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Forums - Gaming - Dragon Qust 10: The Snowball Effect

PS360 is doomed.... HOLY SHIT!


No seriously... this news isn't impressing anyone because everyone know the Wii would soon start to get huge 3rd party titles..... This doesn't mean that 60% of 3rd party support will shift to the Wii.....



4 ≈ One

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Many point to the argument that developers for sports games and shooters want more horsepower because their niche audience wants to see prettier graphics, etc. on those types of games. Something else to consider, however, is that some games simply can't be made right now for the Wii due to processing power not being able to keep up with the Artificial Intelligence that some games require and that the HD consoles can provide. A lot of horsepower goes into AI in some current-generation games (e.g. CoD) and the Wii simply can't provide it. I realize this is just an ancillary argument to why DQX isn't an HD killer but I thought that it might deserve at least a little thought.

Also, the original post was just silly. Sure it will make a difference but it's not an HD killer by any stretch.

EDIT: I realize my argument about horsepower and AI doesn't make sense since they're developing CoD games for the Wii with scaled down graphics and AI and people don't really seem to notice or care that the AI is inferior.  My bad!



Dgc1808 said:
PS360 is doomed.... HOLY SHIT!


No seriously... this news isn't impressing anyone because everyone know the Wii would soon start to get huge 3rd party titles..... This doesn't mean that 60% of 3rd party support will shift to the Wii.....

That's only because the operative word here is in the future tense, if you get my meaning.



Aiemond said:
Words Of Wisdom said:
Aiemond said:
You all saying how great western gaming has become has forgotten one important thing: the model cannot be sustained. You know, you can throw the best party in the world, but if you don't have any money after it, then you sure as hell won't be throwing another one. This is the situation the western development teams have fallen into. They have huge big budget games with unparalleled graphics. This is the big party. Now, to make the money back, our party thrower makes a fee to enter. His first party is great; everyone loves it. He makes money off it. He then goes and throws another party, and another, but this time he may spend as much, but not as many people are coming. Other people are throwing big parties, and those guests are splitting themselves between them. Our friendly party thrower has no more money to throw parties.

So, my question: why are so many western studios doing big cuts? The secret is one big failure is enough to cause an immense amount of damage finanically. And, one big game cannot save it. Look at Rockstar/Taketwo. They sold 10m copies of GTA IV. How much did they make this year total? Not even 200 million. And every other quarter they lose millions. This is common in the western industry. It has become a model of high risk/low reward. Any one with sense avoids these types of investments like the plague. The problem is, the companies are not run by business minds. Who runs take two? Developers.

The reality is western studios will continue to make these games because they cannot adapt and do anything else. They have no real model that can help them turn around their companies. And these developers will continue to lose their jobs and these companies will continue to thunder to the ground, to the amazement of HD fanboys. The question is: can these developers pick themselves up from the ashes? Because Japan is not going to hire them. And banks are not gonna fund new studios for them unless they have a REAL plan, one that projects profits.

So, yes, alot of western games are of very high quality now. But, at what price? Let them win their awards, let them oh and ah over the high budgets and pretty graphics on the game review sites. The prodigal son is squandering his fortune. But this time, he will not be welcomed back.

You know... it's pathetic how many people think of "Western developers" and "Eastern developers" as entities unto themselves. They're really not. When you have companies as different from one another as Bioware, Valve, Blizzard, and the Bethesda that each handle their games very differently, you'd think people would realize that they don't all act the same.

Some companies adapt quickly (EA), some adapt slowly (Take-Two), and some just weather the storm casually glancing down at the peasants around their feet (Valve/Blizzard). Meanwhile companies like Konami have been taking hits financially and SE has had to reverse its flagship title from exclusive to multiplatform to survive the times.

It's not a factor of where the company is located or what race of people run it, it's just a matter of some having foresight and covering their butts... and some not.

 

Khuutra said:
Words Of Wisdom said:

We were saying that in 2007.

Games aren't made overnight, what we'll see this year will be the fruits of the past couple years however whatever we see won't be the result of DQX's announcement. It will be the result of plans set in motion back in 2007 or 2008.

I - look, I know. Dragon Quest X isn't going to immediately affect things. I'm saying that Dragon Quest stands as proof that the storm has started in the Wii's favor. It is not a catalyst, it is a result.

I am pretty sure we are in agreement.

Mhm.

 

The similarities are in the business plans and how they are adapting. The fact is, the western developers are clumped together because generally they are acting the same. They make a bunch of big budget HD games, lose money, make some shitty wii games and complain they don't sell (or make total shovelware that forum goers complain about), and are totally and utterly unable to read the userbase of the wii. They then win an award and get praised by game "journalists" (who are more biased and have less investigative skills than fox news) and think all is ok. Thier models are the same, even if the games they make are different. Its a high risk/low reward strategy. These cannot work.

