I the worst case scenario, it's safe to say that the Wii will have atleast 20 millions consoles sold by the end of 2008, and even if the sales come to an absolute halt after 2008., 20 million is still a more than enough to interest 3rd party developers in developing for wii. Lower costs and shorter developement time will even give the opportunity to smaller talented dev teams. Besides, i'm sure that Nintendo will be the first who will be able to lower the Wii price down to 100$ if the sales go bad, and that would virtually turn any better game into a system seller.

I guess the current issue with 3rd party Wii developement is the lack of knowledge of getting most out of the hardware. I'm sure that nintendo keeps some stuff to themselves, so their games wouldn't be graphically overshadowed by some 3rd party game. I'm sure that with time this will change as devs will be putting more time and effort in getting around hardware issues and limitations.

The thing that Wii currently needs from 3rd parties is a GTA spinoff game announcement and an announcement of a lightsaber oriented SW game.

I say that it all comes down to time ...

Developers have had high expectations for the Wii (at best) for a touch over 1 year now; after Nintendo showed of the Wii at E3 in may of 2006. Before this, third parties believed 'da hype' and saw the PS3 as the obvious winner to this generation; the XBox 360 was considered an important console in North America for the near future. The point at which all developers would be forced to pay attention to the Wii is (more or less) just about to happen as the Wii becomes the top selling console of the generation.

So, using that timeframe we know that a lot of Wii games would have had (at best) about 1 year of development at this point in time with a large portion of Wii games having less than 6 months of development. The larger games that people notice are not that available on the Wii probably take between 18 and 30 months to develop. What this means is that most of the larger games we can expect down the road for the Wii are probably not at a point where developers feel all that comfortable showing them.

Basically, suppose that Capcom is pleased with the sales of Resident Evil 4 on the Wii (which, according to their sales projections, they should be) and decided to create a Resident Evil spin-off and a Dino-Crisis game for the Wii. These games would probably have began development right about now, we wouldn't be able to play them until mid 2008, and they wouldn't be released until Q4 2008 or Q1 2009 (at the earliest).

The thing is - Wii is capable of creating new major third party developers as it's not only cheap to develop on (in relation of course) but it's the first platform in years where your imagination could be the major factor in producing a major hit.

We've seen clips like pollen sonata where a small developer has had a refreshing idea and ran with it, by the third cycle of wii games konamis, Capcoms (bad example - i've really liked their contribution for the wii so far) etc may just get left behind when others have really got to grasps with the wii's controller.

well we can see now what we get ubi creates a complete new family line for the wii ea does the same.
cruis'in looks like complete crap. No effort at all. not even gamecube level.

And a lot of ps3/xbox360/pc games got announced yet again.
Now tell me my fear is still wrong.

Well, many devs think they can release some cheap crap on Wii (and DS) to raise funds to develop some expansive "real" next-gen games on PS3 and 360... and you know what? They'll soon realize that people are not idiots, even when considered as "casual" or "family".. and also that "real" Nintendo fans are some of the most demanding gamers out there, who prefer quality over quantity... i think most of the games you mention will flop, and it will be a well desearved result...

And 3rd parties won't have to blame Nintendo and find such arguments as "only Nintendo games sell on Nintendo consoles"... cos' i think the really good "hardcore" games and  the really fun "casual" games will sell very very well, and will show them the way to go... 

It's up to us, users and consumers, to be selective in our (very expensive) games purchases: read reviews on the net, boycott the crap, buy only the excellent games in the genres we like most, and maybe also, support the most creative devs when they're actually doin' some real efforts... Zack & Wiki is maybe the best example this holiday season: it will be a great game, and Capcom desearves to be rewarded with great sales...

And maybe the Wii's "Top Spin" in 2008 will have that "universal appeal" to be a hit: it's that kind of fun "casual gamers" want on their Wii, and not the Ubi/EA "casual" crap, or at least i hope so...

So have no fear: even with 90% of pure crap or so-so games, 10% of Wii titles will be worth if (just as only 10% of PS2 games were worth it, if not even less, btw)... and with more and more games comin' our way, any type of gamer will be more than satisfied, and maybe some won't have the time (or money) to get into all the future great Wii games... 

Hope you don't mind me splitting hairs, but I'd say that developers didn't have high expectations of the Wii until after it launched. They were intrigued by it, and hoped it wouldn't flop completely, but I suspect they all figured Wii would be in second place at most this generation (and to be fair, it still might end up there). Giving them a year is extremely generous - I suspect most really didn't go gangbusters until they saw it selling out in January and February, and now they're scrambling to catch up. Otherwise I agree completely.

 Now... where'd you hear about Dino Crisis?

Well to come back to this topic Its been a few weeks later and more and more xbox360/ps3 games are getting announced Sega even announced an exclusive new yakuza game in famitsu today.

So you guys tell me they are not doing as I said.
Lol sega is bringing only crap games ( sonic gravity and that stupid picture puzzle game something)

Nah I think they will only get good first party games and very few third party rest will all be either xbox360/ps3 or ps3 exclusive atleast in japan.

If you own just a wii i would get a PS3 or 360 if you want big games. Third parties have never been big for Nintendo, and Nintendo does not care. They don't care to have third party support, this would mean less people buying the stuff Nintendo makes.

Nintendo is swimming in Money, either they don't want big third party games or they went to the third parties and they just laughed at Nintendo, and they said sure we will port PS2 games over to the wii, but the big titles will not go to the wii.

The wii is just a way for third parties to fund the big games for the 360/PS3/PC.

The wii has plently of "big games" for me but it's just sad it gets all this crap.

I don't need a ps3 or xbox360 I never had a console ( yeah a megadrive 16 bits ) and i dont intend to have one else.

If I want graphics I use my pc ( e6600 4 gig ddr 800 mhz 8800 gtx with SLI extension)

I never seen why people want a console it's always behind.

And tbh I know you are a ps3 fanboy ( I read about everything but hardly respond) so I would have guessed you pulled the "wii is just for the side" on me. 

@densiyrex:
scroll back up and read famousringo's post. I couldn't agree more with him that most 3rd party developers where surprised by the wii's success which nobody foresaw until less than a year ago.
So don't expect good 3rd party games on the wii until in a year or so (maybe even more). But they will come because they cannot ignore the massive userbase the wii is going to have.