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Forums - Website Topics - 1st Prediction league round of 2009 (leaders will be reset for this round)

The first round is Weekly Japan Chart, 10th January 2009. The Prediction League Top Earners thread will have the main post reset, so those entering this upcoming round could potentially start off 09 right at the top. There will still be cumulative totals, but they won't be displayed in the main post.

Also, I am going to replace the top 20 most active, with a summation of positions in the 3 categories, so even if you aren't #1 in any 1 given category, you can come out #1 overall.

So join now before you get left in the dust

(round closes around 7AM EST Wednesday 01/07/09)




If you drop a PS3 right on top of a Wii, it would definitely defeat it. Not so sure about the Xbox360. - mancandy
In the past we played games. In the future we watch games. - Forest-Spirit
11/03/09 Desposit: Mod Bribery (RolStoppable)  vg$ 500.00
06/03/09 Purchase: Moderator Privilege  vg$ -50,000.00

Nordlead Jr. Photo/Video Gallery!!! (Video Added 4/19/10)

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Woo! more chance for me to fail.

Can I ask for tips? When is Japans biggest week, I know its different to NA and Others.

 

EDIT

"As a note, the week ending Jan 4, is historically the biggest week of the holiday season for Japan, so good luck guessing how everything will do the week after"

I should read before I post.

 



 

seece said:

Woo! more chance for me to fail.

Can I ask for tips? When is Japans biggest week, I know its different to NA and Others.

 

EDIT

"As a note, the week ending Jan 4, is historically the biggest week of the holiday season for Japan, so good luck guessing how everything will do the week after"

I should read before I post.

 

 

yes you should I try to provide a little usefull information with each round in the notes, but it seems no one ever reads them

Anyways, I suggest looking at past/similar game titles (1-2 is typically good enough) for trends (does it sustain long sales, or drop off fast). Look at hardware for the last 2 months, and then compare it to the previous year. Looking at the previous year lets you know which general direction things are going. Looking at the last 2 months allows you to see if you are performing similar to the last year, and if you are generally higher/lower too.

Last but not least, don't let fanboyism get the best of you. Just because DMeisterJ says LBP will be HUGE a couple thousand times, does not mean it will sell even 300k in its first week in any 1 region

EDIT: also, if you enter enough rounds, you'll adventually figure out how to make good bets. If you want to make lots of VG$, you need to bet a lot on what everyone else got wrong. However, if you are wrong, then you could lose a lot too.




If you drop a PS3 right on top of a Wii, it would definitely defeat it. Not so sure about the Xbox360. - mancandy
In the past we played games. In the future we watch games. - Forest-Spirit
11/03/09 Desposit: Mod Bribery (RolStoppable)  vg$ 500.00
06/03/09 Purchase: Moderator Privilege  vg$ -50,000.00

Nordlead Jr. Photo/Video Gallery!!! (Video Added 4/19/10)

nordlead said:
seece said:

Woo! more chance for me to fail.

Can I ask for tips? When is Japans biggest week, I know its different to NA and Others.

 

EDIT

"As a note, the week ending Jan 4, is historically the biggest week of the holiday season for Japan, so good luck guessing how everything will do the week after"

I should read before I post.

 

 

yes you should I try to provide a little usefull information with each round in the notes, but it seems no one ever reads them

Anyways, I suggest looking at past/similar game titles (1-2 is typically good enough) for trends (does it sustain long sales, or drop off fast). Look at hardware for the last 2 months, and then compare it to the previous year. Looking at the previous year lets you know which general direction things are going. Looking at the last 2 months allows you to see if you are performing similar to the last year, and if you are generally higher/lower too.

Last but not least, don't let fanboyism get the best of you. Just because DMeisterJ says LBP will be HUGE a couple thousand times, does not mean it will sell even 300k in its first week in any 1 region :-(

EDIT: also, if you enter enough rounds, you'll adventually figure out how to make good bets. If you want to make lots of VG$, you need to bet a lot on what everyone else got wrong. However, if you are wrong, then you could lose a lot too.

 

Bolded = LOL

Thanks for the tips! I entered the round before seeing your post :( I look forward to entering more rounds with those tips though.



 

I read the hint for the round, and I like my predictions. I'll try to stay active in this, unlike last year, I just abandoned it after the second week.



                                   

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bumping for zexen




If you drop a PS3 right on top of a Wii, it would definitely defeat it. Not so sure about the Xbox360. - mancandy
In the past we played games. In the future we watch games. - Forest-Spirit
11/03/09 Desposit: Mod Bribery (RolStoppable)  vg$ 500.00
06/03/09 Purchase: Moderator Privilege  vg$ -50,000.00

Nordlead Jr. Photo/Video Gallery!!! (Video Added 4/19/10)

Thanks. Can you give me a few tips for this? I want to start betting

Anyway, I need to remember to bet this round, since I can bet as much as you, I have a chance to get the top position. Though lately I've been seeing that lately the overall accuracy is closer to the expected than before, so making good bets is getting more and more difficult for me.

I guess you will create a new thread to post all the tables, or will you keep the old one?




same thread, new info. I'll still retain all links to the complete results too.

 

EDIT: bet VG$1000 on 1m Wii units, I heard that Japan just went crazy for the Wii since Monster Hunter 3, DQX, and FFXIII are all going to Wii in Spring 09




If you drop a PS3 right on top of a Wii, it would definitely defeat it. Not so sure about the Xbox360. - mancandy
In the past we played games. In the future we watch games. - Forest-Spirit
11/03/09 Desposit: Mod Bribery (RolStoppable)  vg$ 500.00
06/03/09 Purchase: Moderator Privilege  vg$ -50,000.00

Nordlead Jr. Photo/Video Gallery!!! (Video Added 4/19/10)

I will never appear in the top 20 most active users then, my accuracy is always bad.



MANUELF said:
I will never appear in the top 20 most active users then, my accuracy is always bad.

The table replacing the 20 most active will include everyone, since we only ever hit ~130 users in more than 5 games. Since I can make multiple columns with that table, I can include everyone rather easily.




If you drop a PS3 right on top of a Wii, it would definitely defeat it. Not so sure about the Xbox360. - mancandy
In the past we played games. In the future we watch games. - Forest-Spirit
11/03/09 Desposit: Mod Bribery (RolStoppable)  vg$ 500.00
06/03/09 Purchase: Moderator Privilege  vg$ -50,000.00

Nordlead Jr. Photo/Video Gallery!!! (Video Added 4/19/10)