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Forums - Sales - What Are You Thinking For This Weeks Numbers?

bigjon on 29 December 2008
Slimebeast said:
bigjon said:
Slimebeast said:
bigjon said:
I just read that ioi thinks this week will be 50% of last week.

 

 /thread

 

 huh???

 

 You made all that analyzing and thread-making in vain.

Theres nuffin to speculate about since ioi said this week will be down 50%.

 

 ioi may have data but he is not a fortune teller. He wrote that early last we based off of not data but what happened last year. I was explain why thing are different then last year. The drop will be less than last year, the question is by how much less. Zucas and I think it can do no worse than 30% drop, I said depending on certain cituations it could be as little as 15% (douptful, but possible)

Also like I said the Wii is a different beast all together, if Nintendo flooded the market the last 4 days (which they did in my area) the drops could be even less.



End of 2009 Predictions (Set, January 1st 2009)

Wii- 72 million   3rd Year Peak, better slate of releases

360- 37 million   Should trend down slightly after 3rd year peak

PS3- 29 million  Sales should pick up next year, 3rd year peak and price cut

Around the Network
Slimebeast on 29 December 2008

Just wait and see bigjon... the drop will be 50%.

Your arguments are valid, but I have a feeling ioi has a Christmas hangover and generally will just calculate x0.5 last weeks numbers instead of calling game stores for actual data samples. He's a human being after all.



bigjon on 29 December 2008
Slimebeast said:
Just wait and see bigjon... the drop will be 50%.

Your arguments are valid, but I have a feeling ioi has a Christmas hangover and generally will just calculate x0.5 last weeks numbers instead of calling game stores for actual data samples. He's a human being after all.

lol... yea, and people will see the numbers and call me a dumbass and then be shocked when we are low for every game in Dec NDP... and when I say I told you so they will say STFU... (it happened last month with WiiMusic and Wii HW sales...)

 



End of 2009 Predictions (Set, January 1st 2009)

Wii- 72 million   3rd Year Peak, better slate of releases

360- 37 million   Should trend down slightly after 3rd year peak

PS3- 29 million  Sales should pick up next year, 3rd year peak and price cut

TWRoO on 29 December 2008

It should trend similar to what it looks like in 2003.... (go check the VGC graphs yourself) but I am unsure how accurate the old data is in relation to the way the weeks fall.



bigjon on 29 December 2008
TWRoO said:
It should trend similar to what it looks like in 2003.... (go check the VGC graphs yourself) but I am unsure how accurate the old data is in relation to the way the weeks fall.

 

 edit- actually you are right, it was only a 20% drop or so in 2003 for HW....



End of 2009 Predictions (Set, January 1st 2009)

Wii- 72 million   3rd Year Peak, better slate of releases

360- 37 million   Should trend down slightly after 3rd year peak

PS3- 29 million  Sales should pick up next year, 3rd year peak and price cut

Around the Network
Slimebeast on 29 December 2008
bigjon said:
Slimebeast said:
Just wait and see bigjon... the drop will be 50%.

Your arguments are valid, but I have a feeling ioi has a Christmas hangover and generally will just calculate x0.5 last weeks numbers instead of calling game stores for actual data samples. He's a human being after all.

lol... yea, and people will see the numbers and call me a dumbass and then be shocked when we are low for every game in Dec NDP... and when I say I told you so they will say STFU... (it happened last month with WiiMusic and Wii HW sales...)

 

 

 lol, exactly!



Oyvoyvoyv on 29 December 2008
Slimebeast said:
Just wait and see bigjon... the drop will be 50%.

Your arguments are valid, but I have a feeling ioi has a Christmas hangover and generally will just calculate x0.5 last weeks numbers instead of calling game stores for actual data samples. He's a human being after all.

 

 There's no way that's going to be the case. I mean, each SW game won't see a 50% drop. MKWii might see 80%, and Wii Fit actually 10% boost (of course, this won't happen).

 

OT: Good analysis. Let's hope it comes true



http://www.vgchartz.com/games/userreviewdisp.php?id=261

That is VGChartz LONGEST review. And it's NOT Cute Kitten DS

bigjon on 29 December 2008

ok maybe not...
No software for NA that far back but total HW

week ending dec 20 2003 - Total 2,186,779
week ending dec 27 2003 - Total 1,721,449

yea... that pretty much fits mine and Zucas's theory on this one. Also what I said about the Wii could close this gap even more.



End of 2009 Predictions (Set, January 1st 2009)

Wii- 72 million   3rd Year Peak, better slate of releases

360- 37 million   Should trend down slightly after 3rd year peak

PS3- 29 million  Sales should pick up next year, 3rd year peak and price cut

TWRoO on 29 December 2008
bigjon said:
TWRoO said:
It should trend similar to what it looks like in 2003.... (go check the VGC graphs yourself) but I am unsure how accurate the old data is in relation to the way the weeks fall.

 

 edit- actually you are right, it was only a 20% drop or so in 2003 for HW....

Actually ioi has been collecting retailer data for a lot longer than you think.... it's just the website only started 2-3 years ago, he made a post in the early days of the website saying he had been collecting data as a hobby for 8 years.... and that post must be 2 years old now.

 



colonelstubbs on 29 December 2008

I predict the same as last week

Wii - huge
360- big
PS3- good



I hope my 360 doesn't RRoD
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