Xbox 360 possible hardware changes:
- Wireless
- Increased HDD size
- Process shrinks
We've seen a small change to the hardware with the introduction of Jasper (65nm GPU) to go alongside the 65nm CPU (Falcon update), so thats nothing major. The console still consumes ~105W of power so its unlikely they will progress to a slim model this year unless they accellerate the process shrinks and combine the CPU/GPU before the end of the year.
I can see them wanting to increase the value of their Elite/Premium SKUs rather than reducing their price this year. They have moved their production of the Arcade SKUs entirely to FDOU and the Premiums/Elites are all produced solely by CSON. They have also moved to deliver twice yearly updates to the firmware rather than once yearly so these two factors gives them an opportunity to move towards a mid generational refresh towards the end of Q2 when they don't have as much stock to cycle through.
Wireless
I know its been said before, but every year this becomes an even more important factor. More laptops are sold, more wireless modems are aquired and more people are buying their 2nd or 3rd Xbox 360 where they may not have access to a wired connection. Theres also the incentive that adding this to the console will sway some people to move up from the cheaper Arcade unit to the profitable Premium or Elite SKU. They also have an opportunity to allow two Xbox 360s to connect via wireless to allow people to do local multi-player easier, and encourage more people to purchase Xbox 360s to play with their friends.
Increase HDD size
Too sell content, they have to give people the space to store it. Between movie downloads, installs, and possible Xbox 360 full retail game downloads they will need to give people more space. Also by keeping the size of the Arcade upgrades at say 60GB and increasing the stock HDD size on the Premium to between 120-180gb its another incentive for consumers to go straight to the premium SKU. Furthermore users will be able to download much more content and it will give current Xbox 360 owners with older models to purchase new systems. You can already purchase a 160GB HDD for $5 more than an 80GB and a 320GB HDD for a mere $20 more than that. By midway through next year you will not be able to buy a <100GB Laptop HDD on Newegg.
Process Shrinks
There are always rumours. Actually given that the 40nm process at TSMC was actually producted ahead of schedule and that the Xbox 360 is being sold at a record rate, this may be all the incentive they need to increase the rate of hardware revisions to get the cost down quicker. But they do have a lot of work to do, some obvious changes would be to combine the ED-Ram and Xenos GPU onto the same die because if they don't they will soon be pad limited by the memory interface etc on the GPU. The obvious move here is a simple optical shrink to 55nm and combine the two onto the same die.
Key event
The mid year firmware update. This may sound funny, but thats when the Live showtime upgrade is set to go live to allow people to actually participate in game shows. This is important for three key reasons, 1. It supports Netflix and other live services by giving people even more value from a Live gold subscription. 2. Its a permament source of revenue if they aquire exclusivity. Simply multiply X(millions of users) by $40 and however many years you care to use. 3. Its their first real attempt to tap into the wider general and even non-gaming markets.
So what do you think?
Tease.
It really depends on the cooling solution and net heat output. You saw how little the power consumption dropped from the 90nm to 65nm process on the power hungry GPU. Though there is hope, rumours suggest Microsoft is looking at alternative cooling solutions.
