*~Onna76~* said: I haven't read much of this thread as I know for sure 90% of the posts contains flame baits anyway. I'd like to say what I think and that's an "objective opinion".
I don't think the WII will win. I give the WII a lifespan of 2 or 3 years and then the console becomes really outdated and Nintendo needs to come up with another console. Then it depends of how much it will cost Nintendo to create a new console with improved sensor motion (at times they do suck), a harddrive included and High Defenition supported or to say... "next gen".
Around that time it's counterparts Microsoft and Sony Playstation have dropped the price a few times, most likely, so then it really depends on what kind of price tag the "next gen" WII will have and if people around that time are still interested in a new Nintendo console. Perhaps the new console will get a new name and that means... new hardware sales. Unless the name continues to be "WII" then the WII sales might continue from that point. Still if the name will become WII 2, (same with PS, PS2, PS3) Nintendo is starting with new hardware sales while the 360 and PS3 are continueing with their own hardware sales. Considering the fact Sony tells us the PS3 will have a lifespan of about 10 years.
If the recent WII continues to excist for longer, which I highly doubt, then perhaps it will win... but still in the long run I don't think the WII can keep up the sales it has right now. To think all the major Nintendo titles have already been released within a time range of 1,5 - 2 years, while the Gamecube took over 4 years to accomplish that. What will Nintendo have in store then after these 2 years? Another Zelda? Mario Platform? 3rd party developers still as enthusiastic as they are right now?
Of course no one can really predict the future with that, but I think the future of the WII is just as risky as everyone was thinking about the excistence of the WII to begin with. |
Oh no, not you too? Why the hell would Nintendo release a Wii2 if the Wii is still selling like gangbusters? Why the hell would the Wii seem outdated 2-3 years from now whenthe PS3 and Xbox360 will be exactly as powerful as today?
Hardware power has never determined the lifespan of a console. The only thing that determines the lifespan of a console is sales. The reason why the PS2 is lasting so long is simple. The install base of the PS2 is 120 million. Developers can create a X360 game that will reach 10 million people or a PS2 game that can reach 120 million. This is the only reason the PS2 lasted long, just like the PS1 before it, and the SNES before it, and the NES before it. The PS3 needs good sales FIRST, then when it gets the sales it will get the long lifespan.
Even if Nintendo decides in a moment of complete stupidity to release a Wii2 next year (that would be 2 years from the release of the Wii) the Wii will still have sales of 40 million + and it will still be the most viable platform (bar the DS) to release new games on. As long as there is an install base, developers will support it. Whether they "tire" of it or not.
The only thing that can stop this picture is the entire world suddenly deciding that the Wii is no good. This is the only life line that PS3 and Xbox fans have. But even if everyone in the world suddenly decide they want super-realistic graphics, games will still be made for the Wii and people will still buy them.
If Wii sales suddenly fall over in 2008, then I will look at the Wii doom and gloom scenarios and I will happily eat crow. Until then, the odds are firmly in Nintendo's favour.