I'm underlining who I think will win and italicizing my second choice.

http://www.oscar.com/nominees/?pn=nominees

Performance by an actor in a leading role

• Richard Jenkins in "The Visitor" (Overture Films)
• Frank Langella in "Frost/Nixon" (Universal)
• Sean Penn in "Milk" (Focus Features)
• Brad Pitt in "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" (Paramount and Warner Bros.)
• Mickey Rourke in "The Wrestler" (Fox Searchlight)

Performance by an actor in a supporting role

• Josh Brolin in "Milk" (Focus Features)
• Robert Downey Jr. in "Tropic Thunder" (DreamWorks, Distributed by DreamWorks/Paramount)
• Philip Seymour Hoffman in "Doubt" (Miramax)
• Heath Ledger in "The Dark Knight" (Warner Bros.)
• Michael Shannon in "Revolutionary Road" (DreamWorks, Distributed by Paramount Vantage)

Performance by an actress in a leading role

• Anne Hathaway in "Rachel Getting Married" (Sony Pictures Classics)
• Angelina Jolie in "Changeling" (Universal)
• Melissa Leo in "Frozen River" (Sony Pictures Classics)
• Meryl Streep in "Doubt" (Miramax)
• Kate Winslet in "The Reader" (The Weinstein Company)

Performance by an actress in a supporting role (Too close to call)

• Amy Adams in "Doubt" (Miramax)
• Penélope Cruz in "Vicky Cristina Barcelona" (The Weinstein Company)
• Viola Davis in "Doubt" (Miramax)
• Taraji P. Henson in "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" (Paramount and Warner Bros.)
• Marisa Tomei in "The Wrestler" (Fox Searchlight)

Best animated feature film of the year

• "Bolt" (Walt Disney)

  Chris Williams and Byron Howard

• "Kung Fu Panda" (DreamWorks Animation, Distributed by Paramount)

  John Stevenson and Mark Osborne

• "WALL-E" (Walt Disney)

  Andrew Stanton

Achievement in art direction

• "Changeling" (Universal)

  Art Direction: James J. Murakami Set Decoration: Gary Fettis

• "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" (Paramount and Warner Bros.)

  Art Direction: Donald Graham Burt Set Decoration: Victor J. Zolfo

• "The Dark Knight" (Warner Bros.)

  Art Direction: Nathan Crowley Set Decoration: Peter Lando

• "The Duchess" (Paramount Vantage, Pathé and BBC Films)

  Art Direction: Michael Carlin Set Decoration: Rebecca Alleway

• "Revolutionary Road" (DreamWorks, Distributed by Paramount Vantage)

  Art Direction: Kristi Zea Set Decoration: Debra Schutt

Achievement in cinematography

• "Changeling" (Universal)

  Tom Stern

• "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" (Paramount and Warner Bros.)

  Claudio Miranda

• "The Dark Knight" (Warner Bros.)

  Wally Pfister

• "The Reader" (The Weinstein Company)

  Chris Menges and Roger Deakins

• "Slumdog Millionaire" (Fox Searchlight)

  Anthony Dod Mantle

Achievement in costume design

• "Australia" (20th Century Fox)

  Catherine Martin

• "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" (Paramount and Warner Bros.)

  Jacqueline West

• "The Duchess" (Paramount Vantage, Pathé and BBC Films)

  Michael O'Connor

• "Milk" (Focus Features)

  Danny Glicker

• "Revolutionary Road" (DreamWorks, Distributed by Paramount Vantage)

  Albert Wolsky

Achievement in directing

• "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" (Paramount and Warner Bros.)

