It won't happen unless the exclusives are attractively compensated for by the platform holder.   Yes, some dev like Valve will not bother with programming for the more complex PS3, but most dev will not ignore the 20-30 million PS3 user base in 09.

 

I don't think it will. The exclusivity line requires at least a 50 million unit lead over its competitor. This is never going to happen. Whichever console wins the HD wars, it won't be by more than 10 million units, so neither will ever justify third party exclusivity without moneyhatting.

Hypothetically, 100 million sold, with fewer than 50 million PS3s on the market is what I think would be the exclusivity line.

Not unless the 360 has a VERY, VERY good 09' year. Like, outselling the ps3 2:1 the whole of next year.
I'm still confused about the whole wii thing. Well, I am very mad at nintendo. They are going to get really cocky next gen. Mark my words.

In order for MS to get that kind of a user base advantage, they'd need both Sony and Nintendo to make some really huge gaffes AND they'd have to bring something new and revolutionary to the market to capitalize on it. As Microsoft is not a very creative or innovative company at all, I don't see this happening.

The only reason MS can even claim a distant second is because of Sony's blunders; however, things didn't run full circle because Nintendo came in and sucked up the market share nearly as fast as Sony lost it.

Even if Nintendo had designed the Wii as just another HD console and its sales weren't as strong, MS still wouldn't have enough market share to merit that kind of exclusivity.

Infamy79 said: Given HD games are generally a 2+ year project the developers are having to make these predictions now and I think we'll see a flow on effect from that starting towards the end of 2009. For a small studio wanting to make an HD title they see the PS3 clearly in 3rd place, selling far less software than the 360, having higher production costs and far more difficult development programming for the cell and that adds up to a lot of reasons to focus on the 360. Especially when you see the results of Haze and Lair, that's going to scare a lot of developers away no matter how you want to twist it. These are all going to cost Sony dearly in the long run. In the past developers had to work with the underpowered and difficult to program for PS2 simply because of the massive market share it had, but this time around it can simply be looked over as an afterthought because there are too many attractive alternatives available.

That's an oxymoron.

There are no small HD studios.

If a stuido is small, then they're making a game on Wii, or PSN/XBLA/WiiWare

If a studio is making HD games, then it's on PS360PC. 

The only reason the PS2 had all the exclusive games is because it sold 5x better than it's competitor.  Looking at sales, there's no reason to have a 360 game exclusive or a PS3 game exclusive, since sales are relatively close, at least much more than the PS2 and XBOX. 

And if you're going to make an HD game on either platform, spending more money to almost double the possible userbase is stupidly stupid.  This will most likely never happen.

DMeisterJ said: Infamy79 said: Given HD games are generally a 2+ year project the developers are having to make these predictions now and I think we'll see a flow on effect from that starting towards the end of 2009. For a small studio wanting to make an HD title they see the PS3 clearly in 3rd place, selling far less software than the 360, having higher production costs and far more difficult development programming for the cell and that adds up to a lot of reasons to focus on the 360. Especially when you see the results of Haze and Lair, that's going to scare a lot of developers away no matter how you want to twist it. These are all going to cost Sony dearly in the long run. In the past developers had to work with the underpowered and difficult to program for PS2 simply because of the massive market share it had, but this time around it can simply be looked over as an afterthought because there are too many attractive alternatives available. That's an oxymoron. There are no small HD studios. If a stuido is small, then they're making a game on Wii, or PSN/XBLA/WiiWare If a studio is making HD games, then it's on PS360PC.  The only reason the PS2 had all the exclusive games is because it sold 5x better than it's competitor.  Looking at sales, there's no reason to have a 360 game exclusive or a PS3 game exclusive, since sales are relatively close, at least much more than the PS2 and XBOX.  And if you're going to make an HD game on either platform, spending more money to almost double the possible userbase is stupidly stupid.  This will most likely never happen.

 

Two Words - Media Molecule

Noone really cares about what happens with the 3rd rate games. Its a question of where games like Kingdom Hearts go that really needs to be answered. The exclusivity line in this case is making it cheap enough to be economical for Microsoft to moneyhat a few more games. If we get a few 5 page+ threads about games Microsoft moneyhatted then we know they're doing some real damage.

Most western developed action games do best in the US/UK market. Relative to those markets, the 360 is much further ahead of the PS3 then in overal world wide numbers.

Infamy79 said: DMeisterJ said: Infamy79 said: Given HD games are generally a 2+ year project the developers are having to make these predictions now and I think we'll see a flow on effect from that starting towards the end of 2009. For a small studio wanting to make an HD title they see the PS3 clearly in 3rd place, selling far less software than the 360, having higher production costs and far more difficult development programming for the cell and that adds up to a lot of reasons to focus on the 360. Especially when you see the results of Haze and Lair, that's going to scare a lot of developers away no matter how you want to twist it. These are all going to cost Sony dearly in the long run. In the past developers had to work with the underpowered and difficult to program for PS2 simply because of the massive market share it had, but this time around it can simply be looked over as an afterthought because there are too many attractive alternatives available. That's an oxymoron. There are no small HD studios. If a stuido is small, then they're making a game on Wii, or PSN/XBLA/WiiWare If a studio is making HD games, then it's on PS360PC.  The only reason the PS2 had all the exclusive games is because it sold 5x better than it's competitor.  Looking at sales, there's no reason to have a 360 game exclusive or a PS3 game exclusive, since sales are relatively close, at least much more than the PS2 and XBOX.  And if you're going to make an HD game on either platform, spending more money to almost double the possible userbase is stupidly stupid.  This will most likely never happen. Two Words - Media Molecule

Three words - Published by SCEA.

A few more words - Hardly a "small HD developer", Sony paid good money to MM to develop that game. 

If we're talking about Microsoft publishing, and paying for the development of a game by a "Small HD team" then of course that could happen a lot, but like I said, "Small HD teams" don't exist.  Media Molecules origianl concept was actually pitched for the PS3, but was done using a PS2 dev kit. 

Pwned?

No not unless the 360 reaches PS2 popularity and its rivals struggling like last gen. Multiformat is the best approach.