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Forums - Sales - Vgchartz hw numbers compared to Chart track, Gfk & Npd, bit of a difference

Lafiel on 30 January 2009

@ Louie )

I'm not trying to prove his point as the discussion in my opinion isn't worth entering without the next quarterly shipments data.



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Louie on 30 January 2009
cookingyourmama said:
Louie said:
cookingyourmama said:
Louie said:

cooking,

please stop accusing people of being silly. They do know something about sales.

Sony expected a much bigger Christmas for the PS3 (and retailers, vgchartz, every forum user in the world...) but the PS3 sales were lacking during Christmas. Just use your NPD data and look it up. Xbox 360 sales have been huge compared to the rest of the year while the PS3 has underperformed in comparism. Our users are really accurate when it comes to sales most of the time and most people overestimated the PS3 and underestimated the Xbox360. And stores did the same thing, they don't have any chrystal balls either. And yes, unlike you VGChartz actually talks to a lot of stores and has some evidence to back this claim up.

What that means is that there definitely are more PS3's on shelves than 360's. It's Sony's style anyways to stuff the channel a bit. They often do that.

About Wii sales: If the Wii wasn't sold out in the US during December then why exactly did Wii sales increase so much less than Ps3 and 360 sales? Because the casuals are buying it?

Edit: South America actually is 10% of the American sales, not 2%. Oh and yes the Xbox360 is performing better in the rest of America compared to the main market itself.

Some users know things about sales and some don't. What you have said does not 'definitely' mean more ps3's are on shelves, all you've said is just hear say, conjecture and rumours. The bottom line is vgchartz numbers for the 360 and wii are significantly different from chart track's, gfk's and npd's that's the only fact there is. If it was just one multimillion company that was different then you might be able to turn a blind eye to it, but three of them?!! The fact is retailers aren't stupid. When in october and november the ps3 sold either less or the same as it did the previous year why would retailers suddenly think in december the ps3 will sell significantly more then what it did in the previous december? It doesn't make any sense.

 

 

1) I didn't hear rumours, vgchartz is actually having connections to countless stores all over the world.

2) They really don't show a big difference at all. And it does make a difference if a console is in short supply or not. There are definitely a lot less Wii's on the shelves than PS3's. The console has been sold out for the whole year and December wasn't a lot bigger than November in the US. That's what NPD says! The source you claim is so valid. NPD numbers confirm the Wii was sold out during Christmas in the US. Or do you think it didn't see a boost in December because the console is a fad and people just decided to stop buying it in December?

3) Well. Maybe, just maybe, because the PS3 saw a huge Year over year growth and sold much better than in 2007 for the whole rest of the year? Hell look at NPD data, will you? NPD has the PS3 selling head to head with the 360 in the US for the whole year but November and December have been much higher for the 360 because of the price drop and the reccession. The PS3 is damn expensive and Sony and the retailers didn't expect the radical drop in demand for high priced products over christmas. Retailer aren't silly but so aren't the car industry, the whole electronics industry and quite every other industry in the world. Still almost all industries in the world overestimated Christmas demand and underestimated the reccession. But Sony didn't, right? Of course.

I don't really get where you get your arguments from, it just doesn't make sense.

1). Well yes they are rumours, hear say and conjecture which have been said to try and make vgchartz numbers make sense. Vgchartz does have connections to stores but who do you think has more connections vgchartz or chart track, gfk and npd? LOL do you even think it's close? And who has more experence at getting the sales data? If you answered vgchartz then you answered wrong.

2. So you don't think almost 1.3 million and almost 600,000 are big numbers? You need help. You keep making universal statements like the wii is sold out when it is a fact that in europe and japan the wii is not at all supply constrained. Plus you don't seem to grasp how the retail chain works. Even ignoring the fact the wii isn't sold out in europe and japan this is the journey a wii has to make before it gets sold. More wii's are sold every week then any other console so there for more wii's are produced each week to begin with. Once nintendo have agreed to sell wii's to a company then it counts as sold and appears on there shipped numbers. You seem to think that it instantly gets sold to a consumer so there for shipped=sold! The reality is more wii's are in transit and in retail warehouses each week then any other console to meet the demand of selling significantly more than the competition. So every week more wii's are unsold then the competion because more wii's are in transit around the world to get to retailers warehouses, more wii's are in retailers central warehouses waiting to be driven to each store and in each of the actual stores themselves they have more wii's out the back not on store shelves because there already is a larger amount of wii's on the shelves to begin with.

