And you derived this from the same facts that led you to conclude that the PS3 will move 100,000,000 units by 2012? I am direly afraid for the economy, then.

In next 4 years PS3 will sell on AVERAGE 20 mln. per year.

Do you READ me? =)
This doesn`t mean 20 mln. in 2009, this means 16 mln. and 24 mln. in next 2 years or 14 mln. in 2009, and 20 mln. in 2010, 22 mln. in 2011 and 24 mln. in 2012. =)

If x360 could have good boost after pricecut on Christmas 2008, WHY PS3 won`t be able to have even BIGGER boost? :)

The things that still bother me about these outrageous predicitions is that there is no consideration to how the market has changed and how it will change in the near future ...

Right now we're seeing the massive shift in developers focus from the HD consoles to the Wii that started about a year ago, and for every HD console game that is announced we're seeing 5 or 6 Wii games announced. Certainly, only 1 in 4 of these announced Wii games is particularly interesting from a quality stand point but the shear volume of games will make the Wii's 2009 and 2010 library very strong.

At the same time, whether you are ready to accept it or not, 2009 will be the begining of a shift towards PC gaming that will result in very few PC games being released on consoles after 2010. Many of the big western developers like Epic, Valve, id, and Crytec make a large portion of their money from selling middleware to other developers, and most of the middleware they produced is several years old and is inadequate for next generation games and PC games that maximize hardware that is currently on the market. These developers will want to have their next generation middleware solutions in a position where they can be marketed towards other developers early in 2010, and they will probably want to cover/hide the development costs of these solutions inside of the budget of a game or two.

A massive comeback at a time when your game library will be declining in quantity and quality of releases, or (at best) will stay stagnant, is pretty unrealistic.

14/16 million? Why would the PS3 have its best year so far in 2009 if you're expecting the economy to be lousy until Christmas?

CrazzyMAN you make honor to your name

So if MGS4 is at 650k right now, and sells 1k per week, it will take 350 weeks (2015) to reach one million.  You're truly living up to your name.

EDIT:  I just looked at the Japan numbers for MGS4.  Last week, it sold 780 copies.  That's it peak in a recent time frame.  Before that it was averaging around 500 per week, so if that average is maintained, it will take 700 weeks for it to reach 1 million copies sold.  That's roughly 14 years.  Seriously, think before you post.

NJ5,

PhalanxCO, and PS3 will continue to sell at 10-30k for rest time in Japan, LOL.

Look it's simple, there are well educated and perfectly sane market expert analysts out there who predict something similar for the long run. All the little kids who shout so much, should IMO take a little step backwards and think about this fact for a minute.

Then they will understand that outing personal insults is pretty useless. There are many factors of relevance to this question. I am better informed with regard the console peformance. If I am right or wrong with regard to the market factors I think which are most relevant remains to be seen. But considering this is a predictions website, any form of personal attack on personal believes is really out of place.

Believe me there's nothing wrong with my sanity or IQ (actually I think it's better for you we don't get onto this side-topic ).