The Wii has helped keep costs low but ultimately it'll succumb to this trend, marketing budgets will go up, games will get more ambitious etc. In some ways I think Nintendo are encouraging this, Wii Fit's marketing budget is beleived to be ~ $40 million in the USA alone (Can dig up a source if you want), I'm sure they're not marketing any other games that high but you can bet Wii Sports and Wii Music and Mario Galaxy etc were huge investments.
What you described ( or the OP artcile ) is a natural process because the growth of a company is tied to his core consumers and stokeholders thus if you want to keep the necessary growth for the ever increasing dimension of your company you must to accomodate who want generally increaseded updates ( core consumers ) and avoid risk and the unknown because stokeholders want certain safe performance.
An incremental way of thinking work ... for a while but ultimately bring to demise because you generally cut out new potential customers and bore people because you don't risk.
What Nintendo is doing is a paradigm shift:
Who is a gamer ? Potentially everyone.
Is progress exclusively defined by photorealism ( an incremental aspect fought over for twenty years ) ? No.
Taking some old Iwata's words:
"On the other hand, what's more prominent in my thinking these days is how our industry is getting smaller. We are smaller in the amount of risk we're willing to accept. We are also smaller in how we define videogames. The list of genres seems fixed - shooters, sports, platformers, puzzles, and so on. When is the last time we invented a new genre? But as importantly, even within these genres, we have reduced the environments we use. The racing tracks, the sound tracks, the bosses, the heroes, are starting to look more and more alike. Consider Tiger Woods Gold and Mario Golf - each a successful franchise, but using two different looks for this game genre. Such variety is becoming harder and harder to find.
We are even getting smaller in how we define progress. Making games look more photorealistic is not the only means of improving the game experience. I know, on this point I risk being misunderstood, so remember, I am a man who once programmed a baseball game with no baseball players. If anyone appreciates graphics, it's me! But my point is that this is just one path to improved game. We need to find others. Improvement has more than one definition.
Finally, I am most concerned with what we think of as a gamer. As we spend more time and money chasing exactly the same players, who are we leaving behind? Are we creating games just for each other? Do you have friends and family members who do not play videogames? Well, why don't they? And, I would ask this: how often have you challenged yourself to create a game that you might not play? I think these questions for an important challenge for all of us."
I agree with most of that, just that Nintendo are lending to the encouragement of bigger budgeted games and going to make Wii projects just as high risk and potentially damaging as any PS360. As they expand the size of the industry maybe the companies will be able to cope, I'm sure they will when you look at how PS360 developement has gone. More just stating some of the irony of the situation.
I'd say it's only a matter of time until EA or Activision or someone start trying to out-do Nintendo, push the budgets higher, market it even further etc, and then the trend continues and costs go higher, risks are more dangerous and most of what was detailed happens.
This isn't a problem. If there are consumers that want high quality, high budget games like Super Mario Galaxy they will buy them. But on Wii there are people that want to buy small projects too, projects that don't have state of art presentation and that can be profitable on relatively average sales. This is due to how Nintendo build the philosophy of their console. PS3 and Xbox 360 were always presented like avantgard of the cinematic trend, the hollywood style of thinking is high risks/high gains and cut out the small/mid size publishers, if not for digital distribution systems.
I want to note you that if Nintendo think that their profits are at risk and the indutry is ready for a revolution they will probably disrupt it again.
It is a problem for smaller studio's, for a variety of reasons. Retailers will ignore any game which isn't from a big publisher as less and less shelf space is avaliable. The audience for these 'small projects' will flock towards the ones with larger marketing budgets (As I think we're beginning to see with titles such as de Blob and Shaun White's), which once again favours the big boys. For me the smaller studio's will be cut out sooner or later, as retail don't have time for games with no sales guarentee and the big boys crack how to 'win' the new Wii market.
Video games as they currently are will always cut out the smaller studio eventually, in one way or another. Albeit we appear to be seeing the end of the indie developer age, and all the talented studios will be snapped up by major publishers anyway.
I don't think any console will change this unless we saw a revolution to the entire video games model (Digital Distribution could be that revolution) but for now the trend will continue on and on.
Digital distribution is really important because there are worthy products that could be very huge that simply can't find a way to be release and competitive on retailer shelves. Iwata made an example how Tetris, one of the most important piece of gaming software, would probably never be released in the current modern times.
However not all gaming products can be moved to DD system because there are certain advantages on using retailers like selling point. Also the consolidation process described in this thread probably will appear even on digital platforms.
What advantages are there in using retailers? DD would just mean you make more profit per unit sold, gets rid of the pre-owned market and eliminates the issue of shelf space. Also cuts production costs etc.
Digital Distribution would still lead to having big, behemoths at the top but it'd better support developement at the 'bottom' too. Smaller teams could price their projects much more accordingly and not need as big marketing. It's still a model i'm working on in my head anyway.
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