 

Now, for eastern developers, many of them are seeing the light significantly quicker. SE has DQ X and FFCC, Capcom is reevaluating alot of their wii titles to add additional resources, Sega is changing to mostly wii development, Konami is prolly going to put suikoden on the wii and a new CV game. Also, it has DS games to help make profits (something most of the western ones do not).

 

The eastern businesses are run by japenese business men, so they can make quicker changes and can read market trends better. Now, I'm not saying everyone needs to be a business man. Kojima is not one, and does not need to be. But, the people that are green lighting his projects need to be. Western companies are run by gamers that became developers. They have no business sense, they think internet wisdom dictates the direction they go, and they let thier pride delude them into having to make an HD game not matter the cost. Look, Jaffe, a respected and talented developer was able to cuss and throw "fuck" around in his blog talking about how awesome GoW3 looked. What other industry allows this public outburst? Hollywood and sports. Here is a problem: The game industry is neither. The western developers need to get out of the "too many scientists, not enough hunchbacks" scenario and get some real business models made.

 

And, for Blizzard and Valve, valve has a sucsessful platform in steam that provides a large amount of revenue (and profit I bet) and sells PC games. Blizzard always makes a good game and does not glut with thier titles. They also, more importantly, have the most successful MMO since everquest. This alone keeps them up.

 

 well written, I think all hd fanboys are in denial when it comes to what the Wii is becoming. Or maybe they think if they ignore the Wii enough it will go away.

Also, Kojami seems to have seen the Wii light too, I have heard is working on 1-2 wii exclusives, which makes sense seeing konami has stated recently they are investing in the Wii more.



End of 2009 Predictions (Set, January 1st 2009)

Wii- 72 million   3rd Year Peak, better slate of releases

360- 37 million   Should trend down slightly after 3rd year peak

PS3- 29 million  Sales should pick up next year, 3rd year peak and price cut

@bigjon its probably only "well written" to you because he agrees with your view point.

Theres far too much internet speculation and second guessing in this thread. Obviously the smarty pants people here know why the Wii hasn't recieved the games they want and the publishers are just idiots.



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Squilliam said:
@bigjon its probably only "well written" to you because he agrees with your view point.

Theres far too much internet speculation and second guessing in this thread. Obviously the smarty pants people here know why the Wii hasn't recieved the games they want and the publishers are just idiots.

 

 It was well written, I just would not have complemented him if I disagreed.

Not too many will deny that the Wii "hasn't" recieved as many core games as we'd like, especial Q3 and 4 2008. But the point of this thread is WILL recieve. And I too believe that the DQX is just the beginning of more. His point in this thread is that, DQX should be a red flag to all HD fanboys, but many of them and just trying to make DQX a non factor. I liken it to FFVII moving to the PSX, Nintendo is going to push this game on the west, and I am willing to bet there were people who thought Pokemon, Zelda, DK, and whatnot would not sell in the west, but Nintendo has succeeded there. I think DQX will outsell ALL other DQX games in the west combined (not saying as much as it sounds... like 1.5-2 mil) and will completely legimize the Wii in the East. Remember the SNES? Nintendo won in the US, but it was not a huge blowout, and in fact I think the Genesis egded it in the others, but look back, The SNES had ALL of the Japanese Support, and Wii is beginning to look the same.

I do not think the Wii will become the console of choice of most core gamers in the west (I do believe it will in the east), but I think it will become legitmate to them, and many of them will end up getting one because of the support it will recieve. But, I think it will always be a 2nd console to many core gamers in the west.



End of 2009 Predictions (Set, January 1st 2009)

Wii- 72 million   3rd Year Peak, better slate of releases

360- 37 million   Should trend down slightly after 3rd year peak

PS3- 29 million  Sales should pick up next year, 3rd year peak and price cut

Words Of Wisdom said:

You know... it's pathetic how many people think of "Western developers" and "Eastern developers" as entities unto themselves.  They're really not.  When you have companies as different from one another as Bioware, Valve, Blizzard, and the Bethesda that each handle their games very differently, you'd think people would realize that they don't all act the same.

