I realize we have an NPD thread but this question would get lost among the other hundred or so posts.

Unike 2007 where reports were often made of limited Wii supply in December, we heard no such reports for December 2008.   In fact, we continually heard of increased shipments.  I personally (pardon the anecdotes here) have been told by employees at a few retailers that their Wii shipments were higher in December than in November.  Yet NPD suggest December sales are only marginally higher than Novembers.

Now, NPD no longer tracks Wal-Mart or Toys R' Us.  Both retailers are known for their larger percentage of Wii sales over the specialty retailers like Gamestop.   It was reported that Gamestop's market share of video game sales were down this year compared to the big box retailers (like Wal-Mart and Toys R' Us) who saw increases in video game market share sales in December.

NPD now has to rely on historical sales data (as in back when those retailers were reporting their figures to NPD) and extrapolated market share data.   Given that NPD has only had Wii sales data at Toys R' Us when supply was massively limited (2006 and 2007) and has never had sales data on Wii from Wal-Mart (their contract ran out back in 2003 I believe), it is feasible that their extrapolated sales data combined with past market share data coupled with larger shipments than in 2007 that NPD has undertracked the Wii sales for December 2008.

Again I do not present this as conclusive proof itself, only proof of plausibility.

Note that I have not provided VGC's sales data itself for further proof as I do not intend for this thread to become a VGC vs NPD thread.

Anything is possible, of course, and you've presented a scenario in which NPD may have undertracked the Wii. One would think Nintendo's PR would have said something in that case, but it's still plausible.

We'll find out for sure in a few days, I suppose.

Maybe we overtracked them....

I think we will know after Nintendo announces their financial year end numbers

Given that shipments and sales are so closely linked thanks to sell outs, you have a point.

If that does turn out to be the case, NPD may want to renegotiate their former contracts with Wal-Mart and Toys R' Us or else face misrepresenting the industry again and losing face to VGC who suggested sales possibly more in line with actual shipment figures.

i dont think so...

Why would someone undertrack the Wii =P?

Good points Viper, probably true mainly because it's reasonable, anecdotes are never pardoned and always ignored.

Some mod or ioi said that NPD missed some dates compared to VGC. So next month NPD will show that data, have to wait and see those numbers.

Also Nintendo reports are the reality figures (NPD and VGC are just estimations).

This. I'm confused by the numbers as they just don't make sense, with the point you made above, plus some other stuff. So I'm just waiting til the end of this month.

Personally, I would love it if VGChartz was right on the money, and NPD had to come out and publicly make a correction because they were so far off, but I doubt anything like that would happen.

only 2 more weeks, and we'll have a much clearer picture.

probably true but not by one million.