3. Retailers don't order stock over half a year in advance!! Retailers order stock on a weekly and monthly basis. Retailers know all about the economic crisis and know that expensive items won't sell well, so again retailers aren't stupid and they are not going to order double the ps3's they ordered the year before for december 2007 when for october and november 2008 combined the ps3 sold less then it for october and november 2007 the year before.

 

1) We have been right countless of times. I never claimed that we are closer to reality than anyone I said your analysis doesn't make sense. As I said NPD proves my point not yours.

2) I won't take the "you need help comment" as an insult this time. Stop insulting people, though. I definitely know how that system is working, you don't have to tell me that. And I also never made a universal statement, I said the Wii was sold out in America during Christmas and NPD proves my point. I never said it was in Europe or Japan but America is roughly 1/3 of the worldwide market so the number of Wii's on shelves can't be as high as PS3 numbers but that's what you say. What you say is Nintendo must have just as much Wii's on shelves than the PS3 despite the fact the Wii is sold out in America. Does that mean Nintendo has double the amount of consoles on shelves in Europe? And my bolded sentences confirms that you are the one who doesn't really understand how the system works... google the word "shipped" if you are keen. What you describe is what Sony used to do: Count every unit produced. Shipped means every unit actually shipped to the store, not every unit you agreed to ship to a store. Oh and BTW 1 million consoles on shelves isn't uncommon, no matter what you think.

3) Again, retailers ordered the numbers of PS3's yearly sales had been indicating. And that number was much higher. And again the whole industry overestimated Christmas demand. But still you claim "retailers aren't stupid". They definitely aren't but they couldn't estimate the effect of the reccession. Hell are you even reading the news at times? Do you think the videogaming industry is just magically the only industry in the world that didn't overestimate demand?

 

Edit: Again, I'm not even saying we are 100% spot on. But claiming all consoles have to have the same amount of units on shelves is just wrong. I also don't understand why you claim 1 million consoles on shelves is a lot but your "adjusted" vgchartz number for the PSP is 6 million units less than shipped figures?



Hapimeses on 30 January 2009

Personally, I found that to be pretty well argued, and I'd love to see a rebuttal of the OP that was as well considered. Is anyone able to step up with numbers and facts rather than supposition and belief?

I'm not saying he's right -- I have no idea -- but he's certainly convincing. Can anyone reasonably tackle his postulations?



Hapimeses.com

 

Louie on 30 January 2009
Hapimeses said:

Personally, I found that to be pretty well argued, and I'd love to see a rebuttal of the OP that was as well considered. Is anyone able to step up with numbers and facts rather than supposition and belief?

I'm not saying he's right -- I have no idea -- but he's certainly convincing. Can anyone reasonably tackle his postulations?

It comes down to this: You either think the videogaming industry is the only industry in the world that didn't overestimate demand and therefore the numbers definitely have to be adjusted and a console that is still sold out in 1/3 of the worldwide market should have as much consoles on the shelves than one console that was definitely overestimated prior to the holidays..

Or you think the gaming industry, just like every other industry in the world, underestimated the effect of the reccession.

 

 



Hapimeses on 30 January 2009
Louie said:
Hapimeses said:

Personally, I found that to be pretty well argued, and I'd love to see a rebuttal of the OP that was as well considered. Is anyone able to step up with numbers and facts rather than supposition and belief?

I'm not saying he's right -- I have no idea -- but he's certainly convincing. Can anyone reasonably tackle his postulations?

It comes down to this: You either think the videogaming industry is the only industry in the world that didn't overestimate demand and therefore the numbers definitely have to be adjusted and a console that is still sold out in 1/3 of the worldwide market should have as much consoles on the shelves than one console that was definitely overestimated prior to the holidays..

Or you think the gaming industry, just like every other industry in the world, underestimated the effect of the reccession.

 

 

No, I'm not sure if it does come down to that, judging by what the OP wrote. As far as I can see, what he is suggesting is that the numbers here contradict the numbers from other tracking agencies that are more likely to be correct. If this is the case, why is it the case? Does VGChartz have access to something they don't? Are the other trackers wrong? Is VGChartz wrong? All possible, and I'm intrigued as to the real answer.

Also, having working in retail for many year at many levels, I would have to agree that stock levels work closer to what cookingyourmama suggests than what you suggest; but this is in my experience only, and it may not apply here. It must be said that both descriptions presented in this thread are extrememly simplistic, but I suppose they have to be at the macro level concerning all companies.

I fully admit that I don't have any idea who is right or wrong here, but I do find the discrepancies, if cookingyourmama hasn't misrepresented them, odd, which was why I asked if anyone could tackle his numbers.



