Q1 has some promising titles for wii from third partys, but how much well they sell seeing as many fo them are for 'hardcore'  gamers. Im going to make some estimates, not of what they will sell but how much they need to sell lifetime in order to be considered a success. of course all these could drastically change depending on game quality and marketing.  please feel free to tell me if if you think im horribly wrong.

House of the dead: overkill - 1 million ( the remakes  sold 880,000 so this new one should sell more)

sonic and the black knight - 1 million  ( sonic is a popular brand on wii. however i dont think it will sell as well as sonic and the secret rings since that title was heavily bundled by retailers)

madworld - 450k (will proably sell in line with NMH but will benefit from better sales in japan and hopfully more marketing)

deadly creatures- 250k (new and unusual IP,that isnt very hyped so i think wot reach this target)

tenchu IV- 150k (a franchise that had gone into decline, following a poor performance in japan i dont have high expectations for it in the west)

little king story- 300k   ( cute new IP with a casual appeal similar to de blob, however it wont have as good legs as it release far from the holiday season

rune factory frontier 100k ( MMV expects 55k in japan and i expect s similar number from USA and others)

Onechanbara Bikini Zombie Slayers - 100k ( unusual game that i dont expect to be advertised)

Do you mean those numbers for life to death or in 2009 or?
What about The Conduit?
I never knew Sonic and the Secret Rings was bundled :o

i meant for life to death, and the conduit is a Q2 game

sonic and the secret rings wasnt officially bundled but even this holiday stores like game, gamestation and zavvi(RIP) offered you a wii with wii sports and a choice of red steel, twilight princess or sonic and the secret rings

I hope The Conduit sales 8 million. That would just be, well, you know--

what about Fatal Frame 4 and Dead Rising? They also are games dated for februery, at least in Europe.

FF4: I have no idea of how well/bad is going to do this. I really hope it reaches a million. (Maybe Japan(100k) + America(500k) + Europe(400k) )

Dead Rising: It will sell more or less like RE4, about 1.5M.

I think HotD: Overkill will sell more, I mean HotD 2&3 is at 0.88 now and it will eventually hit 1mil. Also think Sonic and Madworld(something like a million) will sell more. I don't have anything to say about others.

fatal frame IV is not 100% definately coming Q1 since all we have is an advert in the UK. we dont know if itll go to USA and it might be first party

for dead rising capcom expects 500k

Do you really think that The Conduit is going to reach 8 millions?? We still know nothing about the quality of the game (they are working hard on graphics but we still haven't seen the final result). I mean, (hope I am wrong) the Conduit is one of the most overhyped games I've ever seen, be careful if not follows the same path than Haze....

I think your estimates about success/no success are quite good, the only one I have to disagree with is Sonic. Secret Rings sold more than two million and Unleashed will break the million easily too, so I'd say everything below 1.5 million would be failure. I expect it to reach that number though, Sonic games are quite close to Nintendo's first party offerings in terms of gameplay and style, so this will appeal to the Wii's audience.

I don't think The Conduit will sell that well. I'm predicting 1.5-2 million for it. 8 million is too high imo.