It costs too much nowadays to launch a console. They would be better off continuing to revise the consoles instead.

Game Budgets getting larger to make games for a smaller market (HD owners, or even smaller 1080p owners) = MASSIVE DAMAGE to the entire industry. Sony and MS are hurting gaming.

Profit eliminated, less games being made. Wii Ware, XBLA, and PSN are not viable replacements in the large scale, because even fewer people are willing or desire purchasing online (you can get free games online, many better than ondemand offerings).

@ Soriku
Patchter for the first time in his life is making some type of point, and if his theory is correct I see microsoft in trouble. We may see 100million wii's sold and 80million ps3's but if there is a "wii hd that does everything 360 does" Then its in trouble, 360 might actually stop around 40million. This is something to watch.

Don't you think 80 million is pushing it Hus

Oops, sorry leo-j, i was just thinking about Hus and, sorry just a mistake, but isn't 80 mil pushing it?

Well it might be pushing it, you saw the ps2 install base, and obviously it seems that there is a chance that it can push 80 million. I dont know if it does or if it doesnt, Im just "pulling it out of my ass" but I dont see the ps3 that far behind(or ahead) of the wii in the long term, 30 million behind at most, and 10milllion ahead at most. Its to early to call who will win and who wont win, nintendo is playing there cards right at this time.

 I don't agree about the sales but about the possibility of a WII 2 with HD.

Why?

As I pointed out in an earlier post there is a number of reasons why they shouldn't do a Wii HD in 2009. A Wii HD needs more Horsepower, that means that a game that is made for Wii HD can't be played on the "first" Wii. That would leave, at that time, a 30 million+ (if not 35+) userbase that is going to be angry that Nintendo killed of the Wii to early. It would also be strange to kill of the Wii in 2009 because of price point. If the sales is going down Nintendo has the possibility to start pushing the Wii as a real cheap system, 99 USD at this time shouldn't theoretical be impossible. Then they could ride on that price for another year and release a Wii HD in 2010.

I can't understand this "max 3 years lifespann" theory, when Nintendo for the first time since NES has a real possibility to start improving their userbase and their fanbase. To kill of the Wii to early, even if the sales will go down (hardware), is to destroy that fanbase. Nintendo can after march 2008 suddently slow down to Microsoft numbers WW (not going to happen because of Japan, but anyway) and still reach 40 millions WW if they keep the system out untill 2010-11. That is SNES numbers! So why should Nintendo be that stupid that they release a new system as early as 2009 (3 years lifespann)?

The biggest difference between PS2 and PS3: 300 dollars.

if the Wii 2 comes out in 2009 I will eat my hat.

No, I will eat all my clothes, and live the rest of my life as a naked beggar.

Just give it up. Even if for some reason the Wii sales drop like a rock at the beginning of 2008, it takes time to design a new console. Nintendo are prepared to ride the Wii for as long as it has juice. Since the Wii is set to overtake the Gamecube worldwide before the year is done, and the Gamecube lasted for five years, why would Nintendo be crazy enough to create a Wii 2 after 3 years?

I agree with robjoh (and many others on this forum...).

Saying that there will be a Wii HD in a few years' time is ignoring waaaaaaay more than I think it is reasonable to ignore.

I know these points have been said many many times in the past, and I feel like I am kicking a dead horse by repeating them, BUT:

1) The Wii currently is outselling the HD consoles, even though it is less powerful than them. Why would Nintendo release something that the market has shown they don't care about at this point?

2) Nintendo would be alienating so many of their users by adding HD possibility. The most I could see them doing is adding DVD playback functionality and hard drive support (external). Both are probably achievable through firmware/WiiWare updates (to not alienate current users) and both would add functionality.

Anything that the current Wiis out there are incapable of, on the other hand, I do not see them doing until AT LEAST aught eleven.

3) Why should they? Saying "Oh, in three years people will expect more graphics from their Wii" is like me saying "Oh, in three years people will expect a WiiMote on their 360". While some might, overall people will not - they didn't buy a Wii expecting HD graphics, why would they automagically require them a few years from now?

4) I mean, really? A successful console that only lasts 3 years on the market before being replaced? Why in the world would that ever happen? Is there /ANY/ prior occurrence of that happening? [seriously, I would like to know if there is].