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Forums - Sales - NPD: Wii software sales are more concentrated on a few titles than 360/PS3

Pyramid Head said:
The problem is as my signature says.

95 percent of wii games are terrible.

The other 5 percent are quite good.

But wii is a system where you could be given a bag of 100 games for it, and all of them are unplayable.

 

Wii is my main console ( i do play a little bit PC, and some DS) and only one i will posess this generation, and i dont even have time to play half the games i want, and there are many i bought i havent finished, so im actually happy, but i do think that 5 procent in your sig is a bit low.

 

 

On topic, well im not suprised thats what good userbase does for you, and another reason why so many developers suffer developing on HD console.



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Yeah, those of us on VGC that look at the sales estimates here AND have been paying attention should've been aware of this for a while now.

The Wii is a toy, folks. A TOY! A great selling, sometimes fun to play TOY! And there's nothing wrong with that. Except . . .

. . . well, reports like this. People are buying it as if it were a toy instead of the GAME system that it is. So what are 3rd party devs supposed to do??? For the first time in the history of consoles, the top selling console does not sell 3rd party games the way that a top selling console should.

What will that mean for the future health of the industry? A perfect storm is brewing . . .



Ail said:
This is why I have been saying all along that the Wii will have trouble matching the number of million sellers of the Xbox360.
The top titles draw a lot of the sales...

 

  i even think that ps3 might be able to catch up to the Wii's milly sellers i even made a thread about it Something to Ponder Wii million sellers vs PS3 milion sellers it's going to be tough to over take the 360 milly sellers



                                                             

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mrstickball said:
noname2200 said:
Ail said:
This is why I have been saying all along that the Wii will have trouble matching the number of million sellers of the Xbox360.
The top titles draw a lot of the sales...

I would agree, except for the second part I alluded to: "What makes this last fact especially puzzling is that we know from the NPD that (at least in the U.S.) the Wii is selling more software, first and third-party, than any other system..."

Which again is part of what confuses me so much; the two pieces of data seem to be contradictory, unless we assume that the Wii is a complete beast when it comes to selling software. Considering the fact that it's "tie-ratio" is fairly high (still above the PS3's) despite moving such massive amounts of hardware, it seems safe to assume that. And yet, how big can that pie actually be?

psrock said:
Reading from this, it sounds like the wii is quite front loaded while they have 400 games fighting for a little bit of the pie. That's not good.

The 360 to me is the most balanced of the 3 systems, and they sell from all aspect.

It looks like the data backs up your first paragraph, and yet we keep seeing (on this site and from publisher's releases) that several Wii games sneak in sales under the radar. So do we then assume that of the remaining 56% of software, a few dozen titles are raking in disproportionate shares of sales as well? Honest question: I don't have the answer yet.

Not completely sure what your second paragraph means, so I'll await further clarification before comment.

mrstickball said:
Not good if the result of this is cannibalization of sales for the lesser-selling titles. That's what it would seem to point to, which is very unhealthy for the leading console.

True, although I would like to point out that the situation is only modestly worse on the Wii than the other systems (13% for the Wii, as opposed to "closer to 20%" for the others). And again, it appears that the Wii pie is larger than the other systems.

Nonetheless, your point is well taken.

 

But look at the numbers again. That 13/80 versus the standard 20/80 means that there's a 65% higher likelihood of your Wii title seeing poorer sales due to canibalization. That 7% difference is huge in the grand scheme of things, because skews data strongly in favor of the Nintendo evergreens and major casual, non-Nintendo successes.

You seem to forget that the Wii's software sales in general are higher than the 360's or PS3's. Above all though, the development costs for the Wii are much lower than on the HD systems.

Developers and publishers on the Wii are doing fine.

 



mrstickball said:
noname2200 said:
mrstickball said:
Not good if the result of this is cannibalization of sales for the lesser-selling titles. That's what it would seem to point to, which is very unhealthy for the leading console.

True, although I would like to point out that the situation is only modestly worse on the Wii than the other systems (13% for the Wii, as opposed to "closer to 20%" for the others). And again, it appears that the Wii pie is larger than the other systems.

Nonetheless, your point is well taken.

