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Soma said:
wow, that guy was a genious, he anticipated perfectly the trends of videogames and the risks it has right now.

I don't think he anticipated anything. He only analyzed the situation at that time.

Our situation in current "modern times" are similar because from mid eighties the industry progression was incremental ( moar graphic, moar sound, moar engaging and complex gameplay ). 

 



 “In the entertainment business, there are only heaven and hell, and nothing in between and as soon as our customers bore of our products, we will crash.”  Hiroshi Yamauchi

TAG:  Like a Yamauchi pimp slap delivered by Il Maelstrom; serving it up with style.

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theRepublic said:
jammy2211 said:
theRepublic said:
jammy2211 said:
theRepublic said:
NJ5 said:

Thanks celine. This part is almost scary to read considering the time it was written at:

The answer has to do with a concept called "market share". The basic strategy is to "buy market share". That is, you spend a lot of money to make a product that will sell very well. You still lose money on the product, but the huge sales you make put you in an excellent position to make money with a followup product.



The concept is sound and has been proven to work in many markets with different products. Unfortunately, there's an unintended side effect of such products in our industry: they raise the expectations of the consumers to levels that simply cannot be sustained. Once a customer has been dazzled by a money-losing yet fabulous product, he'll turn up his nose at a normal product delivered on a normal budget. And this is precisely what is happening to our customers. Nowadays, if you don't spend a half-million-plus on your product, it won't sell.

 

This is prety much what I have been saying about projects on the 360 and PS3.

 It's a trend that has been happening for 15 years+ and is elusive in gaming on all platforms.

As I said above Wii developement budgets (or at least marketing) is only going to get bigger and bigger, causing the smaller budget stuff to be ignored and thus the trend illustrated will continue. Just in a less tradional sense of the money being focused not on making a (subjectively?) better game, but on making the most marketable project with the widest mainstream appeal.

 

This is much less of a problem on the Wii.  There are plenty of smaller budget, innovative projects on the Wii.  I don't see many of those on the 360 or PS3.

As it currently stands, the technology in the 360 and PS3 has outpaced the business model of the industry.  The people who own these systems demand amazing, realistic graphics for every game.  That doesn't make sense.  Not every game can be a multi-million dollar production.  There needs to be middle and lower end games for every console.

 You're totally missing the whole point of everything the OP's article cites and anything I said. It's 2am here and I have to get up early so I'm going to bed but I'll try leave you with the simplest way of explaining what the article is saying.

 In short, companies will always strive to have more and more successful projects, it's an evident trend in gaming for all it's exsistance. Traditionally this involved better graphics, more impressive tech etc. Wii has changed the focus somewhat, instead to have a huge behemoth seller the money needs to be pumped into market research and actual marketing. IT's still huge amounts of money and as the industry always does, it's inevitable that soon Wii projects will be huge $20 million+ total budget 'gambles' as the likes of EA and Activision use the same strategies that got them to the global gaming companies they've always used.

 The money Nintendo spend marketing their games is probably far above an 'average' PS360 games total budget for marketing and dev costs etc, I've got no real source on figures aside from Wii Fit's $40 million advertising in just the USA though. Nintendo can afford it though, cause every advert sells them consoles, and they don't have to pay royalties leading to bigger profits etc.

The only reason it's not so evident yet is the market is new territory and EA and Activision and any of the big players don't know how to make these investments successful. They'll figure it out though, and then budgets will increase, lesser known software will be ignored and gaming costs go up just as they always do.

 To be honest I'd imagine that post was a bit of a mish-mash as I was trying to make brief something which needs a long explanation (Which the OP provided but seemed to go over your head somewhat 0_o). I'll get back to this tommorow if it's not too long for me to give up reading, definitely a great article though.

So you think that Nintendo is spending more and making more profit than any other developer?

No.

Developers are struggling because costs have risen so high.  Nintendo avoided the tech race this gen, and it paid off for them in a big way.

Nintendo are spending more money then any other developer on the Wii, and making more money then any other developer on the Wii. I'd be tempted to extend that to in the industry as a whole, but I don't have enough figures or numbers to do so.

 Aside from that you're totally missing the point of what i'm saying, the article is saying and what most people are discussing.

