Hello

XBOX360 - 27.550.000 units

PS3 - 19.630.000 units

GAP - 7.920.000 units

Currently XBOX360 is outselling the PS3, but let's pretend that it starts to outsell the XBOX360 by 50.000 units a week.

7.920.000 / 50.000 = 158.4 weeks

If we consider that a year has 53 weeks the PS3 would need:

158.4 / 53 = 2.988679245 years

Would need 3 YEARS to CLOSE THE GAP, just to CLOSE IT. So it will need 2009, 2010 and 2011 just to close the gap. If we see the release date of the XBOX360, 12 of May of 2005, we can easly see that a new system will be introduced in late 2010, 2011 or in the worst scenario beginning of 2012.

This makes impossible for the PS3 to catch the XBOX360. The same is TRUE regarding the Wii and the XBOX360. So I guess we have a winner and a whinner.

A hug to you all.

I can't be bothered to do much mathematics here, but hasn't the 360 outsold the PS3 by around 3.5 million in 4 months? And the gap is 8 million. So if the PS3 gets a big price cut and outsells the 360 by a similar rate, it could catch up in 8-9 months. Not saying it'll happen but nothing is impossible. This whole generation has taught us that.

The 360 was outselling the PS3 2:1 - could a PS3 price cut do that anywhere out of the holiday season?

That's assuming sales remain constant. Any of a price cut, significant new games, or better marketing could change the sales pace either way. VGChartz wouldn't exist if sales were predictable...

It is improbable that PS3 will catch the Xbox 360 or that the Xbox 360 will catch the Wii. Then again, it was improbable in 2006 that Nintendo's console could catch the Xbox 360.

1. A year is 52 weeks.

2. The gap between weekly sales never stays the same, it is perfectly possiblefor the PS3 to pass the X360, lets say 2009 the 360 outsells the PS3 for the first 9 months, racks up a largest gap of about 10 million, then a PS3 price cut brings new lustre to PS3 sales, it catches up in weekly sales, then manages to outsell it during the holidays by say 1 million.

end of 2009 gap = 9 million

By 2010 the X360 is quite old in the eyes of consumers, it starts to slow down quite a bit, sells maybe 7 million even with a further price cut. The PS3, having delayed it's 3rd year on the market being the best due to no price cut, manages to have a 4th year equal or slightly higher than it's second year, so catches up by about 4 million

end of 2010 gap = 5 million

The X360 slows down further in 2011, and MS brings out a new console later in the year, sells 3 million. Sony don't announce a new console till late in the year, due to come out mid 2012, so the PS3, while still slowing down with age, doesn't drop like a stone... sells 7 million.

end of 2011 gap = 1 million.

The new xbox starts taking over in 2012, but some people still look for bargains, x360 sells 1 million. The PS3 does have a successor coming out this year, but it still has the first half of the year to sell well, and sells 5 million.

end of 2012 gap = 3 million in the PS3s favour.... PS3 goes on to sell a further 2-3 million in 2013/14, while the x360 dies in 2013, selling off the rest of it's stock (~500k)

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I am not saying that it is going to happen, or even likely... but it is cetainly possible.

I think the lifetime sales of the two consoles will end around 45-55 million for both of them, I suspect the X360 will remain ahead by a few million, but it is not impossible for the PS3 to pass it.

end of 2011 gap

Probably not. That's why a big price cut would make sense around Q3-4 of this year. Coupled with FF13 in Japan and the possible release of GT 5, a $300 PS3 *may* be able to outsell the 360 2:1. Of course, that depends on whether the 360 gets a price cut of it's own.

Sorry this assumes sales remain constant and consistent over time. It's not like that. I think the 360 is in a great position, but the PS3 could still overtake it as well and within the timeframes required.

The big console sales come in spikes, either due to games or certain times of the year (and also price reductions of course). Timing these right can make a huge difference. 360 was behind PS3 most of the year, then dropped price right for December and got a big boost. PS3 has the same potential (as does 360 too of course).

The simple truth is the 360 has the advantage of the lead and a better price point, while the PS3 probably still has a brand advantage and a better set of potential IP still waiting to be released (GT5, God of War, etc.).

So its far from over, although I think the Wii is looking pretty far ahead in terms of including it in the equation.

We should wait till FFXIII and GT5 to come out. That games could change things. FFXIII would help bringing Japan into relevance, since never sold less than a mln in there. With PS3 at 2.8 mln userbase, I reckon we will see an expansion of this number. I don´t believe that FF will make 50% atach rate for PS3, so to sell >1mln copies, the userbase will have to expand.

My guess is 1mln more PS3 units in Japan plus the usual mln in the year FF comes out. This garantees a +4.5mln userbase in Japan if this happen in 09.

In regards to GT5, I think it will garantee the PS3 a advantage in Others that X360 has in NA, or a reasonably large one, giving the reason to choose a not so expensive(at the time, after expected price cut) PS3 against a cheaper, but not that much, x360.

Plus, apart from what MS PR said, their cicle will end before the PS3 one, and that´s when, if PS3 isn´t already in front, the black machine will finally pass the white one.

The Wii will make 140mln+ and none of the HD will do any close to it. Both HD added will pass Wi by 2%. Nothing the HD machines do will affect wii sales, but nothing Wii does will affect their sales aswell. I reckon they don´t compete as products, although the mother companies do compete each other. Strange, isn´t it?

you can NEVER predict sales CORECTLY. Did anybody expected Wii to outsell 360 and PS3? Did anybody expected 360 sales to catch up PS3 sales in 2008?

This is just another prediction. It ain't over at all.

I think this is really far out. You have to remember that sales are hardly ever so constant. The PS3 could sell more than the 360 by more than 50,000. It has before.