We should wait till FFXIII and GT5 to come out. That games could change things. FFXIII would help bringing Japan into relevance, since never sold less than a mln in there. With PS3 at 2.8 mln userbase, I reckon we will see an expansion of this number. I don´t believe that FF will make 50% atach rate for PS3, so to sell >1mln copies, the userbase will have to expand.
My guess is 1mln more PS3 units in Japan plus the usual mln in the year FF comes out. This garantees a +4.5mln userbase in Japan if this happen in 09.
In regards to GT5, I think it will garantee the PS3 a advantage in Others that X360 has in NA, or a reasonably large one, giving the reason to choose a not so expensive(at the time, after expected price cut) PS3 against a cheaper, but not that much, x360.
Plus, apart from what MS PR said, their cicle will end before the PS3 one, and that´s when, if PS3 isn´t already in front, the black machine will finally pass the white one.
The Wii will make 140mln+ and none of the HD will do any close to it. Both HD added will pass Wi by 2%. Nothing the HD machines do will affect wii sales, but nothing Wii does will affect their sales aswell. I reckon they don´t compete as products, although the mother companies do compete each other. Strange, isn´t it?
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