 



jammy2211 said:
Pristine20 said:
I'm gald no one has claimed that nintendo came to save the day on this thread because if you ask me, they did what was best for themselves not because they had any particularly altruistic intentions for the gaming industry as a whole.

 The article is more explaining a trend of what has happend in the industry for many years. What it's saying is collective to the whole industry.

Exactly.

 The Wii has helped keep costs low but ultimately it'll succumb to this trend, marketing budgets will go up, games will get more ambitious etc. In some ways I think Nintendo are encouraging this, Wii Fit's marketing budget is beleived to be ~ $40 million in the USA alone (Can dig up a source if you want), I'm sure they're not marketing any other games that high but you can bet Wii Sports and Wii Music and Mario Galaxy etc were huge investments.

What you described ( or the OP artcile ) is a natural process because the growth of a company is tied to his core consumers and stokeholders thus if you want to keep the necessary growth for the ever increasing dimension of your company you must to accomodate who want generally increaseded updates ( core consumers ) and avoid risk and the unknown because stokeholders want certain safe performance. 

An incremental way of thinking work ... for a while but ultimately bring to demise because you generally cut out new potential customers and bore people because you don't risk.

What Nintendo is doing is a paradigm shift:

Who is a gamer ? Potentially everyone.

Is progress exclusively defined by photorealism ( an incremental aspect fought over for twenty years ) ? No.

Taking some old Iwata's words:

"On the other hand, what's more prominent in my thinking these days is how our industry is getting smaller. We are smaller in the amount of risk we're willing to accept. We are also smaller in how we define videogames. The list of genres seems fixed - shooters, sports, platformers, puzzles, and so on. When is the last time we invented a new genre? But as importantly, even within these genres, we have reduced the environments we use. The racing tracks, the sound tracks, the bosses, the heroes, are starting to look more and more alike. Consider Tiger Woods Gold and Mario Golf - each a successful franchise, but using two different looks for this game genre. Such variety is becoming harder and harder to find.

We are even getting smaller in how we define progress. Making games look more photorealistic is not the only means of improving the game experience. I know, on this point I risk being misunderstood, so remember, I am a man who once programmed a baseball game with no baseball players. If anyone appreciates graphics, it's me! But my point is that this is just one path to improved game. We need to find others. Improvement has more than one definition.

Finally, I am most concerned with what we think of as a gamer. As we spend more time and money chasing exactly the same players, who are we leaving behind? Are we creating games just for each other? Do you have friends and family members who do not play videogames? Well, why don't they? And, I would ask this: how often have you challenged yourself to create a game that you might not play? I think these questions for an important challenge for all of us."

 

 I'd say it's only a matter of time until EA or Activision or someone start trying to out-do Nintendo, push the budgets higher, market it even further etc, and then the trend continues and costs go higher, risks are more dangerous and most of what was detailed happens.

 This isn't a problem. If there are consumers that want high quality, high budget games like Super Mario Galaxy they will buy them. But on Wii there are people that want to buy small projects too, projects that don't have state of art presentation and that can be profitable on relatively average sales. This is due to how Nintendo build the philosophy of  their console. PS3 and Xbox 360 were always presented like avantgard of the cinematic trend, the hollywood style of thinking is high risks/high gains and cut out the small/mid size publishers, if not for digital distribution systems.

I want to note you that if Nintendo think that their profits are at risk and the indutry is ready for a revolution they will probably disrupt it again.

 

I don't think any console will change this unless we saw a revolution to the entire video games model (Digital Distribution could be that revolution) but for now the trend will continue on and on.

Digital distribution is really important because there are worthy products that could be very huge that simply can't find a way to be release and competitive on retailer shelves. Iwata made an example how Tetris, one of the most important piece of gaming software, would probably never be released in the current modern times.

However not all gaming products can be moved to DD system because there are certain advantages on using retailers like selling point. Also the consolidation process described in this thread probably will appear even on digital platforms.

 

bolded part.

 



 “In the entertainment business, there are only heaven and hell, and nothing in between and as soon as our customers bore of our products, we will crash.”  Hiroshi Yamauchi

TAG:  Like a Yamauchi pimp slap delivered by Il Maelstrom; serving it up with style.