  David Fincher

• "Frost/Nixon" (Universal)

  Ron Howard

• "Milk" (Focus Features)

  Gus Van Sant

• "The Reader" (The Weinstein Company)

  Stephen Daldry

• "Slumdog Millionaire" (Fox Searchlight)

  Danny Boyle

Best documentary feature

• "The Betrayal (Nerakhoon)" (Cinema Guild) A Pandinlao Films Production

  Ellen Kuras and Thavisouk Phrasavath

• "Encounters at the End of the World" (THINKFilm and Image Entertainment) A Creative Differences Production

  Werner Herzog and Henry Kaiser

• "The Garden" A Black Valley Films Production

  Scott Hamilton Kennedy

• "Man on Wire" (Magnolia Pictures) A Wall to Wall Production

  James Marsh and Simon Chinn

• "Trouble the Water" (Zeitgeist Films) An Elsewhere Films Production

  Tia Lessin and Carl Deal

Best documentary short subject

• "The Conscience of Nhem En" A Farallon Films Production

  Steven Okazaki

• "The Final Inch" A Vermilion Films Production

  Irene Taylor Brodsky and Tom Grant

• "Smile Pinki" A Principe Production

  Megan Mylan

• "The Witness - From the Balcony of Room 306" A Rock Paper Scissors Production

  Adam Pertofsky and Margaret Hyde

Achievement in film editing

• "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" (Paramount and Warner Bros.)

  Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall

• "The Dark Knight" (Warner Bros.)

  Lee Smith

• "Frost/Nixon" (Universal)

  Mike Hill and Dan Hanley

• "Milk" (Focus Features)

  Elliot Graham

• "Slumdog Millionaire" (Fox Searchlight)

  Chris Dickens

Best foreign language film of the year

• "The Baader Meinhof Complex" A Constantin Film Production - Germany
• "The Class" (Sony Pictures Classics) A Haut et Court Production - France
• "Departures" (Regent Releasing) A Departures Film Partners Production - Japan
• "Revanche" (Janus Films) A Prisma Film/Fernseh Production - Austria
• "Waltz with Bashir" (Sony Pictures Classics) A Bridgit Folman Film Gang Production - Israel

Achievement in makeup

• "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" (Paramount and Warner Bros.)

  Greg Cannom

• "The Dark Knight" (Warner Bros.)

  John Caglione, Jr. and Conor O'Sullivan

• "Hellboy II: The Golden Army" (Universal)

  Mike Elizalde and Thom Floutz

Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original score)

• "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" (Paramount and Warner Bros.)

  Alexandre Desplat

• "Defiance" (Paramount Vantage)

  James Newton Howard

• "Milk" (Focus Features)

  Danny Elfman

• "Slumdog Millionaire" (Fox Searchlight)

  A.R. Rahman

• "WALL-E" (Walt Disney)

  Thomas Newman

Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original song)

• "Down to Earth" from "WALL-E" (Walt Disney)

  Music by Peter Gabriel and Thomas Newman Lyric by Peter Gabriel

• "Jai Ho" from "Slumdog Millionaire" (Fox Searchlight)

  Music by A.R. Rahman Lyric by Gulzar

• "O Saya" from "Slumdog Millionaire" (Fox Searchlight)

  Music and Lyric by A.R. Rahman and Maya Arulpragasam

Best motion picture of the year

• "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" (Paramount and Warner Bros.) A Kennedy/Marshall Production

  Kathleen Kennedy, Frank Marshall and Ceán Chaffin, Producers

• "Frost/Nixon" (Universal) A Universal Pictures, Imagine Entertainment and Working Title Production

  Brian Grazer, Ron Howard and Eric Fellner, Producers

• "Milk" (Focus Features) A Groundswell and Jinks/Cohen Company Production

  Dan Jinks and Bruce Cohen, Producers

• "The Reader" (The Weinstein Company) A Mirage Enterprises and Neunte Babelsberg Film GmbH Production

  Nominees to be determined

• "Slumdog Millionaire" (Fox Searchlight) A Celador Films Production

  Christian Colson, Producer

Best animated short film

• "La Maison en Petits Cubes" A Robot Communications Production

  Kunio Kato

• "Lavatory - Lovestory" A Melnitsa Animation Studio and CTB Film Company Production