But look at the numbers again. That 13/80 versus the standard 20/80 means that there's a 65% higher likelihood of your Wii title seeing poorer sales due to canibalization. That 7% difference is huge in the grand scheme of things, because skews data strongly in favor of the Nintendo evergreens and major casual, non-Nintendo successes.

I'm not actually sure that's how statistics work, Mr.Stickball, but even if they did there's still the second sentence in that paragraph.

As a lesson to myself, in the future I should finish doing research before making a thread...

http://www.gamasutra.com/view/feature/3906/npd_behind_the_numbers_december_.php?page=2

"Nintendo revealed in a recent press release that 132 million units of software were sold for its systems during the year, or just over 49% of all software units sold in 2008. Of that 132 million, we estimate that over 70 million were for the Nintendo Wii...

"Microsoft would have sold...in the neighborhood of 48-49 million units of Xbox 360 software for all of 2008...

"According to software sales figures from Sony, it appears that more than 27 million PS3 software units were sold in 2008."

 

Crunching the numbers, the "have-nots" on the Wii accounted for 14 million units of software. Assuming the 360 and PS3 are actually at an 80/20 split (and it certainly doesn't sound like they are, since it says they are "closer to" rather than "at" that figure) we get 9.6 million for the "have-nots" on the 360, and 5.4 million for the PS3.

It seems that the Wii remains healthier for the outsiders on the Wii, assuming my math is correct. The pie is much, much larger, so having a slightly smaller share still gets you more in the end.



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400+ titles.

i'd say 90% are shovelware not worth buying or shouldn't deserve to sell in the first place.

That leaves 40 games that deserve to sell.

If you look at all the good quality games, they are still low budget, and most of them pick up 500k+ making a decent profit.



Darth Tigris said:
Yeah, those of us on VGC that look at the sales estimates here AND have been paying attention should've been aware of this for a while now.

The Wii is a toy, folks. A TOY! A great selling, sometimes fun to play TOY! And there's nothing wrong with that. Except . . .

. . . well, reports like this. People are buying it as if it were a toy instead of the GAME system that it is. So what are 3rd party devs supposed to do??? For the first time in the history of consoles, the top selling console does not sell 3rd party games the way that a top selling console should.

What will that mean for the future health of the industry? A perfect storm is brewing . . .

This data is very strong support for the "Wii and PS360 are not competing" thread that shows up all the time, honestly.  If the 3rd parties are going to fail by producing gamer games, then they need to produce different kinds of games for the Wii than the HDs, since both appear to have an independant market segment of signifigant magnitude.

The only place the Wii truly "competes" with the HDs, therefore, would likely be in households where both a Wii and a HD console were present, as those people who choose a Wii "over" a PS360 are not even the demographic interested in the PS360 to begin with, apparently.  In other words... the "blue ocean" customers.  And yeah, there are a lot of them.

 



Zucas said:
Well this hasn't been unusual for Nintendo consoles. Nintendo is the only developer in the world that has games that can dominate all others. Great for them but not so great for anyone else. But, it does seem to be getting better as our sales are showing more and more 3rd party games are selling better on the Wii. I mean up til Mario and Sonic at the Olympics on the Wii, the best selling 3rd party game on a Nintendo platform was Street Fighter II. So at least progress but its hard to take down the most powerful developer in the world. The other consoles are lucky to not have that competition.

Mrstickball- yea it's not great for a leading platform but it would be worse for a losing one. Because if it was a smaller userbase then that leaves less to be sold while even if those percentages stay it still leaves a large portion of sales left over for the rest. So I'd bet if that same scenario was for the GC, which it probably was and worse, the situation was probably not as good as it is with Wii.

But it's something that needs to be worked out in the long run, but there isn't ANYTHING Ninty can do about it. Nor should they do anything about it. It's up to the 3rd party developers to try and capitalize and get sales. They have to try to beat out Nintendo. Good luck but its there responsibility. That Ninty is even trying to help them is nothing short of a good grace considering they are their competition. But they are going to have to make "Nintendo level" games as Ubisoft put it to do that. Good luck.