One point in the article you're all forgetting

"Budgets are increasing but the market isn't"

Nintendo always said the Wii was supposed to EXPAND the market. Not only is Nintendo trying to limit budgets but it's main aim is to expand the amount of people buying thus off setting the increasing spending.

Nintendo didn't try saving the industry by limiting spending but instead getting more people into gaming as they saw the industry declining



 

Wow, those were REALLY interesting reads, especially the second one. As others have said, almost scarily prescient for the current market.

I'm not sure how many of you realize this, but the market that those articles were talking about (the early 1990s computer gaming market) absolutely did crash, and was completely transformed. The computer gaming market today looks absolutely nothing like it did back then. In the late 80s/early 90s, the big genres were flight simulators (Wing Commander), point and click adventure games (King's Quest), complex turn-based strategy games (Civilization), and ridiculously complicated RPGs or wargaming simulations (the early Ultima games). The games were played by a small group of geeky males, who were really the only ones who had personal computers back in the early 1980s when the market was first created. Needless to say, none of these genres really exist now...

So what happened? The games got too complicated and too niche to justify the (rapidly growing) budgets allocated to them. The market was able to stay alive because 1) many more people were buying PCs in the 1990s, and 2) the games changed in nature to appeal to a larger audience. Although there wasn't much of an Internet in those days, the old-school computer gaming geeks were vehemently opposed to these changes; this would be your "hardcore vs. casuals" debate, although no one used those terms back then. So we ended up with games like Starcraft and Diablo - fast paced and easy for anyone to pick up - instead of the ungodly complex flight simulators and adventure games of a decade earlier. The first-person shooter (Doom, Quake, etc.) also rose to prominence in the 90s too, which brought a new ("casual") group of fans to PC gaming, who were much more interested in action and much less interested in intellectual pursuits.

Now the thing is, the old computer gaming industry managed to offset its spiraling costs by consolidating into ever larger publishing houses and taking advantage of rising PC sales as the technology improved. Most people in developed countries now own personal computers, so that area for growth has slowed down enormously, and we're getting close to the end of the road for what consolidation of developers and publishers can achieve too. So what did PC developers do? Stick all their games on consoles as well! Outside of MMOs, how many major PC exclusive games are there? (Someone will take objection to that, but the truth is, very few.) And even this isn't working. Look at the current market: Take-Two (already a large publisher) needed to be directly subsized by Microsoft to complete work on Grand Theft Auto. The business model whereby Microsoft and Sony take huge losses to subsidize third-party development is extremely unstable, and can't last forever. (Sony probably can't afford much moneyhatting for a while, so expect to see few third-party exclusives come their way in the immediate future.)

In short, I agree with NJ5 that we're reaching a breaking point. You can only keep consolidating into larger and larger publishing firms for so long. The next step would be getting national governments to subsidize development costs, and that simply will not happen.



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End of 2008 totals: Wii 42m, 360 24m, PS3 18.5m (made Jan. 4, 2008)

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Wow, Sullla, that post was pretty illuminating in and of itself.



@Sullla: Great post, which may also open some people's eyes to the reality of the hardcore vs casuals debate besides the business questions.



My Mario Kart Wii friend code: 2707-1866-0957

Sullla said:

Wow, those were REALLY interesting reads, especially the second one. As others have said, almost scarily prescient for the current market.

I'm not sure how many of you realize this, but the market that those articles were talking about (the early 1990s computer gaming market) absolutely did crash, and was completely transformed. The computer gaming market today looks absolutely nothing like it did back then. In the late 80s/early 90s, the big genres were flight simulators (Wing Commander), point and click adventure games (King's Quest), complex turn-based strategy games (Civilization), and ridiculously complicated RPGs or wargaming simulations (the early Ultima games). The games were played by a small group of geeky males, who were really the only ones who had personal computers back in the early 1980s when the market was first created. Needless to say, none of these genres really exist now...

