^^ Yeah? There was so much different consoles back then it's hard to keep track.

sony essentially  did just that and won 2 generations. I dont see your point

I don't think so, unless Sony and Nintendo both quit the industry. As somone pointed out, Sega never won a generation. Next gen, I see Sony back on top, Ninty second and MS third.

Considering this generation has marked the beginning of a truely segmented market, I doubt MSFT will be capable of winning a gen in the near future.  There is clearly a split between casual and hardcore gaming.  Casual gamers have a clear choice of console/franchise and with by rough estimates casual gamers are 40% of the market a hardcore based console has quite a mountain to climb to reach that.  the 360 and PS3 will likely always split the hardcore market relatively closely unless one of them adapts to the market and creates an affordable console that appeals to both consumers in the market.  Novel ideas apeal to casual players and Nintendo has clearly proven that to be true.  I don't see MSFT taking any novel approach to their consoleasidefrom a few niche casual games and network games.  Sony appears to be thinking about it but given their situation who knows if that will ever happen.

If Sony and Nintendo both go under, then Microsoft might be able to win a generation. Until then, the Japanese have this shit on lock.

Sony kinda got handed the crown with the PS1 due to the weakness of their competitors. Again with the PS2 the competitors were even weaker. I don't really see any more brilliance in their actions than Microsoft. They were called geniuses, but I doubt they ever were. Anyone can play the "Throw money around game", and in those generations performance/price really did count for something.

At this point I would have to rank their chances:

1. Nintendo. (By a large margin)
2. Microsoft. (Already have massive research in these fields)
3. Sony.

So I would say that next generation is as good a time as any for Microsoft to take the overall crown. It seems like a long shot, but most likely even if they do win the next generation, it will be remembered as "How Nintendo snatched defeat out of the jaws of victory".

This. 

'Winning' a gen is so ... highschool.  Winners are profitable and successful.  And the fact that Xbox has grown as a brand this gen (even in Japan) and become profitable, MS is automatically a winner this gen.  You see what I did there?  I said A winner, not THE winner.  Check the sig.

offcourse they will the question is when ? :P

I think next generation is a good chance for Microsoft to win a generation. Microsoft quickly took away PS goodies (games, graphics oriented, hardware in general), all that is easily taken care of with money which MS has. But what Nintendo has isn't about money (though they get profits easily doing what they do).

Microsoft is quickly getting Wii goodies too however (Mii-Avatars, casual games, lowest price console, family/friend features and games, nice friendly commercials like the Wii). This is a little harder to buy with money so it isn't going to work this gen just yet but next gen with MS copying both PS and Wii, MS can have a good chance in winning. Also I think both MS and PS is looking at motion control stuff.

Also to think MS can't win a gen ever is weird thinking. MS can hold out much longer than both other companies in any time of turmoil in the world economy. Sony can't afford too many mistakes, Nintendo is too small to hold the burden of many mistakes, MS will just "write-off" xbox mistakes- don't be surprised of another billion dollar warranties next gen.

Unless M$ figures out how to make reliable hardware they will follow the path of SEGA. People simply won't buy unreliable stuff over and over again. 2 gens of crap consoles and it didn't matter how good the Dreamcast was. The same will be true with M$.
That being said, I don't think M$ will make the same errors next gen. Just like sony won't make the same errors.
Final answer is NO. The Japanese companies will always dominate the game industry.