I am probably going to give this more attention than it deserves. But here is a point-by-point rebuttal of what Lanjiaona said:
- Any bubble bursts just as it reaches its biggest size. And the Wii is now selling in massively unsustainable numbers. It just cannot go on.
Actually, the DS already proved that this is not the case ... that sales can continue to increase above record levels. And the Xbox 360's sales have been up each holiday season over its previous one.
- The penetration of HDTVs has increased massively over the last two years. Thus cruelly exposing the Wii’s last generation graphics to far more people.
Actually, HDTV sales slowed this holiday season.
Actually, only the Arcade model is cheaper. It didn't cause a massive shift in sales in Europe and has not caused one in North America. It costs another $100 (or $50 more than the Wii) to get what is needed to fully enjoy the Xbox 360 experience.
- The Xbox 360 is a huge amount better than the Wii. It has far more games and vastly more good games. And it has Live, by far the best online gaming portal. Gradually the public will come round to understanding these realities.
Actually, not everyone plays FPSs, Sports, or RPGs. Also a lot of people don't like to pay $50 per year to play on-line games.
- The Wii has a very weak game library. The first party games, a few good third party games. Then lots of dross shovel ware. And game consoles are for playing games.
Actually, the mixed game library is a sign of industry leader.
- Nintendo have now rolled out all their great and famous properties on the Wii. So they have very few places left to go for the stream of AAA titles needed to sustain a platform.
Actually, the Zelda was a port of a GC title, not an original one. And many IPs -- from Star Fox to Pikimin to Kid Icarus to Kirby --- have not made full-fledged Wii appearances yet. (And the PS3 and Xbox 360 have also pubished most of their iconic titles).
- The Wii is not making much money for many publishers so they are voting with their feet and allocating their resources to platforms that will make them money.
Actually, publishers seem to be going the other way. I cannot think of one publsher that has backed off of Wii support (some have not supported it but never supported it).
- Most of the Wii customer base is the very casual “toy” market. They will be very fickle as they move onto the next “must have” trend. The Wii will become tired.
Actually, demand has been so high that supply has been constrinated, keeping the Wii a "must have" for so long that it has passed fad status.
- Money is getting a lot tighter as the world tips into recession. Casual frippery, like most Wii purchases, will be an early casualty.
Actually, the Wii has racked up record sales. And the complete system price ($250) and games (topping out at $50) are cheapest of the three current consoles.
- Most people likely to buy a Wii already have. In terms of market penetration Nintendo are now going to suffer from the law of diminishing returns.
Actually, it is still roughly 80M behind the PS2 -- which had many casual users. And there are new markets such as China and India in which to sell consoles.
Mike from Morgantown
