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Forums - Microsoft - Prediction: Xbox 360 SKU update March/April. (Wireless, HDD size)

Squil, When was the rumored valhalla MB supposed to be coming online?

As I recall, Valhalla was supposed to bring a unified 65nm CPU/GPU chip which would reduce mother board size, cut the cooling system to one heatsink instead of two, reduce heat and hence cooling fan size/speed/noise, and reduce power consumption thereby further reducing size and cost of the power adapter. There would be additional cost savings from a reduction in assembly costs due to less complexity as well...

I don't know the potential cost savings of said valhalla, but I suspect it would be rather strong. This would more than offset the increased cost of including wireless as well as a larger hard drive.

A "slimmer" redesign with a slot load, built-in wifi, larger hard drive, and perhaps multiple colored boxes would be, in my opinion, the smartest move MS could make. That would carry them into the next gen with not much else to cost reduce except for die size on the cpu/gpu.



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Systems I currently own:  360, PS3, Wii, DS Lite (2)
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kn said:

A "slimmer" redesign with a slot load, built-in wifi, larger hard drive, and perhaps multiple colored boxes would be, in my opinion, the smartest move MS could make. That would carry them into the next gen with not much else to cost reduce except for die size on the cpu/gpu.

What is "slot load"?

And how many colors would you suggest, and which ones?

 



One in five broadband users in the US and Europe is hooked up to a wireless network in their home, prompting analysts Strategy Analytics to suggest that Wi-Fi is emerging as a "mass market phenomenon".

The report found that seven per cent of all households now have a wireless network. The US is the leading market with 8.4 per cent penetration, followed by the Nordics with 7.9 per cent.

In the UK penetration rates are at 6.1 per cent and 5.1 per cent in Germany.

When the numbers are crunched to include just broadband users, the survey found that 20 per cent of broadband subscribers across the US and Europe now use Wi-Fi to share their internet connection between PCs and other devices.

"Wi-Fi has become the preferred networking technology for affluent early adopters," analyst David Mercer said. "Rising ownership of laptop PCs and other portable internet devices will make Wi-Fi the dominant home networking choice for most broadband subscribers."

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2006/05/11/wireless_wifi/

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So one in 5 broadband users had wireless in 2006 so the exclusion of wireless in the original design does make sense. Now that its 2009 or 3 years later one would expect that the wireless usage would have increased by at least 50% if not more than doubled.

The real question is when, not if they will include wireless because that functionality is being included in pretty much everything now. The other question is will they add it to the media ready SKUs -> Premium/Elite which make up 50% of the sales for better targetting or will I be partially wrong with them possibly including the Arcade SKU as well.



Tease.

kn said:
Squil, When was the rumored valhalla MB supposed to be coming online?

As I recall, Valhalla was supposed to bring a unified 65nm CPU/GPU chip which would reduce mother board size, cut the cooling system to one heatsink instead of two, reduce heat and hence cooling fan size/speed/noise, and reduce power consumption thereby further reducing size and cost of the power adapter. There would be additional cost savings from a reduction in assembly costs due to less complexity as well...

I don't know the potential cost savings of said valhalla, but I suspect it would be rather strong. This would more than offset the increased cost of including wireless as well as a larger hard drive.

A "slimmer" redesign with a slot load, built-in wifi, larger hard drive, and perhaps multiple colored boxes would be, in my opinion, the smartest move MS could make. That would carry them into the next gen with not much else to cost reduce except for die size on the cpu/gpu.

The console is simply too hot to shrink to a slim SKU on the 65nm node. If they wanted to do it, they might be able to do it on the 55nm node for both CPU and GPU which is an optical shrink from the current 65nm. Depending on the power usage, most likely they need to reach the 40nm node so I would pick 2010 as the year for the slim personally as the net gain from each shrink diminishes with every shrink.

 



Tease.

Squilliam said:
One in five broadband users in the US and Europe is hooked up to a wireless network in their home, prompting analysts Strategy Analytics to suggest that Wi-Fi is emerging as a "mass market phenomenon".

The report found that seven per cent of all households now have a wireless network. The US is the leading market with 8.4 per cent penetration, followed by the Nordics with 7.9 per cent.

