
Wii 454,764 454,218 865,996
360 194,034 247,803 469,837
PS3 139,013 187,760 286,062

Conculsions:

  Number of weeks to 50% based on:
Item 1 Week Avg 4 Week Avg 12 Week Avg
Wii 18.6 121.1 20.5

Dates used:

Current 1 Week 4 Week 12 week
1/23/2009 1/16/2009 12/26/2008 10/31/2008

We should see the "4 Week Avg" go down to ~ the 1 and 12 week Avg in the next two weeks.



JHawkNH on 09 February 2009

Data for 1/30/09

Raw Data:

  Total Sales
Item Current 1 Week ago 4 Week ago 12 week ago
Wii 46,078,336 45,562,724 44,394,827 35,733,005
360 28,145,476 27,925,686 27,281,163 22,563,834
PS3 20,070,738 19,921,303 19,434,625 16,656,023

  Per Week Avg
Item 1 Week Avg 4 Week Avg 12 Week Avg
Wii 515,612 420,877 862,111
360 219,790 216,078 465,137
PS3 149,435 159,028 284,560

Conculsions:

  Number of weeks to 50% based on:
Item 1 Week Avg 4 Week Avg 12 Week Avg
Wii 14.6 46.7 19.0

Dates used:

Current 1 Week 4 Week 12 week
1/30/2009 1/23/2009 1/2/2009 11/7/2008

We should see the "4 Week Avg" go down to ~ the 1 and 12 week Avg in the next 2 weeks.



rubido on 09 February 2009

Expected number of weeks for the 12 week average went down by one week. Precisely.



Snake612 on 09 February 2009

I think it will have 50% of the Market share in about 2 months.



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rubido on 09 February 2009
Snake612 said:
I think it will have 50% of the Market share in about 2 months.

 

Isn't that a bit bold? I know many good games are coming for the Wii in February, but PS3 is also getting Killzone 2. Also, no expected number of weeks is as low as 8 weeks. The wii would have to sell some insane amounts of consoles for this to happen. Or the other would have to sell close to nothing combined.

I would guess something closer to June or July right now.



metalmonstar on 09 February 2009

It should be able to do it in 12 - 16 weeks.



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puffy on 09 February 2009

It'll hit 50% the same week as Wii Sports Resort debuts (hopefully Nintendo don't spring it on us too early :P)



 

Cueil on 09 February 2009

I hope it never gets there... I was really hoping for a much more balance race this gen... right now it's not as bad as it was last gen, but in a few ways it could be worse.



 
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pakidan101 on 09 February 2009

I really like your threads JHawkNH...especially the tables (the power of knowledge overrules all!!).

Anyways, my prediction is that the Wii, depending on supply, should get 50% Markets share by May-June...just in time for Wii Sports Resort.

It would be around April-May, but I believe there will be a small PS3 surge when KZ2 comes out, so there will be delay.

Whether a control of the market will bring more games to the Wii or not is a entirely different subject, but it is an amazing feat to come from third place last gen to be number one this gen.



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