I never finished the game, and for my part I hated most of the characters I met up to that point...but this whole biker game GTA style thing....it just looks awesome!

I sold the game though. Depending on when the pack finally comes out I may or may not be able to re-afford the game. (Anytime in March; Star Ocean 4 and RE5.) 

 I 100% agree with this statement

The trailer was one of the best things at the boring ass VGA's, so yes, M$ will have my moniez.

The first installment of the two expansions will retail for $20. At least that is what one retailer has the price listed at. You can find the link on these forums. That said this is the math. For each expansion.

Assuming your math is correct. The formula would be 50,000,000/($20x.7)=3.6 mil

Which given that both expansions are priced the same equals out to 1.8 mil per expansion. That in turn given this sites numbers which says the game has sold currently 6.38 mil means that each expansion must have an attach rate of 28%. Factoring in additional sales given that last tracked week in North America the game sold 30,000 copies it is safe to assume the game may have sold seven million copies of the game by the launch of the first expansion. That would equate to perhaps 25%.

Honestly I am unsure as to whether it can actually do that. Given that the shivering aisles sold only 7% according to this site. However it is probably safe to say that the map packs for Halo are probably a better qualifier. That said it may be a near run thing. This is not a guaranteed winner, but as always that is dependent on the quality. If the expansion is closer to a Vice City in scope, and nuance. The expansion could very well sell closer to a 40% attach rate especially if the expansion package comes in a physical format.

So much is an unknown. We really need to know more about the expansion before we can judge. If it is closer to a full fledged Grand Theft Auto game it should succeed. However if it is short of ten hours of content it could really end up being a bragging right.

Thanks for that, i just assumed a price didn't really have a clue.

Importantly I think that if they don't reach these targets MS still wins, as they can qualify for a refund from take-two.

MS will win also because more copies of GTA4 will sell to those that already sold their copy or people who did not buy it the first time.

Remember also that every time these DLC expansions launch there is going to be a larger Xbox360 install base to be lured into buying GTA4.

(my personal opinion is that they will sell around 4 million expansion packs total)

I think that 20 bucks is just way too high a price point. I mean if there are 2 expansions at 20 each thats more or less a full different game. I would find it hard to justify paying 20 bucks for an expansion of a game I still haven't quite finished after buying it day one.

IMO the highest price point for DLC that really justifies the purchase is 10 bucks, anything more then that I'd rather just get another different game. That is of course assuming that I owned the 360 version instead of the PS3 version, but I could probably sell the PS3 version and get the 360 version for a very similar price (GTA IV is like 20 bucks used a lot of places by now) so if I really cared about 20 dollar DLC it would be a wash.

Wake me when GTA V gets here or a proper GTA:SA style "expansion" comes out with a different city and truly new features.

If it sells more then two million copies I would be amazed, my guess would be 1 million until they drop the price to 10 bucks in which case something like 4 million is possible.

If, like people above are saying, MS gets 30% of the revenue from the DLC then it needs to sell almost 5 million to get their investment back (30 million on 100 million of revenue).

In a related question, has anyone been amazed or overjoyed at any paid DLC for any console game thus far? Outside the truly awesome (mainly due to their being free) Burnout content I can't think of anything impressive from any DLC this gen from any system.

I really liked this question because I too find myself to be very rarely interested in DLC to the point where I have purchased very little of it myself. In fact, the only DLC I purchased was for Folklore on the PS3; I was really into that game when I got it and decided it was worth extending for $5.00 or so.

I was really stoked for Portal:Still Alive on the 360, but to be frank the pricing and the structure of the download put me off. 1200 points ($15.00) seems logical if you don't have The Orange Box, but if you do and you just want the the Still Alive content it feels like a rip-off. Its too bad they didn't offer a download of just still alive for 400-600 points.

I seem to remember being impressed with amount of DLC the was coming out for Warhawk and MotorStorm though I never purchased any for either.

Currently I am interested to see the DLC pans out for Fallout 3, Tomb Raider:Underworld, Fable 2, Mirror's Edge, MotorStorm:Pacific Rift, Resistance 2 and LittleBigPlanet. 

There are so many PS3 fans angry about the exclusive content.
Some are even go so far to say they HATE GTA4 just because they aren't getting the additional content.
Sounds like sour grapes to me.

@CMoney

I have to agree that a lot of it is sour grapes. I expect the grapes to get more sour the closer this gets to release. For that price, and given the delay it is probably a rather significant package. I think its really going to be good value for money. Probably closer to twenty hours then ten hours, and no matter how you spin it that is good value.

I really despise the hatred being poured on this title. They often did the same with Halo 3. Going so far as to call the game an unmitigated failure. The fact that this game scored over ninety percent is proof of the quality, and notice how many of them will say things like I did not like it but I finished it. Oh really you hated the game so much you poured forty hours into it. How could I doubt their veracity.