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Forums - Sales - Unpopular predictions for Sony's 2009

BengaBenga said:
Lale said:
BengaBenga said:

That doesn't really matter, that was always the case. Sony's figures are in Yen and most of the revenue is in dollars. Hence a higher Yen means that the same amount of income in dollars will be a lower amount of income in Yen.

For example the most expensive part of running a business are the employees. Most of those are paid in Yen.

 

 

 But if the hardware components are bought with the revenue Dollars, and the labor people at the factories in China are paid in yuan (or whatever the currency is there) or Dollars, then not only the revenue shrinks due to high yen but also the expenses do.

 

You're seeing it wrong. The expenses in dollar countries stay the same, since most revenue is from dollars. The expenses in Yuan might be a little smaller, but that's peanuts compared to the real issue.

It's like this: Revenue-Expenses=Profit
Expenses stay more or less the same, sure maybe some Chinese labour is cheaper, but all Japanese people (much more) are relative to the main currecy of income more expensive.

The real issue (again) is the revenue in dollars. Let's say a $400 PS3 was worth Y1000 and now Y800 (completely fictional values, but the difference is more or less 20%), you can see that for millions of dollars the amount of difference becomes pretty big. Add to that that Sony is (in)Famous for its low margins and a high Yen can mean the difference between profit and loss.

 

 

 Yes, but the Y800 worth PS3 now also costs only Y800 to manufacture since the Japanese are Sony is offering the strong Yen for the components (Taiwanese mostly) and to the workers in China.

Well, perhaps not Y800, but the cost reduction from a strong yen perspectice must be significant since the PS3 ain't built in Japan (perhaps a very few components are Japanese, not sure).



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Lale said:

 

 Yes, but the Y800 worth PS3 now also costs only Y800 to manufacture since the Japanese are Sony is offering the strong Yen for the components (Taiwanese mostly) and to the workers in China.

Well, perhaps not Y800, but the cost reduction from a strong yen perspectice must be significant since the PS3 ain't built in Japan (perhaps a very few components are Japanese, not sure).

 

Even when you take this factor into account, it's still going to cost Sony billions of dollars throughout the company. The gaming division alone with a 5% change in Yen valuation change caused an estimated $300 million loss. Now imagine what another 10% will do. Combine that with the underperformance of the PSP and falling PS2 sales.



FishyJoe said:
Lale said:

 

 Yes, but the Y800 worth PS3 now also costs only Y800 to manufacture since the Japanese are Sony is offering the strong Yen for the components (Taiwanese mostly) and to the workers in China.

Well, perhaps not Y800, but the cost reduction from a strong yen perspectice must be significant since the PS3 ain't built in Japan (perhaps a very few components are Japanese, not sure).

 

Even when you take this factor into account, it's still going to cost Sony billions of dollars throughout the company. The gaming division alone with a 5% change in Yen valuation change caused an estimated $300 million loss. Now imagine what another 10% will do. Combine that with the underperformance of the PSP and falling PS2 sales.

Hmm... a measly 5% currency change really caused a $300 million loss for the Gaming division alone? I have a hard time grasping that. In what time span, a Fiscal year?

 



Lale said:
FishyJoe said:
Lale said:

 

 Yes, but the Y800 worth PS3 now also costs only Y800 to manufacture since the Japanese are Sony is offering the strong Yen for the components (Taiwanese mostly) and to the workers in China.

Well, perhaps not Y800, but the cost reduction from a strong yen perspectice must be significant since the PS3 ain't built in Japan (perhaps a very few components are Japanese, not sure).

 

Even when you take this factor into account, it's still going to cost Sony billions of dollars throughout the company. The gaming division alone with a 5% change in Yen valuation change caused an estimated $300 million loss. Now imagine what another 10% will do. Combine that with the underperformance of the PSP and falling PS2 sales.

Hmm... a measly 5% currency change really caused a $300 million loss for the Gaming division alone? I have a hard time grasping that. In what time span, a Fiscal year?

 

Did you read this link yet?

It's not 5% by the way, nearer to 20%.

 



My Mario Kart Wii friend code: 2707-1866-0957

Lale said:

Hmm... a measly 5% currency change really caused a $300 million loss for the Gaming division alone? I have a hard time grasping that. In what time span, a Fiscal year?

 

 

http://www.sony.net/SonyInfo/IR/financial/fr/08revision_sony.pdf

http://www.sony.net/SonyInfo/IR/financial/fr/08revision_sonypre.pdf



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NJ5 said:
Lale said:
FishyJoe said:
Lale said:

 

 Yes, but the Y800 worth PS3 now also costs only Y800 to manufacture since the Japanese are Sony is offering the strong Yen for the components (Taiwanese mostly) and to the workers in China.

Well, perhaps not Y800, but the cost reduction from a strong yen perspectice must be significant since the PS3 ain't built in Japan (perhaps a very few components are Japanese, not sure).

 

Even when you take this factor into account, it's still going to cost Sony billions of dollars throughout the company. The gaming division alone with a 5% change in Yen valuation change caused an estimated $300 million loss. Now imagine what another 10% will do. Combine that with the underperformance of the PSP and falling PS2 sales.

Hmm... a measly 5% currency change really caused a $300 million loss for the Gaming division alone? I have a hard time grasping that. In what time span, a Fiscal year?

 

Did you read this link yet?

It's not 5% by the way, nearer to 20%.

 

"As far as Game is concerned, while euro has a major impact on Game business, I would say 30 billion yen impact because of the exchange rate change"

So, he says if the yen gets stronger to Euro by a 140/120 ratio the Gaming division will lose 30 billion yen = $300 million, is that correct? Wow. But in what time span... a whole Fiscal year?

 



Lale said:

"As far as Game is concerned, while euro has a major impact on Game business, I would say 30 billion yen impact because of the exchange rate change"

So, he says if the yen gets stronger to Euro by a 140/120 ratio the Gaming division will lose 30 billion yen = $300 million, is that correct? Wow. But in what time span... a whole Fiscal year?

 

I think they were talking about a whole fiscal year in that excerpt.

EDIT - Oops, I mean the impact on the current fiscal year. The time span of the currency problems is just for the last half as FishyJoe said.

 



My Mario Kart Wii friend code: 2707-1866-0957

Lale said:

"As far as Game is concerned, while euro has a major impact on Game business, I would say 30 billion yen impact because of the exchange rate change"

So, he says if the yen gets stronger to Euro by a 140/120 ratio the Gaming division will lose 30 billion yen = $300 million, is that correct? Wow. But in what time span... a whole Fiscal year?

 

 

The second half of the fiscal year, Oct 08 - Mar 09. However the currency situation has gotten considerably worse since this announcement.



Ok, thanks guys. I'm convinced - changes in exchange rates make a huge inpact on profits for Sony.

Those numbers ($300 mill of which probably >$200 mill is for the Holiday quarter) alone erased the profits from Holidays 2007. Add then the even worse exchange rate than in the forecast and it's a loss.



Billions dollar loss for the entire company in the holiday quarter ? Dunno but if true it is an hard hit to Sony.
We'll see soon enough.



 “In the entertainment business, there are only heaven and hell, and nothing in between and as soon as our customers bore of our products, we will crash.”  Hiroshi Yamauchi

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