I really don't see the 360 possibly being Microsoft's flagship console any longer than 2011 as they'll need to get next gen Gears out by that point which will lead to retirement of the 360 and lots of time for the PS3 to pass the 360 and even make a strike towards the Wii.

Here's an idea, how about we just agree that it won't ever catch it in sales right now, and since we have all agreed on it then we never have to discuss it in a thread topic again, can it be that simple?

Isn't this applied mathematics?

Going "Yippie!" if the PS3 beats the 360 after the next generate XBox system is launched is a hollow. When the lead matters is when the system is viably competing in the marketplace for new customers, so that the base is installed. Outside of that, one is a hardcore fanboy treating it like a game.

Whoopie that the PS3 beats the 360, after the XBox is on the next generation building up to a 10 million console lead in the generation that follows this.

      Yes, but the PS3 will have a 40 million or so lead on the next xbox, and the Wii 2 (not the Wii HD coming out in 2010 which will basically be a Wii SP ie. a Wii with no tech improvements that does have the ability to output HD graphics justifying its keeping the $250.00 price point at that point in time) will not really be any more technically powerful than the PS3, so the PS3 will continue to sale while it is competing with Wii 2 and the Next Box.  It will pass the 360 and have a large lead over 720.  And Sony doesn't  have to bring out PS4 for a long time while it will be in Microsoft's best interest to get their next super system out at a point in time that they have a title like Gears 3 to move it out of the stores. 

Good point. He mentions PS3 sales increasing but not 360 sales decreasing... Holiday sales for 2008 were lower than 2007 for the PS3...

I'd look at it this way:

The likelihood of the Playstation 3 catching up is very, very slim. In order for it to happen, Sony would need to slash the price of the PS3 quickly, and Microsoft would be unresponsive to Sony gaining ground on them. There's a 25% probability (given both have a 50% chance of happening) that the given scenario will play out, and a 50% chance that any one thing will happen.

Right now, I'd say there's a 50% chance of the PS3 beating the X360 in the end for LTD sales. But with every week that passes without a PS3 price drop, reduce that % by 1%.

im amazed to see people thinking there is still hope for the ps3. 0.o
there is nothing i would love more than to see the ps3 turn thing around but sony is not committed to making the ps3 a success they are just going to aim for profitability and wait until this gen is over.

There are too many variables...the 360 has built its lead through releasing first and slashing its price to bits

Right :/