NJ5,

Being that there have been endless lists of PS3 exclusives that were supposed to lead to PS3 domination, and domination keeps being delayed, what makes you think that those 20 exclusives will matter at all?

Baghdad Bob!  Hahaha.  Boy was he good for a laugh.  And what an awesome comparison.

Crazzy I think you need to keep your predictions more consistant.

In this thread you keep saying the PS3 will average 20 million over the next 4 years, people call you out on that and you repeat the word average and say that for 2009 the PS3 might not reach 20 million and will have 14-16 million.

In another thread you have predicted that by the end of 2009 the PS3 will be at: "PS3: 42-45 mln"

So I am confused, you seem to have 2 very different predictions about how 2009 will pan out.

One see you predicting a rather optimistic 14-16 million, while another see you predicting insane figures of 22-25 million.

I can't see it Crazzy. I'll go region by region:

Japan:

2008 - Sony sells less than 1 million PS3s in Japan.

2009 -

Jan-March

Sony can't prices because they just laid of 18,000 people in their current fiscal year and the company is pretty much guarenteed to lose money, so they can't lose more by selling more PS3s at a lower cost. January sales will be down at similar levels to December 08' vs. December 07' sales, now that White Knight Chronciles is out without picking PS3 above 50k for the week.

There are a few significant titles in here, but nothing to pick up sales like Gundam Musou in 2007

March

DS is probably going to get Dragon Quest IX at the end of the month. It has the most preorders of any game I've ever seen in Japan, and even though its not on Wii, the insurgency of RPG fans back to Nintendo platforms, with the realization that more Dragon Quest (DQVI & DQX) and Monster Hunter (MH3, MH port) should mean less gamers will buy a PS3.

April-June

Sony probably will drop the PS3 price cut in Japan here. That should push sales up to ~20k per week, depending on how the release schedule shapes up. At the same time, I figure Star Ocean 4 will release for Xbox 360 and cut a bit in PS3 sales here. Nintendo will probably have Wii Sports Resort or Punch Out ready to steal some thunder away too in this quarter.

July-September

PSP will probably get another revision, and DS will probably another wave of big titles. Wii will probably have a few significant (200k+) third party titles pop up here too (the 200k+ 3rd party games in Japan have been Tales, Deca Sporta, DQ Swords, RE: UC, DBZ: BT3...and Joysound and Taiko no Tatsujin will join this holiday in Japan...and then DQX, MH3, more Tales and whatever else comes around).

Oct-December

I'd imagine FFXIII releases late December for PS3 in Japan, and that something big for Wii/DS/PSP/360 pops up to counteract it (I'd guess a 360 price drop, a second New Super Mario Brothers on DS, a third party RPG for PSP, and maybe a promising new Nintendo IP on Wii - Cosmic Walker?)

If PS3 hits say, 4 million by the end of November, FFXIII should be able to debut to sales of like 1 million units in December, and push PS3 to maybe 200k in the first week of December, and end up insuring 1.25m PS3s sell in Dec 09/Jan 10. I'm not sure that PS3 can do that though without a price drop in Japan by June.

Its also entirely possible that Wii, PSP and DS will still top PS3 for the period, as DS I think should have two more big holidays in Japan after this one, and PSP has at least one more, and Wii is still 'young'.

2010

I'd imagine 2010 will look like a mix of 2008 and 2009. A price cut for PS3, but falling hardware sales. One last DS and PSP revision early in the year as those machines start to tinker out. Xbox 360 faltering.

Toward the end of the year I'd imagine a new Xbox, DS or PSP which means exclusive games will be tied up in supporting those systems and current generation machines will falter a bit as a result.

2011

One of the three machines listed will release in 2011, further cutting into the current generation content. I think PSP-2 will be roughly as powerful as PS3, cutting into the need for PS3 as the game library begins to blossom, while DS2 and Xbox 720 offer unique experiences as well. Wii-2 and PS4 (with some kind of non-graphical update but new capability) will probably be known entities at this point as well, so people will save up to buy them in 2012.