Some companies adapt quickly (EA), What are you smoking, adapting to what, losing 400 million dollars by quarter? I don't call that adaptation, I call that financial suicide. They may have changed model, it doesn't mean the new one work.

some adapt slowly (Take-Two), Or at all

and some just weather the storm casually glancing down at the peasants around their feet (Valve/Blizzard). That I agree, funny how both of them are PC oriented company, same for EPIC. Actually all the company who are mainly PC developer are doing really well. Hmm I wonder why:)

Meanwhile companies like Konami have been taking hits financially Err, they made more money in 2008 than 2007 and just a little less than 2006 where they made almost 200 million. So much for financial hit. I suggest you look at the hard number, not at fanboy article straight out of Kotaku(sp?)

and SE has had to reverse its flagship title from exclusive to multiplatform to survive the times. To survive the time? They are still profitable during the time they are making FF, so even if it flop, hell don't sell at all, they won't die because of it they would just lose profit. Square learned it's lesson with The Spirit Within.

It's not a factor of where the company is located or what race of people run it, it's just a matter of some having foresight and covering their butts... and some not.

Funny how all the japanese company you could think of "doing badly" are still profitable yet the western one mentionned are on course for bankruptcy. That is the real problem, japenese company sacrified market share for profitabilty, while the western one are doing the opposite, the problem is oblivious, not matter how much market share you have it won't change the fact that when you go under you find yourself with nothing.

 

 

 

 

 



Persons without argument hide behind their opinion

Squilliam said:
@bigjon its probably only "well written" to you because he agrees with your view point.

Theres far too much internet speculation and second guessing in this thread. Obviously the smarty pants people here know why the Wii hasn't recieved the games they want and the publishers are just idiots.

But

But I have the games I want



Well DQ X only confirms that Japanese devs fully support the Wii and this is the most important console for them, already we see big franchises moving to that console: MH, Tales and the others will follow.

@Squillam, of course Wii will get the most talented 3rd party teams, maybe not from western Devs , but definately from Japanese creators since Wii will be the place of their flagship titles i dont think they would shoot themselves in the foot by putting less profilic team to tales of 10 then to the tales of vesperia.


Well the future of big western 3rd party support for the Wii is still uncertain, the Japanese was confirmed by DQ X Wii



bigjon said:
Squilliam said:
@bigjon its probably only "well written" to you because he agrees with your view point.

Theres far too much internet speculation and second guessing in this thread. Obviously the smarty pants people here know why the Wii hasn't recieved the games they want and the publishers are just idiots.

 

 It was well written, I just would not have complemented him if I disagreed.

Not too many will deny that the Wii "hasn't" recieved as many core games as we'd like, especial Q3 and 4 2008. But the point of this thread is WILL recieve. And I too believe that the DQX is just the beginning of more. His point in this thread is that, DQX should be a red flag to all HD fanboys, but many of them and just trying to make DQX a non factor. I liken it to FFVII moving to the PSX, Nintendo is going to push this game on the west, and I am willing to bet there were people who thought Pokemon, Zelda, DK, and whatnot would not sell in the west, but Nintendo has succeeded there. I think DQX will outsell ALL other DQX games in the west combined (not saying as much as it sounds... like 1.5-2 mil) and will completely legimize the Wii in the East. Remember the SNES? Nintendo won in the US, but it was not a huge blowout, and in fact I think the Genesis egded it in the others, but look back, The SNES had ALL of the Japanese Support, and Wii is beginning to look the same.

I do not think the Wii will become the console of choice of most core gamers in the west (I do believe it will in the east), but I think it will become legitmate to them, and many of them will end up getting one because of the support it will recieve. But, I think it will always be a 2nd console to many core gamers in the west.

You've got cause and effect backwards. The Wii is getting DQ as an effect of it's dominance in Japan, this isn't going to cause them to substantially improve the situation there when the writing is already on the wall. FFVII was a major cause of the shift away from Nintendo towards Sony when the race could go either way. Money-hat of the century really IMO.

DQ as a game is not going to compromise its' core values which are somewhat incompatible with the west when compared to other I.Ps like pokemon. There the game was considered valuable wherever it released. The market is in Japan and thats where they will focus. If it turns out that it does well in the west following that model then GREAT! 

Furthermore publishers are so conservative they will likely not act upon the news of this games format until they get hard sales data in hand which is likely too late to effect a change on the development principles of these companies. It will be other games like Shaun White which are already released which will effect games currently in and/or going into production shortly.

Lastly, really the whole "Core"/"Casual" divide is intellectually dishonest and misleading. Gamers just want to have fun really, and we do better to ignore the very idea that one group of people will like or dislike a certain game depending on which group they fall into. Perhaps if we ourselves get out of this bad habit the Publishers could too because ideally all genres of all games should have excellent representations on all viable consoles. My favourite games last generation was Need for Speed: Underground and Civilization III/IV. One makes me core and the other makes me casual? Bah! Nintendo just makes games fun for everyone and it pays.

 



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