  Konstantin Bronzit

• "Oktapodi" (Talantis Films) A Gobelins, L'école de l'image Production

  Emud Mokhberi and Thierry Marchand

• "Presto" (Walt Disney) A Pixar Animation Studios Production

  Doug Sweetland

• "This Way Up" A Nexus Production

  Alan Smith and Adam Foulkes

Best live action short film

• "Auf der Strecke (On the Line)" (Hamburg Shortfilmagency) An Academy of Media Arts Cologne Production

  Reto Caffi

• "Manon on the Asphalt" (La Luna Productions) A La Luna Production

  Elizabeth Marre and Olivier Pont

• "New Boy" (Network Ireland Television) A Zanzibar Films Production

  Steph Green and Tamara Anghie

• "The Pig" An M & M Production

  Tivi Magnusson and Dorte Høgh

• "Spielzeugland (Toyland)" A Mephisto Film Production

  Jochen Alexander Freydank

Achievement in sound editing

• "The Dark Knight" (Warner Bros.)

  Richard King

• "Iron Man" (Paramount and Marvel Entertainment)

  Frank Eulner and Christopher Boyes

• "Slumdog Millionaire" (Fox Searchlight)

  Tom Sayers

• "WALL-E" (Walt Disney)

  Ben Burtt and Matthew Wood

• "Wanted" (Universal)

  Wylie Stateman

Achievement in sound mixing

• "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" (Paramount and Warner Bros.)

  David Parker, Michael Semanick, Ren Klyce and Mark Weingarten

• "The Dark Knight" (Warner Bros.)

  Lora Hirschberg, Gary Rizzo and Ed Novick

• "Slumdog Millionaire" (Fox Searchlight)

  Ian Tapp, Richard Pryke and Resul Pookutty

• "WALL-E" (Walt Disney)

  Tom Myers, Michael Semanick and Ben Burtt

• "Wanted" (Universal)

  Chris Jenkins, Frank A. Montaño and Petr Forejt

Achievement in visual effects

• "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" (Paramount and Warner Bros.)

  Eric Barba, Steve Preeg, Burt Dalton and Craig Barron

• "The Dark Knight" (Warner Bros.)

  Nick Davis, Chris Corbould, Tim Webber and Paul Franklin

• "Iron Man" (Paramount and Marvel Entertainment)

  John Nelson, Ben Snow, Dan Sudick and Shane Mahan

Adapted screenplay

• "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" (Paramount and Warner Bros.)

  Screenplay by Eric Roth Screen story by Eric Roth and Robin Swicord

• "Doubt" (Miramax)

  Written by John Patrick Shanley

• "Frost/Nixon" (Universal)

  Screenplay by Peter Morgan

• "The Reader" (The Weinstein Company)

  Screenplay by David Hare

• "Slumdog Millionaire" (Fox Searchlight)

  Screenplay by Simon Beaufoy

Original screenplay

• "Frozen River" (Sony Pictures Classics)

  Written by Courtney Hunt

• "Happy-Go-Lucky" (Miramax)

  Written by Mike Leigh

• "In Bruges" (Focus Features)

  Written by Martin McDonagh

• "Milk" (Focus Features)

  Written by Dustin Lance Black

• "WALL-E" (Walt Disney)

  Screenplay by Andrew Stanton, Jim Reardon Original story by Andrew Stanton, Pete Docter

Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences

- MOTION PICTURE NOMINATIONS - 81ST AWARDS

- NOMINATIONS BY PICTURE -

(This list does not include Short Films or Documentary Short Subjects)

"Australia," a 20th Century Fox/Bazmark Film 2 Pty Ltd Production (20th Century Fox) (1 nomination)

"The Baader Meinhof Complex," a Constantin Film Production (1 nomination)

"The Betrayal (Nerakhoon)," a Pandinlao Films Production (Cinema Guild) (1 nomination)