2012

PS4/Wii 2 launch, Xbox 720 gains popularity, DS2/PSP2 begin to peak, and as a result PS3/DS/PSP are all but dead while Wii is roughly where PS2 is today in Japan.

Summary:

PS3  06' - 500k

PS3 07' - 1250k

PS3 08' - 1000k

PS3 09' - 1750k

PS3 10' - 1200k

PS3 11' - 650k

PS3 12' - 150k

PS3 total sales in Japan - 6.5m

Americas:

Sony will probably drop price in April-September 2009. Microsoft will probably respond within a month or two. I suspect Microsoft can get away with a $50 price cut against a $100 PS3 price cut right now. If the Arcade is $150, the PS2 completely dries up in the Americas as a cash cow, and it becomes more difficult to drop the PS3 price again as development for PSP2 and PS4 begins with PSP past its peak and PS3 still borderline profitable or losing money.

At any rate, console prices are currently:

PS3 - $400

Xbox 360 - $200/$300/$400

I'd expect this by the middle of 2009

PS3 - $300

Xbox 360 - $150/$250/$350

Wii is still seeing some supply issues in the Americas, and should be able to do 10-14m in 2009, and I think 360 will only be down a bit if they drop price again. PS3 will probably outsell 360 slightly in the Americas for the year. Something like 13m Wii/5m PS3/4.5m Xbox 360 in 2009.

2010 should see a Wii price drop to $150 or $200, and sales will stay near 10m. I'd imagine PS3 will cost $250 while Xbox 360 will be $100/$200/$300. Could see two of the three new machines this Nov (DS2/PSP2/720) which would hurt PS3 as the 'top graphical' machine. So I'd go Wii 10m/3.5m PS3/3.5m Xbox 360

2011 gets the last of the DS2/PSP2/720 trio, and the new Nintendo/Sony console will be announced. PS3 will be $200, 360 $79/$129/$229 and Wii $150 but with an extra game. Probably 6.5m Wii/2.25m PS3/1.5m Xbox 360

2012 DS2/PSP2 are in full swing, 720 is gaining a foothold, and PS4/Wii2 release. The consoles reach their final prices - PS3 - $100, Xbox 360 - $49/$79/$129, Wii - $100 - with two games.  Probably 3.25m Wii/1.35m PS3/500k Xbox 360

2012 Americas Summary:

Wii ~ 52.5m LTD Americas

360 ~ 25.5m LTD Americas

PS3 ~ 20m LTD Americas

Others:

2009:

Microsoft dropped price early and often in 2009...so I'd bet they won't in 2009. Sony will - probably in April since this is the region where they are closest to profiting with PS3.

PS3 sales were something like...3.5m/5.5m million in Others in 2007/2008. For 2009, I'd expect a rise to 7m on a big price cut. 2010 should see another rise - to 8m on another price cut. 2011 will be down, but not as much as the other regions due to the later launch, probably to 5.5m. I figure 2011 sees the PSP2/DS2/720 in Europe.

In 2012, the PS4/Wii 2 also launch, and that pushes PS3 down to 3m.

I figure Wii will do 13m/10m/7m/5m over the same time frame, while 360 will manage 5m/4m/2.5m/1.5m against the PS3 7m/8m/5.5m/3m.

Thats 32.5m PS3s LTD in Others at the end of 2012, 20m in the Americas, and 6.5m in Japan.

No it wont.

There is only one possible conclusion: The PS3 will sell at least 7 million units in the last week of 2008!

According to logic (you know, that thing you have no concept of?), it's far more likely that it will continue to sell in that range instead of the 200K/week that you are predicting.  Besides, even if it did, it would not dramatically increase the sales of MGS4.  Face it, it will NEVER hit 1 million in Japan.