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Forums - Sales - PS3 only has one game in JAN NPD TOP 20. Sign of Trouble ahead?

deathgod33 on 19 January 2009

a ps3 price cut should increase software sales as there would be more ps3 owners obviously.



 

 

 

 

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HappySqurriel on 19 January 2009

Realistically, the PS3 simply has too small of a userbase to put many games at the top of the charts for very long ...

What we have seen so far in this generation is that game sales for a particular system over a particular timeframe are (roughly) proportionate to the size of the system's userbase. When you have 21 Million Wii systems, 16 Million XBox 360 systems, and 7.5 Millon PS3 systems on the market (plus 32 Million DS systems and 15 Million PSP systems) it really doesn't have the game sales to put many games into the top 10/20/100 games over any arbitrary timeframe.



whatever on 19 January 2009

WTF is Link's Crossbow Training doing in the top 20?



Kasz216 on 19 January 2009

To me it sounds like a sign of commonplace...

doesn't always have 0 to 2 games per month?



mike_intellivision on 19 January 2009
noname2200 said:
palancas7 said:
Come on VGC. Too many wrong numbers now.

Normally I think the top 50 on this site are "good enough" for our purposes (I'm growing increasingly skeptical about numbers below a certain threshold, as too many games have too great legs for there to not be something fishy), but I have to agree that at least with December in the U.S., something went wrong. Here's hoping it's just an anamoly.

 

It always amazes me that people take NPD to be the Gospel.

It -- like VGC -- is an estimation. And given the strangeness of the console numbers, I think there may be more "wrong numbers" in NPD than VGC. Estimating Wal-Mart and Toys R Us can be tricky, especially if you are using models from the last generation.

Back to the OP -- limited selling software is not a good thing. The numbers per unit is about the same -- it just the small install base and domination of one title made it difficult for anything to sell.  Such is not good for the long-term prognosis of titles on the PS3. It will mean fewer third party exclusives and maybe even more third party exclusives for the X360 (developers will wonder if they should bother to port over games). It certainly means that the PS3 will rarely be a lead platform for third party development.

 

Mike from Morgantown

Funny how no one seems to be bragging up the Wii for dominating the Top 20 (but some are making excuses)

 

 



      


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noname2200 on 19 January 2009
mike_intellivision said:
noname2200 said:
palancas7 said:
Come on VGC. Too many wrong numbers now.

Normally I think the top 50 on this site are "good enough" for our purposes (I'm growing increasingly skeptical about numbers below a certain threshold, as too many games have too great legs for there to not be something fishy), but I have to agree that at least with December in the U.S., something went wrong. Here's hoping it's just an anamoly.

 

It always amazes me that people take NPD to be the Gospel.

It -- like VGC -- is an estimation. And given the strangeness of the console numbers, I think there may be more "wrong numbers" in NPD than VGC. Estimating Wal-Mart and Toys R Us can be tricky, especially if you are using models from the last generation.

Fully and freely granted, and even the pros can get it wrong on many occasions (see the discrepancies between Famitsu and Media Create numbers, for example). That said, the NPD is far larger than VGChartz, employs several people full-time to get their numbers, has a much larger sample size, and only has to analyze a single market. They can get away with charging massive amounts of money for their data, because people feel it's reliable. By contrast this site, much as I like and appreciate its services, doesn't pretend to be super-accurate.

Add to that the fact that every publisher out there repeatedly cites NPD data in its official press releases, and I'm willing to excuse myself for favoring the NPD over this site.

All that said, the two are usually close enough that I will continue to put some faith in this site's numbers, although I still feel that the numbers for this month are too far off.

 



Kenology on 27 January 2009
Zucas said:

So being as though we know Shaun White 450k in December, GAF member, radcliff, made adjustments/estimates based on the above chart:

Top 20 Games of December 2008

1. WII PLAY W/ REMOTE WII NINTENDO OF AMERICA - 1.46 million
2. CALL OF DUTY: WORLD AT WAR* 360 ACTIVISION BLIZZARD - 1.33 million
3. WII FIT WII NINTENDO OF AMERICA - 999k
4. MARIO KART WII NINTENDO OF AMERICA - 878k
5. GUITAR HERO WORLD TOUR* WII ACTIVISION BLIZZARD - 859k
6. GEARS OF WAR 2* 360 MICROSOFT - 745k
7. LEFT 4 DEAD 360 ELECTRONIC ARTS - 629k
8. MARIO KART NDS NINTENDO OF AMERICA - 540k
9. CALL OF DUTY: WORLD AT WAR PS3 ACTIVISION BLIZZARD - 533k
10. ANIMAL CROSSING: CITY FOLK* WII NINTENDO OF AMERICA - 497k
11. WII MUSIC WII NINTENDO OF AMERICA - 487k
12. NEW SUPER MARIO BROS NDS NINTENDO OF AMERICA - 250k-487k
13. PERSONAL TRAINER: COOKING NDS NINTENDO OF AMERICA - 450k-487k
14. FALLOUT 3* 360 BETHESDA SOFTWORKS - 450k-487k
15. CLUB PENGUIN: ELITE PENGUIN FORCE NDS DISNEY INTERACTIVE STUDIOS - 450k-487k
16. LINK'S CROSSBOW TRAINING WII NINTENDO OF AMERICA - 450k-487k
17. GUITAR HERO WORLD TOUR* PS2 ACTIVISION BLIZZARD - 450k-487k
18. MADDEN NFL 09* 360 ELECTRONIC ARTS - 450k-487k
19. CALL OF DUTY: WORLD AT WAR WII ACTIVISION BLIZZARD - 450k-487k
20. SHAUN WHITE SNOWBOARDING: ROAD TRIP WII UBISOFT - 450k

 It was a tight race between #12 and #20 - given we know Wii Music did 487k for sure.  Not much seperation between those places.

CoD:WaW Wii did really well. 



irstupid on 27 January 2009
WiiStation360 said:
BengaBenga said:
Lurker said:
It's the same every month. PS3 can't sell software in the US at all it seems.

 

This. If you can get only a single game in the December top 20 (most important month in the year) something's wrong. Maybe a lot of people do own it primarily as a BluRay player.

 

According to VGChartz, the PS3 sold software at only a slightly lower ratio than the 360/Wii in December in NA.  The only difference was install base.  There are far cheaper Blu-Ray players out there for people who just want to watch movies. 

Maybe last Christmas people were buying PS3s as Blu-ray player, but not so much today.  The sole reason there are not more PS3 games in the top 20 is that there are 1/2 as many PS3s as 360 in NA, and 1/3 as many as the Wii.

NA Dec Software/ Total Hardware for December:
Wii: 1.35 (1.2 without bundles)
360: 1.31 (1.19 without bundles)
PS3: 1.19 (1.17 without bundles)

 

 

 

Ok then they all have the same attach ratio according to you this december.  Now if your a developer and want to make MONEY, what essentially all companies are trying to do.  What do you do?

 

Easy make it for the Wii.  Cheaper Devolopment costs, and they don't give a shit about ratio.  They want raw numbers not some percentage.  Since Wii has most hardware, if all have same attach rate that means more sales on Wii.  And even though you could say basically 50/50 market share right now so why not just multiplat to HD.  DEVELOPEMENT COSTS say hello.