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Forums - Sales - THE GAP - PS3 can't catch the XBOX360 - pure mathematics

Rpruett on 08 April 2009
Cueil said:
Rpruett said:
Black RL said:
@Megadude, your signature says everything.

"Let's agree to disagree with anyone who disagrees with me"

It's pointless to discuss with you. And yes, it's impossible to the PS3 to catch the 360 and the 360 to catch the Wii. It's pure mathematics.

Riddle me this,  What was the PS3/360 gap just before the 360 holiday price cut?    How did it grow this quickly?    Obviously unless the PS3 starts pulling off serious sales it's going to take quite awhile but impossible to catch the 360?  

The PS3 is still tracking higher than the 360.  If the PS3 lasts 10 years and the 360 lasts 10 years (At what has been the current sales trend between the two consoles)  the PS3 will be slightly ahead of the 360 for the generation.

 

It doesn't matter how hight it's tracking comapred to the 360 at the same time in it's life... what matters is that the 360 continues to outsell it on a WW basis by a good margin every week.

 

Given what we've seen from the two thus far,  when Sony decides to cut the price they will be outselling the 360 weekly as well.  The overall trend has been one that has favored Sony.   The only long term issue that Sony may end up facing at some point is the overall diminishment of the effective pool of sales.    As long as the price cut does not take an eternity to arrive,  I believe Sony will keep right on Microsoft.   Thus putting the ball back into Sony's court.   

Also one other thing that should hold true is that this will be the start of the downfall of the 360.  (In sales terms atleast). By 2010,  the 360 can predict to see lower yearly sales than before.  While the PS3 will still have yet to hit it's core price. 

 

The key for Sony IMHO is making sure that they hit the $200/$250/$300  price ranges before a majority of current PS2/Last gen users migrate.

 



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thx1139 on 08 April 2009

Rpruett,

Two things MS not Sony has the upper hand on pricing because the 360 is profitable as a hardware platform and the PS3 is not. Any cut of the PS3 anytime soon is more losses for Sony.

The next generation will arrive before the PS3 will have time to take advantage of the sub $200 price level. The 360 is actually just starting to take advantage of this level.

Lets look at the upcoming years.

First off establish that the first next gen consoles will arrive fall 2012.

My guess is that fall 2009 the prices will be as follows:

360 $150, $250
PS3 $350, $430

fall 2010
360 $130, $200
PS3 $250, $330

fall 2011
360 $100, $180
PS3 $200, $280

fall 2012 - Next gen consoles arrive.



Its libraries that sell systems not a single game.

Tim_Duncan on 08 April 2009
Rpruett said:
Cueil said:
Rpruett said:
Black RL said:
@Megadude, your signature says everything.

"Let's agree to disagree with anyone who disagrees with me"

It's pointless to discuss with you. And yes, it's impossible to the PS3 to catch the 360 and the 360 to catch the Wii. It's pure mathematics.

Riddle me this,  What was the PS3/360 gap just before the 360 holiday price cut?    How did it grow this quickly?    Obviously unless the PS3 starts pulling off serious sales it's going to take quite awhile but impossible to catch the 360?  

The PS3 is still tracking higher than the 360.  If the PS3 lasts 10 years and the 360 lasts 10 years (At what has been the current sales trend between the two consoles)  the PS3 will be slightly ahead of the 360 for the generation.

 

It doesn't matter how hight it's tracking comapred to the 360 at the same time in it's life... what matters is that the 360 continues to outsell it on a WW basis by a good margin every week.

 

Given what we've seen from the two thus far,  when Sony decides to cut the price they will be outselling the 360 weekly as well.  The overall trend has been one that has favored Sony.   The only long term issue that Sony may end up facing at some point is the overall diminishment of the effective pool of sales.    As long as the price cut does not take an eternity to arrive,  I believe Sony will keep right on Microsoft.   Thus putting the ball back into Sony's court.   

Also one other thing that should hold true is that this will be the start of the downfall of the 360.  (In sales terms atleast). By 2010,  the 360 can predict to see lower yearly sales than before.  While the PS3 will still have yet to hit it's core price. 

 

The key for Sony IMHO is making sure that they hit the $200/$250/$300  price ranges before a majority of current PS2/Last gen users migrate.

 


I agree. I think Sony is definitely in control. The PS3 is now the console to own, when you look at the worldwide sales you see sales roughly match 360 sales worldwide, with a twice as high price... Plus, there's basically nothing released anymore on 360 as AA+ exclusives, so unless MS announces something big soon (at E3 ?), the future looks grim for the 360.

Squilliam on 08 April 2009

I thought the gap between the Xbox 360 and PS3 was pure statistics rather than pure mathematics.



Tease.

Slimebeast on 08 April 2009

I perdict that the PS3 will get a price cut in April to $350 and it will crush the X360.

PS3 will probably win 2009 over the X360 in sales. That's my fear.



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twingo on 08 April 2009

Simple logic, by the end of it all Japan alone will do away with 360 current ww advantage. FF13/Versus pretty much guarantee that.

While Gran Turismo will effectively kill the 360 in most European markets especially France Italy Germany and Spain, 360 might limp on with mediocre Uk sales.

A cut would help.



thx1139 on 08 April 2009
twingo said:
Simple logic, by the end of it all Japan alone will do away with 360 current ww advantage. FF13/Versus pretty much guarantee that.

While Gran Turismo will effectively kill the 360 in most European markets especially France Italy Germany and Spain, 360 might limp on with mediocre Uk sales.

A cut would help.

Yeah because all of the 1.5-2 million copies of FF13 in Japan that are sold will be alongside a new PS3.  None of the 3-4 million people in Japan that have a PS3 already will purchase FF13.

This goes for Gran Tourismo all around the world. So wonderful that the PS3 software has this effect on people.

 



Its libraries that sell systems not a single game.

twingo on 08 April 2009
thx1139 said:
twingo said:
Simple logic, by the end of it all Japan alone will do away with 360 current ww advantage. FF13/Versus pretty much guarantee that.

While Gran Turismo will effectively kill the 360 in most European markets especially France Italy Germany and Spain, 360 might limp on with mediocre Uk sales.

A cut would help.

Yeah because all of the 1.5-2 million copies of FF13 in Japan that are sold will be alongside a new PS3.  None of the 3-4 million people in Japan that have a PS3 already will purchase FF13.

This goes for Gran Tourismo all around the world. So wonderful that the PS3 software has this effect on people.

 

 

Look at what FF7 did to the PS.

History repeats it self.

 



thx1139 on 08 April 2009

So everyone that bought FF7 purchased a PS as well with it. Wow that is pretty amazing.



Its libraries that sell systems not a single game.

saicho on 08 April 2009
twingo said:
thx1139 said:
twingo said:
Simple logic, by the end of it all Japan alone will do away with 360 current ww advantage. FF13/Versus pretty much guarantee that.

While Gran Turismo will effectively kill the 360 in most European markets especially France Italy Germany and Spain, 360 might limp on with mediocre Uk sales.

A cut would help.

Yeah because all of the 1.5-2 million copies of FF13 in Japan that are sold will be alongside a new PS3.  None of the 3-4 million people in Japan that have a PS3 already will purchase FF13.

This goes for Gran Tourismo all around the world. So wonderful that the PS3 software has this effect on people.

 

 

Look at what FF7 did to the PS.

History repeats it self.

 

It's this kind of expectation that's gonna disappoint later.

 



MikeB predicts that the PS3 will sell about 140 million units by the end of 2016 and triple the amount of 360s in the long run.