"Bolt," a Walt Disney Pictures Production (Walt Disney) (1 nomination)

"Changeling," a Universal Pictures and Imagine Entertainment Production (Universal) (3 nominations)

"The Class," a Haut et Court Production (Sony Pictures Classics) (1 nomination)

"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button," a Kennedy/Marshall Production (Paramount and Warner Bros.) (13 nominations)

"The Dark Knight," a Cape Road Limited Production (Warner Bros.) (8 nominations)

"Defiance," a Grosvenor Park/Bedford Falls Production (Paramount Vantage) (1 nomination)

"Departures," a Departures Film Partners Production (Regent Releasing) (1 nomination)

"Doubt," a Scott Rudin Production (Miramax) (5 nominations)

"The Duchess," a Qwerty Films/Magnolia Mae Films in association with Pathé Renn and BIM Distribuzione Production (Paramount Vantage, Pathé and BBC Films) (2 nominations)

"Encounters at the End of the World," a Creative Differences Production (THINKFilm and Image Entertainment) (1 nomination)

"Frost/Nixon," a Universal Pictures, Imagine Entertainment and Working Title Production (Universal) (5 nominations)

"Frozen River," a Harwood Hunt Production (Sony Pictures Classics) (2 nominations)

"The Garden," a Black Valley Films Production (1 nomination)

"Happy-Go-Lucky," a Thin Man Films/Simon Channing Williams Production (Miramax) (1 nomination)

"Hellboy II: The Golden Army," a Universal Pictures Production (Universal) (1 nomination)

"In Bruges," a Blueprint Pictures Production (Focus Features) (1 nomination)

"Iron Man," a Marvel Studios Production (Paramount and Marvel Entertainment) (2 nominations)

"Kung Fu Panda," a DreamWorks Animation LLC Production (DreamWorks Animation, Distributed by Paramount) (1 nomination)

"Man on Wire," a Wall to Wall Production (Magnolia Pictures) (1 nomination)

"Milk," a Groundswell and Jinks/Cohen Company Production (Focus Features) (8 nominations)

"Rachel Getting Married," a Clinica Estetico Production (Sony Pictures Classics) (1 nomination)

"The Reader," a Mirage Enterprises and Neunte Babelsberg Film GmbH Production (The Weinstein Company) (5 nominations)

"Revanche," a Prisma Film/Fernseh Production (Janus Films) (1 nomination)

"Revolutionary Road," an Evamere Entertainment, BBC Films and Neal Street Production (DreamWorks, Distributed by Paramount Vantage) (3 nominations)

"Slumdog Millionaire," a Celador Films Production (Fox Searchlight) (10 nominations)

"Tropic Thunder," a Red Hour Production (DreamWorks, Distributed by DreamWorks/ Paramount) (1 nomination)

"Trouble the Water," an Elsewhere Films Production (Zeitgeist Films) (1 nomination)

"Vicky Cristina Barcelona," a Weinstein Company Production (The Weinstein Company) (1 nomination)

"The Visitor," a Groundswell, Participant, Next Wednesday Production (Overture Films) (1 nomination)

"WALL-E," a Pixar Animation Studios Production (Walt Disney) (6 nominations)

"Waltz with Bashir," a Bridgit Folman Film Gang Production (Sony Pictures Classics) (1 nomination)

"Wanted," a Universal Pictures and Spyglass Entertainment Production (Universal) (2 nominations)

"The Wrestler," a Protozoa Pictures/Wild Bunch Production (Fox Searchlight) (2 nominations)

Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences

- MOTION PICTURE NOMINATIONS - 81ST AWARDS -

- FEATURE FILMS WITH TWO OR MORE NOMINATIONS -

(This list does not include Short Films or Documentary Short Subjects.)

Needs more in Bruges!

Was Gran Torino released in time to qualify for nominations?

I would have liked to have seen Eastwood get and award for acting. He's never gotten it, he was fantastic in the movie and he has said that it may likely be his last acting role.

