Considering this generation has marked the beginning of a truely segmented market, I doubt MSFT will be capable of winning a gen in the near future. There is clearly a split between casual and hardcore gaming. Casual gamers have a clear choice of console/franchise and with by rough estimates casual gamers are 40% of the market a hardcore based console has quite a mountain to climb to reach that. the 360 and PS3 will likely always split the hardcore market relatively closely unless one of them adapts to the market and creates an affordable console that appeals to both consumers in the market. Novel ideas apeal to casual players and Nintendo has clearly proven that to be true. I don't see MSFT taking any novel approach to their consoleasidefrom a few niche casual games and network games. Sony appears to be thinking about it but given their situation who knows if that will ever happen.
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