Hapimeses.com

 

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cookingyourmama on 30 January 2009
Louie said:
cookingyourmama said:
Louie said:
cookingyourmama said:
Louie said:

cooking,

please stop accusing people of being silly. They do know something about sales.

Sony expected a much bigger Christmas for the PS3 (and retailers, vgchartz, every forum user in the world...) but the PS3 sales were lacking during Christmas. Just use your NPD data and look it up. Xbox 360 sales have been huge compared to the rest of the year while the PS3 has underperformed in comparism. Our users are really accurate when it comes to sales most of the time and most people overestimated the PS3 and underestimated the Xbox360. And stores did the same thing, they don't have any chrystal balls either. And yes, unlike you VGChartz actually talks to a lot of stores and has some evidence to back this claim up.

What that means is that there definitely are more PS3's on shelves than 360's. It's Sony's style anyways to stuff the channel a bit. They often do that.

About Wii sales: If the Wii wasn't sold out in the US during December then why exactly did Wii sales increase so much less than Ps3 and 360 sales? Because the casuals are buying it?

Edit: South America actually is 10% of the American sales, not 2%. Oh and yes the Xbox360 is performing better in the rest of America compared to the main market itself.

Some users know things about sales and some don't. What you have said does not 'definitely' mean more ps3's are on shelves, all you've said is just hear say, conjecture and rumours. The bottom line is vgchartz numbers for the 360 and wii are significantly different from chart track's, gfk's and npd's that's the only fact there is. If it was just one multimillion company that was different then you might be able to turn a blind eye to it, but three of them?!! The fact is retailers aren't stupid. When in october and november the ps3 sold either less or the same as it did the previous year why would retailers suddenly think in december the ps3 will sell significantly more then what it did in the previous december? It doesn't make any sense.

 

 

1) I didn't hear rumours, vgchartz is actually having connections to countless stores all over the world.

2) They really don't show a big difference at all. And it does make a difference if a console is in short supply or not. There are definitely a lot less Wii's on the shelves than PS3's. The console has been sold out for the whole year and December wasn't a lot bigger than November in the US. That's what NPD says! The source you claim is so valid. NPD numbers confirm the Wii was sold out during Christmas in the US. Or do you think it didn't see a boost in December because the console is a fad and people just decided to stop buying it in December?

3) Well. Maybe, just maybe, because the PS3 saw a huge Year over year growth and sold much better than in 2007 for the whole rest of the year? Hell look at NPD data, will you? NPD has the PS3 selling head to head with the 360 in the US for the whole year but November and December have been much higher for the 360 because of the price drop and the reccession. The PS3 is damn expensive and Sony and the retailers didn't expect the radical drop in demand for high priced products over christmas. Retailer aren't silly but so aren't the car industry, the whole electronics industry and quite every other industry in the world. Still almost all industries in the world overestimated Christmas demand and underestimated the reccession. But Sony didn't, right? Of course.

I don't really get where you get your arguments from, it just doesn't make sense.

1). Well yes they are rumours, hear say and conjecture which have been said to try and make vgchartz numbers make sense. Vgchartz does have connections to stores but who do you think has more connections vgchartz or chart track, gfk and npd? LOL do you even think it's close? And who has more experence at getting the sales data? If you answered vgchartz then you answered wrong.

2. So you don't think almost 1.3 million and almost 600,000 are big numbers? You need help. You keep making universal statements like the wii is sold out when it is a fact that in europe and japan the wii is not at all supply constrained. Plus you don't seem to grasp how the retail chain works. Even ignoring the fact the wii isn't sold out in europe and japan this is the journey a wii has to make before it gets sold. More wii's are sold every week then any other console so there for more wii's are produced each week to begin with. Once nintendo have agreed to sell wii's to a company then it counts as sold and appears on there shipped numbers. You seem to think that it instantly gets sold to a consumer so there for shipped=sold! The reality is more wii's are in transit and in retail warehouses each week then any other console to meet the demand of selling significantly more than the competition. So every week more wii's are unsold then the competion because more wii's are in transit around the world to get to retailers warehouses, more wii's are in retailers central warehouses waiting to be driven to each store and in each of the actual stores themselves they have more wii's out the back not on store shelves because there already is a larger amount of wii's on the shelves to begin with.

3. Retailers don't order stock over half a year in advance!! Retailers order stock on a weekly and monthly basis. Retailers know all about the economic crisis and know that expensive items won't sell well, so again retailers aren't stupid and they are not going to order double the ps3's they ordered the year before for december 2007 when for october and november 2008 combined the ps3 sold less then it for october and november 2007 the year before.

