I wasn't trying to..i was attacking the justification not the main point , that's a whole other debate .

Depending on the game, 500k can be a success on any system.

It all depends on how much it cost to develop and market the game. I mean, it's stupid to believe that every game needs 1m to profit on the HD consoles.

Okay, that wasn't clear in your comments.

wii
500k 1st party = underperformed (profit but not to what nintendo wants)
500k 3rd party = huge success (huge profit)

ps3/360
500k 1st party = underperformed (no profit)
500k 3rd breaking even i.e. no profit (avg hd games)

also Zelda is an establish IP not only the original core player buy them but younger generation continue to buy them becuase its an established IP and will always sell in the millions.

^That sums it up. The weird thing is that certain third parties are making a quick buck on the Wii to fund their efforts for the 360/PS3, many of which were money losers!

On the arguement about Wii and new IPs and all that....Red Steel sold a million. Benga Benga pointed that out himself.

"On the arguement about Wii and new IPs and all that....Red Steel sold a million. Benga Benga pointed that out himself."

But it was a launch title. That magically negates that.

But seriously, the fact that it sold that much as a new IP and a shooter shows that the audience is there for the Conduit.

There are a few things that need to happen for the Conduit to sell very well:

1. Good cover art.
   "You can not judge a book by its cover." What a load of crap. Good cover art will increase sales. People looking at the cover must be able to know what the game is about immediately. Ever take a look at the cover of Boom Blox? Is it obvious what the game is about? Would a new gamer be able to tell it was a good game without reading reviews? On a rack in best buy, you need to stand out and grab the attention of people that have never heard of the game before. People like me will go and find the Conduit even if it was not on the shelf. The cover is not for my benefit. 
2. Effective Advertising.
   People that frequent internet sites like this do not need to know about this game. All of us know about it. The advertising has to be aimed at people that own a Wii but do not go to sites like this one. Coming soon displays in gaming stores would be best. Teaser ads in magazines, newspapers, TV, would be great, but expensive.
   
3. Lots of Copies + Big Display
   If you want it to sell like a big name game, treat it as such. Have lots of copies available and, if possible, make sure it has its own display right at the store entrance. If people believe it is a big game they will buy it. As an example, I went to Future Shop (Canada) after Christmas, with the intention of buying CODWaW. No big display. No copies in the racks. No place holder in the racks. Now the urge is gone and I might buy it later or I might not.
4. Demos
   Demos running in game stores would be awesome. People seeing it being played would be great.
   Downloadable demos from Nintendo (Wii Shop Channel) would help. Even if it was just a game play movie (like MP3) it would be very helpful, if the quality is good enough to make the game shine.

Considering that the install base will be about 50 million when the game is released, it is not unlikely to see this game do 500K in the first 3-4 months. That is only 1% of the install base. RE4 did better than that with only half the install base, and it was already available on GCN, PS2, and PC at the time. This shows that the consumers are there. An attach rate 5% (1 in 20) would mean sales of 2.5M. That should be a minimum goal for Sega.

Sega is holding all the cards. If they have the guts to push this game, they could have a real winner on their hands.