The gap before was at it's biggest 7.2 mill. By Jan 01 2009 it will be 8 mill+. I expect by the time KZ2 is here it will be 9 - 9.5 mill. Couple together with and extra 1 -2 years dev time on PS3, and it's perfectly feesible to start to see 360 only developed games. A company could develop 2 games in nearly the length of 1 if they cut out PS3 development. And still sell 5 mill on 360 if the game is good and marketted right.

Just wondering but how exactly do you calculate 1 or 2 years of additional coding for ps3 version ? :)

And using Vgchartz data:

X360 games that sold more than 5 milions:

Halo 3

Cod IV

GTA IV

Gow

Most PS3 dev is a much longer process, unless you want underperforming graphics and stale game. But that said I did sya 5 mill if the game is good and gets marketed. Also remeber by Feb 360 is likely into 30 mill +

I'd imagine, though, that whatever Microsoft has to do to secure exclusivity is far less than what Sony is going to have to do in the coming months.

Well we will never know since Sony doesn't care about buying exclusive and prefers to have strongest first party lineup.

If you look at list of PS3 exclusives they are either :
a) first party
b) developed in Japan

W should expect another trend: PS3 ports will gradually become sloppy, and show up late.

Many studios, while not dropping support for the PS3, will treat it as an afterthought. The lead platform will be the 360. Once the game is ready and tested on the 360 it will be released to retail while at the same time running a PS3 port as cheaply as possible. The PS3 games will show up a few months later and will be underwhelming and buggy.

We are seeing this trend already with multiple titles. Some are AAA like Fallout 3.

I don't think Sony will let them get that far ahead sales wise.
I have said many times that there will be a price cut 09 and I stand by that.

Blu-ray = ability to CREATE BIG WORLDS.
HDD support in each model = ability to optimize game better(HDD cashing).

And there is NO way, that developers will IGNORE PS3 userbase(it will pass xbox/GC userbase by the end of 2009).
Same of`course goes to x360(IF sales won`t decline - 4th year after all).

Developers already started to make games first on PS3, even when userbase wasn`t so big on PS3.

There is more chance, that Japanese developers will support more PS3/Wii, since x360 just FAIL to have good sales in Japan.

True, but only for games that have no prospects of releasing in the west (and there are many of those, though most of us here don't care about those). For most games that get to be released in the west, no sane developer will use the PS3 as a lead platform.

Here is why: The 360 and PC have almost identical architectures. The Wii has a failrly traditional architecture as well - not too far from that of a low powered PC.  In contrast - the PS3 is a very strange beast that need very special skills and very different approch to software developement.

For a studio to take on the PS3 as a leading platform means that they are going to run into trouble with all of the rest of the systems. In contrast, taking the 360, PC or even Wii as the lead platform makes the code reasonably portable to the other "tranditional" platforms and you limit your risk to the platform that is less than 10% of the market (including PCs).

Two more points:

1. Japan is not what it used to be. It is only 5% of the HW console sales WW.

2. I would take Sony's statement that "developers are starting to use the PS3 as the leading platform" with a very big grain of salt and focus on the word "starting" - 1 studio doing it is a start.