 

1) We have been right countless of times. I never claimed that we are closer to reality than anyone I said your analysis doesn't make sense. As I said NPD proves my point not yours.

2) I won't take the "you need help comment" as an insult this time. Stop insulting people, though. I definitely know how that system is working, you don't have to tell me that. And I also never made a universal statement, I said the Wii was sold out in America during Christmas and NPD proves my point. I never said it was in Europe or Japan but America is roughly 1/3 of the worldwide market so the number of Wii's on shelves can't be as high as PS3 numbers but that's what you say. What you say is Nintendo must have just as much Wii's on shelves than the PS3 despite the fact the Wii is sold out in America. Does that mean Nintendo has double the amount of consoles on shelves in Europe? And my bolded sentences confirms that you are the one who doesn't really understand how the system works... google the word "shipped" if you are keen. What you describe is what Sony used to do: Count every unit produced. Shipped means every unit actually shipped to the store, not every unit you agreed to ship to a store. Oh and BTW 1 million consoles on shelves isn't uncommon, no matter what you think.

3) Again, retailers ordered the numbers of PS3's yearly sales had been indicating. And that number was much higher. And again the whole industry overestimated Christmas demand. But still you claim "retailers aren't stupid". They definitely aren't but they couldn't estimate the effect of the reccession. Hell are you even reading the news at times? Do you think the videogaming industry is just magically the only industry in the world that didn't overestimate demand?

1). As many times as vgchartz has been right they have also been wrong so have no point there. The numbers i have posted are facts and my analysis makes perfect sense and you are yet to prove it wrong. NPD proved my point not yours. Instead of just saying 'i am right you are wrong' actually post numbers with a detailed explanation to back it up because so far you have provided none of these things.

2). Again you have got it totally wrong. To begin with the wii isn't totally sold out in america, if you look around enough you can find one, being hard to find and totally sold out are two completely different things. And you have got how things being counted as shipped wrong as well. Nintendo produces the wii in their factories then puts them in storage at the factory or in one of their own warehouses, at this point it is NOT shipped. Once they have received an order for their console and it leaves their warehouse then it is SHIPPED, but guess what it isn't SOLD yet. Like i said the reality is more wii's are in transit and in retail warehouses each week then any other console to meet the demand of selling significantly more than the competition. So every week more wii's are unsold then the competion because more wii's are in transit around the world to get to retailers warehouses, more wii's are in retailers central warehouses waiting to be driven to each individual store and in each of the actual stores themselves they have more wii's out the back not on store shelves because there already is a larger amount of wii's on the shelves to begin with. So guess what wii's are still available in america to buy so there isn't 1/3 less of them like you think. Regardless of how many you think are/aren't on store shelves in america, worldwide significantly more wii's are in transit from nintendo to retailers warehouses, significantly more are in storage at retailers warehouses and significantly more in transit from retailers to their individual stores.

3. You can run around in circles all you want but the fact is retailers order stock on a weekly and monthly basis not every half or full year. Retailers fully knew about the recession because they were right in the middle of it and retailers know that expensive items are hurt the most by recessions and won't sell very well. You can try and avoid it all you want but retailers aren't going to order twice the amount of ps3's for december 2008 compared to 2007 when in october+november 2008 the ps3 sold less then october+november 2007. But hey you know what, you're just splitting hairs about the ps3 because out of all the data the ps3 is the closest, if you're trying to argue with me then you should be trying to prove chart track's, gfk's and npd's numbers for the 360, wii and ds wrong.



Louie on 30 January 2009
Hapimeses said:
Louie said:
Hapimeses said:

Personally, I found that to be pretty well argued, and I'd love to see a rebuttal of the OP that was as well considered. Is anyone able to step up with numbers and facts rather than supposition and belief?

I'm not saying he's right -- I have no idea -- but he's certainly convincing. Can anyone reasonably tackle his postulations?

It comes down to this: You either think the videogaming industry is the only industry in the world that didn't overestimate demand and therefore the numbers definitely have to be adjusted and a console that is still sold out in 1/3 of the worldwide market should have as much consoles on the shelves than one console that was definitely overestimated prior to the holidays..

Or you think the gaming industry, just like every other industry in the world, underestimated the effect of the reccession.

 

 

No, I'm not sure if it does come down to that, judging by what the OP wrote. As far as I can see, what he is suggesting is that the numbers here contradict the numbers from other tracking agencies that are more likely to be correct. If this is the case, why is it the case? Does VGChartz have access to something they don't? Are the other trackers wrong? Is VGChartz wrong? All possible, and I'm intrigued as to the real answer.