So what happened? The games got too complicated and too niche to justify the (rapidly growing) budgets allocated to them. The market was able to stay alive because 1) many more people were buying PCs in the 1990s, and 2) the games changed in nature to appeal to a larger audience. Although there wasn't much of an Internet in those days, the old-school computer gaming geeks were vehemently opposed to these changes; this would be your "hardcore vs. casuals" debate, although no one used those terms back then. So we ended up with games like Starcraft and Diablo - fast paced and easy for anyone to pick up - instead of the ungodly complex flight simulators and adventure games of a decade earlier. The first-person shooter (Doom, Quake, etc.) also rose to prominence in the 90s too, which brought a new ("casual") group of fans to PC gaming, who were much more interested in action and much less interested in intellectual pursuits.

Now the thing is, the old computer gaming industry managed to offset its spiraling costs by consolidating into ever larger publishing houses and taking advantage of rising PC sales as the technology improved. Most people in developed countries now own personal computers, so that area for growth has slowed down enormously, and we're getting close to the end of the road for what consolidation of developers and publishers can achieve too. So what did PC developers do? Stick all their games on consoles as well! Outside of MMOs, how many major PC exclusive games are there? (Someone will take obj ection to that, but the truth is, very few.) And even this isn't working. Look at the current market: Take-Two (already a large publisher) needed to be directly subsized by Microsoft to complete work on Grand Theft Auto. The business model whereby Microsoft and Sony take huge losses to subsidize third-party development is extremely unstable, and can't last forever. (Sony probably can't afford much moneyhatting for a while, so expect to see few third-party exclusives come their way in the immediate future.)

In short, I agree with NJ5 that we're reaching a breaking point. You can only keep consolidating into larger and larger publishing firms for so long. The next step would be getting national governments to subsidize development costs, and that simply will not happen.

 

 

Excellent post Sullla

I'd just like to use this piece as evidence as to why there won't be a 'unified platform' or a single hardware platform with games going to it. 

I think I'll let people make their own minds up as to why that post shows that point very clearly



 

Sullla said:

Wow, those were REALLY interesting reads, especially the second one. As others have said, almost scarily prescient for the current market.

*Lots of awesome*

In short, I agree with NJ5 that we're reaching a breaking point. You can only keep consolidating into larger and larger publishing firms for so long. The next step would be getting national governments to subsidize development costs, and that simply will not happen.

 

Actually, that already is happening. I've seen articles featuring UK developers complaining about how Canadian developers are being subsidized.

Game development subsidies make about as much sense as movie subsidies, from the point of view of the government subsidizing. It provides high-quality jobs with good pay, along with economic and cultural side benefits. Just the other night I was wondering why there were so many Canadian bands in Shaun White Snowboarding, then I remembered that it was made in Montreal.

As the gaming industry continues to grow and continues to require more labour and investment, you can expect governments to compete for those rich jobs just like they compete for movie jobs, auto jobs, and others.



"The worst part about these reviews is they are [subjective]--and their scores often depend on how drunk you got the media at a Street Fighter event."  — Mona Hamilton, Capcom Senior VP of Marketing
*Image indefinitely borrowed from BrainBoxLtd without his consent.

celine said:

The Wii has helped keep costs low but ultimately it'll succumb to this trend, marketing budgets will go up, games will get more ambitious etc. In some ways I think Nintendo are encouraging this, Wii Fit's marketing budget is beleived to be ~ $40 million in the USA alone (Can dig up a source if you want), I'm sure they're not marketing any other games that high but you can bet Wii Sports and Wii Music and Mario Galaxy etc were huge investments.

What you described ( or the OP artcile ) is a natural process because the growth of a company is tied to his core consumers and stokeholders thus if you want to keep the necessary growth for the ever increasing dimension of your company you must to accomodate who want generally increaseded updates ( core consumers ) and avoid risk and the unknown because stokeholders want certain safe performance. 

An incremental way of thinking work ... for a while but ultimately bring to demise because you generally cut out new potential customers and bore people because you don't risk.

What Nintendo is doing is a paradigm shift:

Who is a gamer ? Potentially everyone.

Is progress exclusively defined by photorealism ( an incremental aspect fought over for twenty years ) ? No.