In the UK penetration rates are at 6.1 per cent and 5.1 per cent in Germany.

When the numbers are crunched to include just broadband users, the survey found that 20 per cent of broadband subscribers across the US and Europe now use Wi-Fi to share their internet connection between PCs and other devices.

"Wi-Fi has become the preferred networking technology for affluent early adopters," analyst David Mercer said. "Rising ownership of laptop PCs and other portable internet devices will make Wi-Fi the dominant home networking choice for most broadband subscribers."

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2006/05/11/wireless_wifi/

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

So one in 5 broadband users had wireless in 2006 so the exclusion of wireless in the original design does make sense. Now that its 2009 or 3 years later one would expect that the wireless usage would have increased by at least 50% if not more than doubled.

The real question is when, not if they will include wireless because that functionality is being included in pretty much everything now. The other question is will they add it to the media ready SKUs -> Premium/Elite which make up 50% of the sales for better targetting or will I be partially wrong with them possibly including the Arcade SKU as well.

 

I have a wireless network installed in my home with Verizon FiOS. My laptop and others are wirelessly connected; however, my 360 is wired.

Also, whenever I have large downoads or resource instensive streaming on my laptop (which is rare)...I wire my laptop.

Wireless networking is capable of meeting the average joe's internet demands, but I do not think it is suitable or necessary for gaming especially considering how expensive this generation of HD consoles are relative to past generations...added wireless functionality is an added cost, and I like Microsoft's current approach.

For those who want wireless capabilities, they are free to purchase the add on...



I'm not a fanboy, I just try to tip the balance in favor of logic and common sense.

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WI fi would be a nice addtion to the higher sku's



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Microsoft is very happy with the current market dynamics. For the company to change the SKUs there need to be a really good reason.

Remember - every time a SKU is improved, the older SKUs have to be cleared out at a discount, which means revenue loss.

Now to the point: No chance in hell for a wireless upgrade. As others have stated - it is an added cost with very little return in terms of sales. The market have clearly shown for both Wii and 360 that WiFi is not a selling point.

HDD: This will go up. There is very little cost difference between a 60GB and a 120GB and it is top of mind for customers. I think Microsoft will wait for Sony's
moves and will one up them there on the HDD space.

Timing - Since Microsoft is sitting nicely, it will wait to see what Sony does before announcing any SKU changes.

The only exception is going to be the Slim model. Since Microsoft saves money by shrinking the CPU/GPU, power consumption and the rest of the circutry - it will introduce the slim model when it is ready, not waiting for Sony.



Prediction made on 11/1/2008:

Q4 2008: 27M xbox LTD, 20M PS3 LTD . 2009 sales: 11M xbox,  9M PS3

you can get a wireless adaper for $13 on newegg. i would think it costs far less to add it to a console. FYI.



Tease.

I'm am pretty confident Microsoft offers there external wireless adapter for a premium price. Why would they disrupt that model by integrating costs into the 360?

I do not think wireless is one of those got to have features that would compel Microsoft to integrate it into future hardware revisions especially considering it will add to costs. Regardless of how little the costs may seem, costs are costs and customers aren't really an uproar because the feature isn't present.

It really does not provide any financial benefit to the company.

If costumers really think they need wireless connectivity, they can buy the add on.



I'm not a fanboy, I just try to tip the balance in favor of logic and common sense.

kn said:

A "slimmer" redesign with a slot load, built-in wifi, larger hard drive, and perhaps multiple colored boxes would be, in my opinion, the smartest move MS could make. That would carry them into the next gen with not much else to cost reduce except for die size on the cpu/gpu.

 

Smartest move, as in losing MS lots of money when they are finally making a decent profit on the Xbox?

Wifi = $30 or so

slot load = $30-40 or so

A larger hard drive and a slimmer redesign, more money.



We don't provide the 'easy to program for' console that they [developers] want, because 'easy to program for' means that anybody will be able to take advantage of pretty much what the hardware can do, so the question is what do you do for the rest of the nine and half years? It's a learning process. - SCEI president Kaz Hirai

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