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Forums - Sales Discussion - Pachter's NPD July Estimates (Which Cover July 8 to August 4)

TheSource on 17 August 2007

"PlayStation 3 sales will be higher than Xbox 360's for the month of July, Wedbush Morgan Securities analyst Michael Pachter said today. In a note to investors, Pachter predicted sales of 160,000 PlayStation 3s and 115,000 Xbox 360s when the NPD results are released next week.

Of course, he also predicted sell-through of 330,000 Wii, more than double PlayStation 3. So it wouldn't exactly be a victory. The bump in predicted sales comes from the fact that the PlayStation 3 pricing adjustments hit in July, the drop in Xbox sales from the early negative publicity resulting from the "red ring of death" warranty issue.

Pachter predicts total industry sales of $425 million, up 13.5% from July 2006."

http://blog.wired.com/games/2007/08/wedbush-morgan-.html



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

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Bodhesatva on 17 August 2007

That's considerably below VGChartz' estimation of 180k/370k for the month, but still within acceptable parameters. Anything less than 15% is cool.

I'm going to guess that VGChartz is closer than Pachter is on both the Wii and PS3.



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Viper1 on 17 August 2007

So Pachter has underguestimated all of VGC's numbers. That should do well for VGC then.



The rEVOLution is not being televised

Xyrax on 17 August 2007

This monday is going to be hilarious watching the Sony and MS fans destroy each other arguing once those numbers hit. Good times.



endimion on 17 August 2007

lol well actually I don't see why it should be that important for fanboys.... I mean we are almost certain all those console will sell more or less along their life time and will have enough owners for the dev to work on each of them.... so everybody should be happy at the end.... and even if PS3 is over XB.... it still doesn't put it first or even second yet... so it doesn't really mean anything yet....



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TheSource on 17 August 2007

Well Pacther's numbers are USA guesses only, VGC numbers have Canada and a bit extra since NPD probably undertracks.

Also, the NPD numbers come Thursday...not Monday.

 



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

Viper1 on 18 August 2007

Ah, completely forgot about the Canadian addition to the VGC numbers.



The rEVOLution is not being televised

HappySqurriel on 18 August 2007
Soriku said:
@Xyrax

More arguments when Wii passes 360

No, that's just going to result in the Website comming under attack as the XBox 360 fans from dedicated sites like Team XBox come and troll these forums; 99% of what they will say is "I don't believe these numbers! They are MADE UP!"

 



TheSource on 18 August 2007
Pachter Predicts PS3 Outsold 360 in July

But DS and Wii remain on top

Ahead of the July video game sales data from The NPD Group, which is expected on August 23, Wedbush Morgan Securities analyst Michael Pachter has issued his usual preview report, suggesting U.S. software sales of $425 million, up 12.5% compared to last year's $378 million.

 

 

His overall forecast includes an estimated sell-through of 450,000 DS units, 330,000 Wiis, 115,000 Xbox 360s, 160,000 PS3s, 205,000 PS2s, 225,000 PSPs, and 85,000 GBA units.

 

It should be noted that if Pachter is right, this would be the first time that the PS3 outsells the Xbox 360. "We expect a bump in PS3 hardware and software sales due to the PS3 price cuts. Sony stated that sales of PS3 approximately doubled after the price cut, with sales before the price cut averaging 20,000 units per week," Pachter noted.

 

He added that the recent warranty issue for the 360 likely had a negative impact but that it's only a short-term speed bump in the road for Microsoft: "We have forecast a month-over-month decline for Xbox 360 hardware sales, due to the warranty issue announced in early July. We believe that the announcement may have disrupted sales for a week or so, as consumers struggled with the meaning of the 'three red rings of death' issue. Now that the warranty has been communicated to consumers, the price has been cut, and (it appears) the design flaw that caused the high failure rate has been corrected, we believe sales will rebound."

 

Pachter expects July sales to be driven by new releases such as Activision's Guitar Hero Encore: Rocks the '80s (PS2) and EA's NCAA Football 08 (PS2, PS3, Xbox, 360) along with catalog sales of Activision's Guitar Hero 2 and Nintendo's Wii Play and Mario Party 8.

 

http://biz.gamedaily.com/industry/news/?id=17179



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

dallas on 18 August 2007

Michael Pachter has really gotten into this market more than anybody that i've ever seen. He has postings and statements made and so forth just about every week. He is really the best guru that the business of gaming has for itself. One of the things that I have noticed about pachter is that he likes using microeconomics in his anlysis. Many of the things that he says are justified from him by microeconomics. So for all of those wanna-be pachters out there...study up in ECO102 =)