Taking some old Iwata's words:

"On the other hand, what's more prominent in my thinking these days is how our industry is getting smaller. We are smaller in the amount of risk we're willing to accept. We are also smaller in how we define videogames. The list of genres seems fixed - shooters, sports, platformers, puzzles, and so on. When is the last time we invented a new genre? But as importantly, even within these genres, we have reduced the environments we use. The racing tracks, the sound tracks, the bosses, the heroes, are starting to look more and more alike. Consider Tiger Woods Gold and Mario Golf - each a successful franchise, but using two different looks for this game genre. Such variety is becoming harder and harder to find.

We are even getting smaller in how we define progress. Making games look more photorealistic is not the only means of improving the game experience. I know, on this point I risk being misunderstood, so remember, I am a man who once programmed a baseball game with no baseball players. If anyone appreciates graphics, it's me! But my point is that this is just one path to improved game. We need to find others. Improvement has more than one definition.

Finally, I am most concerned with what we think of as a gamer. As we spend more time and money chasing exactly the same players, who are we leaving behind? Are we creating games just for each other? Do you have friends and family members who do not play videogames? Well, why don't they? And, I would ask this: how often have you challenged yourself to create a game that you might not play? I think these questions for an important challenge for all of us."

I agree with most of that, just that Nintendo are lending to the encouragement of bigger budgeted games and going to make Wii projects just as high risk and potentially damaging as any PS360. As they expand the size of the industry maybe the companies will be able to cope, I'm sure they will when you look at how PS360 developement has gone. More just stating some of the irony of the situation.

 I'd say it's only a matter of time until EA or Activision or someone start trying to out-do Nintendo, push the budgets higher, market it even further etc, and then the trend continues and costs go higher, risks are more dangerous and most of what was detailed happens.

 This isn't a problem. If there are consumers that want high quality, high budget games like Super Mario Galaxy they will buy them. But on Wii there are people that want to buy small projects too, projects that don't have state of art presentation and that can be profitable on relatively average sales. This is due to how Nintendo build the philosophy of  their console. PS3 and Xbox 360 were always presented like avantgard of the cinematic trend, the hollywood style of thinking is high risks/high gains and cut out the small/mid size publishers, if not for digital distribution systems.

I want to note you that if Nintendo think that their profits are at risk and the indutry is ready for a revolution they will probably disrupt it again.

 It is a problem for smaller studio's, for a variety of reasons. Retailers will ignore any game which isn't from a big publisher as less and less shelf space is avaliable. The audience for these 'small projects' will flock towards the ones with larger marketing budgets (As I think we're beginning to see with titles such as de Blob and Shaun White's), which once again favours the big boys. For me the smaller studio's will be cut out sooner or later, as retail don't have time for games with no sales guarentee and the big boys crack how to 'win' the new Wii market.

 Video games as they currently are will always cut out the smaller studio eventually, in one way or another. Albeit we appear to be seeing the end of the indie developer age, and all the talented studios will be snapped up by major publishers anyway.

I don't think any console will change this unless we saw a revolution to the entire video games model (Digital Distribution could be that revolution) but for now the trend will continue on and on.

Digital distribution is really important because there are worthy products that could be very huge that simply can't find a way to be release and competitive on retailer shelves. Iwata made an example how Tetris, one of the most important piece of gaming software, would probably never be released in the current modern times.

However not all gaming products can be moved to DD system because there are certain advantages on using retailers like selling point. Also the consolidation process described in this thread probably will appear even on digital platforms.

 What advantages are there in using retailers? DD would just mean you make more profit per unit sold, gets rid of the pre-owned market and eliminates the issue of shelf space. Also cuts production costs etc.

 Digital Distribution would still lead to having big, behemoths at the top but it'd better support developement at the 'bottom' too. Smaller teams could price their projects much more accordingly and not need as big marketing. It's still a model i'm working on in my head anyway.

bolded part.

 I did the parts in red.

 As a quick sidenote, what the Wii is doing is much healthier as although costs will rise the market is growing with them. It is much more sustainable, I don't disagree with any of that. Just as we've always seen, and is the mentality of the industry, games will still be more and more about bigger budgets (albeit more on the marketing side) and the smaller teams will be cut out.

 Good luck with the quoting lol.