Anyhow, I agree with most of your predictions, although I think Viola Davis should win Best Supporting Actress. Watching her hold her ground against Meryll Streep was amazing. I hope her lack of screen time don't cloud her chances.

I was also hoping that WALL-E would get a nod for Best Motion Piction, but that's just wishful thinking.

Yes it was.  They snubbed it.  I never saw the movie so I won't commit.

If Wall-E runs for Best Picture it can't run for Best Animated Film.  It was a good movie, but Ratatouille deserved the nomination more than Wall-E, personally.

Well quite a few surprises here. The Reader really snuck up out of nowhere, but it shouldn't be surprising. The Weinsteins have been notorious for sneaking in those noms and wins.

I'm surprised to see Richard Jenkins' nod. That was totally left field.

Kate Winselt being up for the Reader for Best Actress is going to cost her. They should have bumped her to Best Supporting so her Revolutionary Road appearance had a chance there. She would have walked off with one of the two guaranteed.

Amy Adams and Viola Davis will split the votes and both will lose because of it. This is going to give Taraji P. Henson the win because there's no way Marisa Tomei is getting a second one in the same category unless they really felt her performance was head and feet above the rest.

I'm really happy to see Michael Shannon get the nod for Revolutionary Road. He was awesome in it. Always a creepy guy he is.

Akuma, you're still really holding out for Benjamin Button huh? I don't know whether it's the late opening or just critic backlash. If it's the former it could sneak in the win, but otherwise Slumdog looks like a shoe-in at this point.

I'm going to look at trends in the other awards to see which way the Academy is likely to vote. I'll post them here when I'm done.

i hope wall-e wins

I wouldn't worry. Wall-E is a shoe-in to win Best Animated Feature.

You kidding?  Benjamin Button got 13 NOMINATIONS total.  Slumdog got 10.  That is a huge sign right there.  The movie with the most nominations tends to win.  If anything I am more confident.  The most nominations any movie has ever got is 14.  I don't think there is any movie that has gotten 13 nominations and lost. 

Plus I have seen Slumdog, and while it is either my 2nd or 3rd choice for best picture, I don't think it is the year's best film.  Not to mention I thought the main actor's performance was just plain bad at times.  That isn't to say I didn't enjoy the film a lot, I just got sick of that actor.  Notably, he wasn't nominated.

2008 -

There Will Be Blood and No Country for Old Men tied for most with 8.

2007

The Departed had 5.  This year was an exception.

2006

An exception, Crash got it with 6 nominees and Brokeback had 8.  My guess is the controversy around the film contributed.

2005

An exception, Million Dollary Baby got it while The Aviator led.

2004

Lord of the Rings (11) had the most and won.

2003

Chicago (13) had the most and won.  Next runner up, Gangs of New York had 10.

2002

Exception, Beautiful Mind got it while Two Towers had more.  That isn't very surprising though comparing the films.

2001

Gladiator won and had the most.

2000

The numbers of nominations are harder to find, but American Beauty won and it appears to have had the most nominations as well.

1999

Shakespeare in Love had the most and won best picture.

1998

Titanic had the most and won best picture.

So that is 6 out of 10 for the last ten years, which gives Benjamin Button a slight lead.  Notably, Oscar history supports this trend as well.  Benjamin Button's odds are better because it got nominated in so many major categories, the only one in which it didn't was Best Actress.

Although he won't get it Sean Penn deserves for milk . His performance is hair-raising. At least give it o to Rourke , although something ridiculous will happen like a Langella or Pit win

Pitt for best actor? Please...
I saw Benjamin Button recently and it is awsome. Haven't seen Slumdog Millionare, coz it hasn't been released here yet.
I'm going to see the Wrestler as soon as I have a chance.
Heath is going to win obviously, but I'm glad to see Downey Jr as a nominee. He was freakin hillarious in that one.