I think it would be more likely to finish MS. With the current economy any new console would face a tough battle right now, particularly one that felt unnecessary.
I really don't think a 360 with a bit more memory and new graphics card would work - it would need to be new from the ground up. Also, given track record of 360 reliability I shudder at impact of suddenly slamming a bit more horsepower in the box. And to release a proper new Xbox they'd need to sink serious money into it and fast.
While diehard 360 owners would switch a lot would feel betrayed, and I doubt in the current economy devs are looking for another round of costs in learning a new system
No, for better or worse MS needs to stick with 360 for at least 2 more years IMHO. Maybe 3 if the economy stays in a trough for another 18 to 24 months.