Also, having working in retail for many year at many levels, I would have to agree that stock levels work closer to what cookingyourmama suggests than what you suggest; but this is in my experience only, and it may not apply here. It must be said that both descriptions presented in this thread are extrememly simplistic, but I suppose they have to be at the macro level concerning all companies.

I fully admit that I don't have any idea who is right or wrong here, but I do find the discrepancies, if cookingyourmama hasn't misrepresented them, odd, which was why I asked if anyone could tackle his numbers.

 

Hehe well that's where it gets complicated here

I never claimed we are right and the others are wrong. I only tackled his idea that there must be the same amount of each console on the shelves, as that's what his "adjusted" numbers suggest (if I didn't read them wrong of course :p)

He also had the PSP 6 million below the shipment number in those adjustments, which is definitely too much. But You always have to remember that we had a reccession and the PS3 really underperformed during Christmas because of the Xbox360's price drop and thus Sony has probably overshipped. And you have to remember that we are talking about 1 million consoles on shelves worldwide which is less than 2 weeks of sales during the Christmas period (remember the first 2 weeks of January mostly sees consoles still moving a lot of units so the it's not like console were collecting dust on shelves.) Of course that would be a different story during the downtime of the year.



DKII on 30 January 2009

This thread is premature, Brett's still adjusting the numbers, come back in a week.



Hapimeses on 30 January 2009
DKII said:
This thread is premature, Brett's still adjusting the numbers, come back in a week.

That sounds like a pretty definitive answer to me, thanks for chiming in.



Hapimeses.com

 

Louie on 30 January 2009
cookingyourmama said:

1). As many times as vgchartz has been right they have also been wrong so have no point there. The numbers i have posted are facts and my analysis makes perfect sense and you are yet to prove it wrong. NPD proved my point not yours. Instead of just saying 'i am right you are wrong' actually post numbers with a detailed explanation to back it up because so far you have provided none of these things.

2). Again you have got it totally wrong. To begin with the wii isn't totally sold out in america, if you look around enough you can find one, being hard to find and totally sold out are two completely different things. And you have got how things being counted as shipped wrong as well. Nintendo produces the wii in their factories then puts them in storage at the factory or in one of their own warehouses, at this point it is NOT shipped. Once they have received an order for there console and it leaves there warehouse and then it is SHIPPED, but guess what it isn't SOLD yet. Like i said the reality is more wii's are in transit and in retail warehouses each week then any other console to meet the demand of selling significantly more than the competition. So every week more wii's are unsold then the competion because more wii's are in transit around the world to get to retailers warehouses, more wii's are in retailers central warehouses waiting to be driven to each individual store and in each of the actual stores themselves they have more wii's out the back not on store shelves because there already is a larger amount of wii's on the shelves to begin with. So guess what wii's are still available in america to buy so there isn't 1/3 less of them like you think. Regardless of how many you think are/aren't on store shelves in america, worldwide significantly more wii's are in transit from nintendo to retailers warehouses, significantly more are in storage at retailers warehouses and significantly more in transit from retailers to their individual stores.

3. You can run around in circles all you want but the fact is retailers order stock on a weekly and monthly basis not every half or full year. Retailers fully knew about the recession because they were right in the middle of it and retailers know that expensive items are hurt the most by recessions and won't sell very well. You can try and avoid it all you want but retailers aren't going to order twice the amount of ps3's for december 2008 compared to 2007 when in october+november 2008 the ps3 sold less then october+november 2007. But hey you know what, you're just splitting hairs about the ps3 because out of all the data the ps3 is the closest, if you're trying to argue with me then you should be trying to prove chart track's, gfk's and npd's numbers for the 360, wii and ds wrong.

 

1. Again, I never said we are 100% spot on. I definitely agree with you here

2. Well, hard to find basically means demand is still higher than production rate.

About the shipped thing: That's basically what I said :p

Look if there were 2 million Wii sold in the US in December according to NPD (after 2 million in November as well) that definitely gives me the impression the console was sold out in the US. I agree retailers have to order things on a weekly basis but we are talking about Christmas. You have to order the amount of consoles some weeks prior because if you underestimate the demand during christmas you'll never get those sales back. Sales radically decrease after Christmas. And it wouldn't make sense for Nintendo and the stores to have a high number of consoles in transit during the last days of December: Retailers would sit on a huge pile of Wii units in january then. You have to get those consoles some weeks prior to christmas because if you get them too late you'll sit on a pile of consoles. And they won't sell in January.

 

3. The whole industry did it, though