True, but this topic isn't about 1st vs. 3rd party sales, it's about how so few titles (for all the systems) completely dominate. The situation is just more skewed on the Wii than on the other two. Although crunching the numbers (see my last post) it still seems to favor the Wii...

What's REALLY concerning about this situation (for all systems) is that if you don't have a hit, you're not going to sell many titles. In light of that, is it wise to keep gambling with higher development costs? We're seeing more revenue, but not increasing profits. Or, as the NPD itself puts it, "a rising tide isn't lifting all boats."

But I'm drifting a bit off-topic here.

Darth Tigris said:
Yeah, those of us on VGC that look at the sales estimates here AND have been paying attention should've been aware of this for a while now.

The Wii is a toy, folks. A TOY! A great selling, sometimes fun to play TOY! And there's nothing wrong with that. Except . . .

. . . well, reports like this. People are buying it as if it were a toy instead of the GAME system that it is. So what are 3rd party devs supposed to do??? For the first time in the history of consoles, the top selling console does not sell 3rd party games the way that a top selling console should.

What will that mean for the future health of the industry? A perfect storm is brewing . . .

Er...would you care to provide some proof of these assertions? Because this article doesn't seem to be it (check my response to Mr. Stickball.

BHR-3 said:
Ail said:
This is why I have been saying all along that the Wii will have trouble matching the number of million sellers of the Xbox360.
The top titles draw a lot of the sales...

 

  i even think that ps3 might be able to catch up to the Wii's milly sellers i even made a thread about it Something to Ponder Wii million sellers vs PS3 milion sellers it's going to be tough to over take the 360 milly sellers

See my last post as well.



noname2200 said:
mrstickball said:
noname2200 said:
mrstickball said:
Not good if the result of this is cannibalization of sales for the lesser-selling titles. That's what it would seem to point to, which is very unhealthy for the leading console.

True, although I would like to point out that the situation is only modestly worse on the Wii than the other systems (13% for the Wii, as opposed to "closer to 20%" for the others). And again, it appears that the Wii pie is larger than the other systems.

Nonetheless, your point is well taken.

But look at the numbers again. That 13/80 versus the standard 20/80 means that there's a 65% higher likelihood of your Wii title seeing poorer sales due to canibalization. That 7% difference is huge in the grand scheme of things, because skews data strongly in favor of the Nintendo evergreens and major casual, non-Nintendo successes.

I'm not actually sure that's how statistics work, Mr.Stickball, but even if they did there's still the second sentence in that paragraph.

As a lesson to myself, in the future I should finish doing research before making a thread...

http://www.gamasutra.com/view/feature/3906/npd_behind_the_numbers_december_.php?page=2

"Nintendo revealed in a recent press release that 132 million units of software were sold for its systems during the year, or just over 49% of all software units sold in 2008. Of that 132 million, we estimate that over 70 million were for the Nintendo Wii...

"Microsoft would have sold...in the neighborhood of 48-49 million units of Xbox 360 software for all of 2008...

"According to software sales figures from Sony, it appears that more than 27 million PS3 software units were sold in 2008."

 

Crunching the numbers, the "have-nots" on the Wii accounted for 14 million units of software. Assuming the 360 and PS3 are actually at an 80/20 split (and it certainly doesn't sound like they are, since it says they are "closer to" rather than "at" that figure) we get 9.6 million for the "have-nots" on the 360, and 5.4 million for the PS3.

It seems that the Wii remains healthier for the outsiders on the Wii, assuming my math is correct. The pie is much, much larger, so having a slightly smaller share still gets you more in the end.

 

You are leaving out how many games both Sony and MS realeased as well, which i doubt can even reach the amount on the wii.  The lesser amount of games, the bigger amount the games have to share.



 Next Gen 

11/20/09 04:25 makingmusic476 Warning Other (Your avatar is borderline NSFW. Please keep it for as long as possible.)

I see a lot of people looking at the effect without paying much attention to the cause. There's still only one publisher who's heavily invested in the Wii, with Sega and a lot of smaller Japanese publishers just now coming on board.

The sales are concentrated because the investment is concentrated. Nobody comes close to spending as much on Wii development as Nintendo. Are they going to compete, or are they just going to let Nintendo have all the cash?



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