I was thinking that it would be ncie to see some of these so called "game analysts" in action and just how wrong they tend to be. So I figured we should start a thread where we have predictions from sites, developers, game analysts, CEO executives etc...that were dead wrong, or that are not going to pan out.

Here is one I found to start the ball rolling.

http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=12890

Prediction made on Feb 26, 2007 by Screen Digest -  "PS3 To Lead Through 2010, Wii 'Great Unknown'"

The chart below explains all -

Take a look at these fabulous examples of precognitive powers.




Strategy Analytics [Jul-05] (Worldwide Through 2012)
Sony PS3 - 121.8 million (61%)
Xbox 360 - 58.8 million (30%)
Nintendo Wii - 18 million (9%)
Total - 198.6 million

Kagan Research (U.S. Through 2010)
Sony PS3 - 56.5%
Xbox 360 - 28.5%
Nintendo Wii - 15%

Piper Jaffray (U.S. Through 2008)
Xbox 360 - 19.6 million (48.3%)
Sony PS3 - 15.5 million (38.2%)
Nintendo Wii - 5.5 million (13.5%)
Total - 40.6 million

Citigroup (U.S. Through 2008)
Xbox 360 - 19.8 million
Sony PS3 - 11.0 million

UBS [Jan-06] (U.S. Through 2009)
Sony PS3 - 23 million (43%)
Xbox 360 - 20 million (38%)
Nintendo Wii - 10 million (19%)
Total - 53 million

Friedman Billings Ramsey (U.S. Through 2010)
Xbox 360 - 24.6 million (40.7%)
Sony PS3 - 23.3 million (38.6%)
Nintendo Wii - 12.5 million (20.7%)
Total - 60.4 million

In-Stat (Worldwide Through 2010)
Sony PS3 - 50%
Xbox 360 - 28.6%
Nintendo Wii - 21.2%

Wedbush Morgan Securities (U.S. and Europe Through 2010)
Sony PS3 - 45%
Xbox 360 - 35%
Nintendo Wii - 20%

Merrill Lynch (Worldwide Through 2008)
Xbox 360 - 47%
Sony PS3 - 33%
Nintendo Wii - 20%

IDG (U.S. Through 2008)
Xbox 360 - 15.5 million (43.3%)
Sony PS3 - 13.5 million (37.7%)
Nintendo Wii - 6.8 million (19.0%)
Total - 35.8 million

P.J. McNealy (Worldwide Through 2007)
Xbox 360 - 21 to 23 million
Sony PS3 - 13 to 16 million
Nintendo Wii - 12 to 14 million

Yankee Group (North America Through 2011)
Sony PS3 - 30 million (44%)
Xbox 360 - 27 million (40%)
Nintendo Wii - 11 million (16%)
Total - 68 million

Nomura Securities (Worldwide Through 2011)
Sony PS3 - 71 million
Nintendo Wii - 40 million

Enterbrain / Famitsu (Worldwide Through 2009)
Sony PS3 - 34 million (39.1%)
Xbox 360 - 28 million (32.2%)
Nintendo Wii - 25 million (28.7%)
Total - 87 million

IDG (North America Through 2010)
Xbox 360 - 23.9 million (39.2%)
Sony PS3 - 23.5 million (38.5%)
Nintendo Wii - 13.6 million (22.3%)
Total - 61 million

Merrill Lynch (Worldwide Through March 2011)
Xbox 360 - 39%
Sony PS3 - 34%
Nintendo Wii - 27%

Strategy Analytics [Nov-06] (Worldwide Through 2012)
Sony PS3 - 121.8 million (59.47%)
Xbox 360 - 59.7 million (29.15%)
Nintendo Wii - 23.3 million (11.38%)
Total - 204.8 million

SFG Research (North America Through 2010)
Xbox 360 - 29.4 million (43.8%)
Sony PS3 - 24.2 million (36.1%)
Nintendo Wii - 13.5 million (20.1%)
Total - 67.1 million

SFG Research (Worldwide Through 2010)
Sony PS3 - 62 million (46.6%)
Xbox 360 - 46 million (34.6%)
Nintendo Wii - 25 million (18.8%)
Total - 133 million

Screen Digest (U.S. Through 2010)
Xbox 360 - 42%
Sony PS3 - 38%
Nintendo Wii - 20%

Screen Digest (Japan Through 2010)
Sony PS3 - 64%
Nintendo Wii - 25%
Xbox 360 - 11%

IDC (Worldwide Through 2008)
Nintendo Wii - 32.1 million (37%)
Xbox 360 - 30.4 million (35%)
Sony PS3 - 24.5 million (28%)
Total - 87 million

UBS [May-07] (U.S. Through 2010)
Xbox 360 - 22 million (35.5%)
Sony PS3 - 21 million (33.9%)
Nintendo Wii - 19 million (30.6%)
Tolal - 62 million

Wow Viper1. Thats a very impressive list of screwy predictions. some big names on the list too... Where did you find this? or are you tracking it yourself as you see it?

I notice that most are giving the lead to PS3. I guess they just figure that PS2 was big so PS3 will be big too... No real analysis there. I'm shocked at how little sales Wii is being given credit for. I guess no one had the slightest idea that something different will sell...

well it only looks crazy for japan, dis.

but wii should have a higher market share. but size comparsion between ps3 and 360 looks about right for 2011

 Nobody knew how big the wii was going to explode so don't act like you did. Hell, nintendo fanboys didn't even think it was going to be as big as it has been! And I remember all the 360 fanboys laughing at how the PS3 was losing to the wii, but guess what happened...

I tracked most of those myself but copy/pasted from another person who had done the same but had them readily available on the Internet (most of my saved data is still in article form).

Solid, I think it's rather fair to state that even prior to Wii's release it was destined to surpass the market share and install base of the GC while almost none of those predictions allude to such events.   Some of those were even published well after the Wii was an established success.

Wow, alot of those "analyst" pretty much said "Nintendo's fucked" strait from the get go...

Wii is wrong on all teritories. 

I had no clue wii is going to blow up...hell I still somewhat don't understand how come wii sells that much this holiday season since none of the games that media is hyping are on the Wii.

However I am not an analyst, nor do I get paid to give advice on future trends on the industry. Those people do however...

While it's true no one expected Wii would sell like this before it is released, the prediction provided by OP was made 3 months after Wii and PS3 were both released.