Academy Award Nominees Posted

[akuma587]

Onyxmeth said:

Well quite a few surprises here. The Reader really snuck up out of nowhere, but it shouldn't be surprising. The Weinsteins have been notorious for sneaking in those noms and wins.

I'm surprised to see Richard Jenkins' nod. That was totally left field.

Kate Winselt being up for the Reader for Best Actress is going to cost her. They should have bumped her to Best Supporting so her Revolutionary Road appearance had a chance there. She would have walked off with one of the two guaranteed.

Amy Adams and Viola Davis will split the votes and both will lose because of it. This is going to give Taraji P. Henson the win because there's no way Marisa Tomei is getting a second one in the same category unless they really felt her performance was head and feet above the rest.

I'm really happy to see Michael Shannon get the nod for Revolutionary Road. He was awesome in it. Always a creepy guy he is.

Akuma, you're still really holding out for Benjamin Button huh? I don't know whether it's the late opening or just critic backlash. If it's the former it could sneak in the win, but otherwise Slumdog looks like a shoe-in at this point.

I'm going to look at trends in the other awards to see which way the Academy is likely to vote. I'll post them here when I'm done.

You kidding?  Benjamin Button got 13 NOMINATIONS total.  Slumdog got 10.  That is a huge sign right there.  The movie with the most nominations tends to win.  If anything I am more confident.  The most nominations any movie has ever got is 14.  I don't think there is any movie that has gotten 13 nominations and lost. 

Plus I have seen Slumdog, and while it is either my 2nd or 3rd choice for best picture, I don't think it is the year's best film.  Not to mention I thought the main actor's performance was just plain bad at times.  That isn't to say I didn't enjoy the film a lot, I just got sick of that actor.  Notably, he wasn't nominated.

2008 -

There Will Be Blood and No Country for Old Men tied for most with 8.

2007

The Departed had 5.  This year was an exception.

2006

An exception, Crash got it with 6 nominees and Brokeback had 8.  My guess is the controversy around the film contributed.

2005

An exception, Million Dollary Baby got it while The Aviator led.

2004

Lord of the Rings (11) had the most and won.

2003

Chicago (13) had the most and won.  Next runner up, Gangs of New York had 10.

2002

Exception, Beautiful Mind got it while Two Towers had more.  That isn't very surprising though comparing the films.

2001

Gladiator won and had the most.

2000

The numbers of nominations are harder to find, but American Beauty won and it appears to have had the most nominations as well.

1999

Shakespeare in Love had the most and won best picture.

1998

Titanic had the most and won best picture.

So that is 6 out of 10 for the last ten years, which gives Benjamin Button a slight lead.  Notably, Oscar history supports this trend as well.  Benjamin Button's odds are better because it got nominated in so many major categories, the only one in which it didn't was Best Actress.